OUt of curiosity

[tolbiny]

What are the ods of a 1-1.5 bb/100 with a SD of around 16 running into a -700BB swing?

[SheetWise]

How can you know the deviation without the expectation? And in poker -- you can never have enough information to know the expectation.

SheetWise

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
What are the ods of a 1-1.5 bb/100 with a SD of around 16 running into a -700BB swing?

[/ QUOTE ]
It will happen eventually with probability 1. I think you are probably more interested in the risk of ruin starting with a 700 BB bankroll.

r = exp(-2uB/sigma^2) (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=207100&page=&view=&sb=5&o =&fpart=all&vc=1)

For 1 BB/100,
r = exp(-2 1 700/256) ~ 0.42%.

[tolbiny]

"And in poker -- you can never have enough information to know the expectation."

These are estimates as i have twice lost Poker tracker Databases to comp crashes.