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View Full Version : Which two hold 'em hands have the closest chance to win?


KSOT
07-02-2005, 11:03 PM
I mean two hands pre-flop with different numerical values.

The closest matchup I could find was this:

3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 49.72%
a /images/graemlins/diamond.gif t /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 49.70%

Can anyone beat that? Has this ever been tested before?

SheetWise
07-03-2005, 12:02 AM
There are a lot of ways to approach this problem. My personal software ranks the best hand of each possible 5 card draw (50!/45!) with each 2 card open, ignoring hands the openers don't participate in (weight of -0-). With that I get the two closest hands -- meaning expectation from a showdown -- to be K-3s with Q-J, which ever so slightly favors K-3s. But if you play the cards, you have to adjust (discount) hands that you will never see, such as 2-2 making 2-2-2-2 after the flop (you'd have to stick in there with low pair and three overcards), the results change.

SheetWise

SheetWise
07-03-2005, 12:15 AM
To clarify the previous post -- I wasn't matching hands in the simulation I was referencing, I was only looking for the relative strength of all openers and had no knowledge of any other cards -- pairing two hands against each other makes it easier, I've just never had that advantage when making wagering decisions.

I have a interesting question for a simulation I'm running this weekend, what rule(s) could be applied to a five card hand (deal + flop) which would ALWAYS indicate a fold on the flop (against a bet).

Can you find an exception, or add to this -

ALWAYS FOLD IF - No pair, no flush draw, no straight draw, and an overcard on the board.

SheetWise

KSOT
07-03-2005, 03:37 AM
I am confused...

The hand you posted isn't even close to even.

K /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 58.08%
J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif 41.24%