JJ Satellite Hand that makes me want to vomit all over myself.

[mojolang]

This is cut and pasted from an AIM conversation but all requisite details are contained rather concisely within

[21:30] The Cooling Board: ok, original raiser is the biggest maniac I have ever seen
[21:31] The Cooling Board: he is playing 80% of hands, and raising huge with them and even calling reraises
[21:31] The Cooling Board: second player knows this
[21:31] TheTakeover: k wait tourney ?
[21:31] The Cooling Board: 33R
[21:31] The Cooling Board: WSOP
[21:31] TheTakeover: k
[21:31] The Cooling Board: we are all in top 20 in chips
[21:39] The Cooling Board: Seat 2: CA Poppy (8430 in chips)
Seat 3: allinnoouts (5076 in chips)
Seat 5: mojo99 (14170 in chips)
Seat 6: rla1 (46410 in chips)
Seat 7: Governator (20221 in chips)
Seat 8: phoenix46 (1995 in chips)
Seat 9: gamble24/7 (4640 in chips)
[21:31] The Cooling Board: *** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mojo99 [Jc Jh]
phinster: folds
CA Poppy: folds
allinnoouts: folds
mojo99: calls 600
rla1: raises 3000 to 3600
Governator: raises 16571 to 20171 and is all-in
phoenix46: folds
gamble24/7: folds
mojo99: calls 13520 and is all-in
rla1: calls 16571
*** FLOP *** [8s 9h Kd]
*** TURN *** [8s 9h Kd] [Qd]
*** RIVER *** [8s 9h Kd Qd] [5c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
rla1: shows [Kh Td] (a pair of Kings)
Governator: shows [Ks Kc] (three of a kind, Kings)
Governator collected 12102 from side pot
mojo99: shows [Jc Jh] (a pair of Jacks)
[21:40] The Cooling Board: I almost vomited when I saw the KK
[21:40] The Cooling Board: I took like my entire time bank
[21:40] The Cooling Board:
[21:32] TheTakeover: sorta brutal but i dont love u call
[21:33] The Cooling Board: I dont either, but i figure his range is definately AK, AQ, TT-AA, maybe AJ and maybe 99 and a stretch of 88
[21:33] The Cooling Board: you fold it?
[21:34] TheTakeover: y i think so
[21:42] Tyler: ya i would fold
[21:42] Tyler: 1 big raise 1 thing but 2 huge raises is another
[21:42] The Cooling Board: dude
[21:42] The Cooling Board: the first raise literally means nothing
[21:42] The Cooling Board: it represents any 2 cards
[21:42] The Cooling Board: im not kidding
[21:42] The Cooling Board: he raised and called an all in with 46o
[21:43] The Cooling Board: so I am dealing with basically one raiser here
[21:43] The Cooling Board: and he KNOWS the other player here could have anything
[21:43] The Cooling Board: and will probably call him
[21:43] The Cooling Board: and I dont mind getting in a coiflip situation
[21:43] Tyler: ya so he would want a pretty good hand
[21:44] Tyler: not just an ak where he could eaisly lose to 46 suited
[21:44] The Cooling Board: he would definatelu play the AK there
[21:44] The Cooling Board: im pretty sure AQ as well
[21:44] The Cooling Board: ace jack is an unknown but certainly a possibility
[21:44] The Cooling Board: AA-TT same
[21:44] The Cooling Board: 99 again a possibility
[21:45] Tyler: im pretty sure i woulda folded but enevr know
[21:45] The Cooling Board: k
[21:45] The Cooling Board: I can definately see folding
[21:45] The Cooling Board: I came sooooo close to folding
[21:48] The Cooling Board: now that I think about it
[21:48] The Cooling Board: I'm not sure I can folld
[21:48] The Cooling Board: I am running some simulations
[21:48] The Cooling Board: even against AA-TT, AK and AQ
[21:48] The Cooling Board: I am only a 47% dog

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

22,957,068 games 54.922 secs 417,994 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 53.1325 % [ 00.52 00.01 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AQs, AKo-AQo }
Hand 2: 46.8675 % [ 00.46 00.01 ] { JJ }


---

4,606,015 games 7.156 secs 643,657 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 47.7736 % [ 00.47 00.01 ] { AA-99, AKs-AJs, AKo-AJo }
Hand 2: 52.2265 % [ 00.51 00.01 ] { JJ }


---

21,614,210 games 75.157 secs 287,587 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 40.6000 % [ 00.40 00.01 ] { AA-99, AKs-AJs, AKo-AJo }
Hand 2: 42.7085 % [ 00.42 00.01 ] { JJ }
Hand 3: 16.6915 % [ 00.16 00.00 ] { random }


---

156,986,378 games 588.218 secs 266,884 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 40.5959 % [ 00.40 00.01 ] { AA-99, AKs-AJs, AKo-AJo }
Hand 2: 42.7096 % [ 00.42 00.01 ] { JJ }
Hand 3: 16.6945 % [ 00.16 00.00 ] { random }




*******************

So, fold or call?

Peace,

Joe

[adanthar]

How many seats does this pay out and how many are left/what's the average stack?

Not having seen that: I would take this line with AA-KK here, but jacks are too vulnerable. It's also a pretty easy fold getting back to you precisely because it's a satellite hand.

[mojolang]

One seat, like 80 players left, 14 seats to the 650 sunday tourney

Avg stack had to be like 11-12k I am thinking?


no way is this an ***EASY*** fold by any means. I talked to double eagle about this play and he said no big deal.

Peace,

Joe

PS: as you can see, there is a very strong chance I may be getting 2-1 on my money, so that also tips the scales....

[adanthar]

OK, *1* seat and 14 650 consolation prizes? That prooobably makes it a call, I'd have to do the math.

Say there were 15 seats: easy fold, not because of what range you are against but because stealing later will be incredibly trivial.

[mojolang]

I aggree with your assessment of the multi seat satty.

Peace,

Joe