20+2 Call this river?

[Freudian]

Call this river? Read on SB: Donk.

And yes, I realize I probably should have pushed the turn.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t1215)
UTG+1 (t680)
MP1 (t495)
MP2 (t585)
MP3 (t1510)
CO (t1545)
Button (t365)
SB (t780)
Hero (t825)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls t50, UTG+1 calls t50, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t200) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t125</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, SB calls t125.

Turn: (t450) K/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t200</font>, SB calls t200.

River: (t850) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB pushes 405, Hero ?

[flyingmoose]

This may be a leak, but I never fold the second nuts in a 22 when getting 3:1 on my call.

[valenzuela]

This is such an easy, easy , easy call. Lets just say theres is not a 75% chance that villain has the A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[lastchance]

Yes, and it's not close.

[Freudian]

Of course I know what the math say, and thats why I made the call. But sometimes you just know the other guy has you beat. I did here.

The only thing I could imagine a guy like this would play this way is A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. If he hit a flush/two pair on the flop he would have raised. Perhaps something with a J that he overplayed, but it is very unlikely. As is Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, but I've seen donks overplay those before.

Question is when you let your instincts overrule the math of a situation.

[11t]

I muck and hate myself for not pushing the turn.

[Matt R.]

Sounds to me like you were more than 75% sure that you were beat. If you're as confident as you sound like you are, it would be a good fold. Especially since if you call and lose, you're down to 95 chips. By the way, I like your thought process in reading his hand, and I think you're definitely beat here 75%+ of the time.

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
Sounds to me like you were more than 75% sure that you were beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Problem is that I have had a serious case of seeing monsters under the bed. So I have to force myself to ignore the warning signals to some extent or I will give up hands where I am ahead too often.

So usually when there is some doubt I let the math decide.

[lastchance]

Well, it all depends on your opponents, but I don't see without a read how you can lay this down. It's very likely villain has Qd or Td or something and was drawing to a non-nut flush the whole time.

[suited_ace]

[ QUOTE ]
Call this river? Read on SB: Donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

You said it yourself. There's one card in the whole deck that beats you. Need I say more?

[adanthar]

I am never, ever in this situation in the first place (150 on the flop, turbopush turn)...but this is a very tough hand precisely because he's telegraphing the ace the whole way.

There's only three hands he plays like this: the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, a total bluff, or a flush that now pushes as a semibluff (or there's always T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, but whatever.) I think most of the time he has the ace, but it may or may not add up to 75%.

I probably call in a 22 and fold in a 109, but I've seen this spot so rarely I might spite call anyhow.

(edit: in a 22 you're right, he may've been drawing with the 2 of diamonds for all I know so on second thought, oh well, call anyway)

[Freudian]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Call this river? Read on SB: Donk.

[/ QUOTE ]

You said it yourself. There's one card in the whole deck that beats you. Need I say more?

[/ QUOTE ]

I could have been drawing dead all the way. Not that I can go around being afraid of T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif of course.

[Freudian]

I don't think I would have gotten him to fold his A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif by pushing on the turn. Which is of course exactly why I should have done it.

At least then I could have laughed at his call instead of having him laugh at mine.