How long can you stay this hot??

[davidross]

What's the longest you have maintained an above average win rate? I am currently running over 4BB's an hour at Paradise 2/4 for 2 months playing 2 tables at a time. Just wondering if this is unusual or just the normal run of cards. I believe 2 bb's an hour is possible in these games, but 4 is probably not over the long term.

After a year of winning at 2/4 then giving it all back at 3/6 and 5/10 I made a conscious decision in early December to stay at 2/4 and play to win money. Not that I didn't want to win money before that but getting better was more important to me so I wanted to test myself against better players so I kept moving up in limits before my bankroll was really ready. I have made $3,400 since then sticking with 2/4. I withdrew a big chunk of it for my widescreen HDTV and now even if I go in the tank, I'll have that to remind me of the hot streak.

I want to ask the more experienced players out there if they knew when their game reached a new level? I really feel mine did back in the fall. I was off work for 2 months and played a lot, both live and online. I think I reached one of those stages Ray Zee mentioned in his essay, where I've stopped playing only my hand and instead read my opponents hands and play appropriately. I guess it's easy to say when the cards are falling your way. Only time will tell.

[Dynasty]

Congratualations on the good results.

I think the Vegas 4-8 games are beatable for 2+ big bets an hour so 4 big bets at two tables doesn't sound like something an expert player couldn't do online where many more hands are dealt. In fact, I think that's what you should be demanding of yourself.

As far as good streaks, my most memorable run was averaging slightly more than 5.5 big bets an hour over 13 consecutive winning sessions in the Mirage 20-40 game. When you're playing well and occassionally getting lucky, amazing things can happen.

[davidross]

I hope you're right. This run now encompasses over 50 sessions, only 11 of them for a loss.

I actually took a shot at 3/6 again tonight and had a monster $300 win. Life is great. Home theatre for my TV coming up!!!

[Ed Miller]

I'm averaging almost exactly 4 BB/hr in my 4-8 and 10-20 live games in 2003 so far. This is my best win streak so far...

[JTG51]

Oh yeah? Well, I've averaged 13 BB/hr over my last 4...... hours of 10/20. /forums/images/icons/smile.gif My best session ever.

[D.J.]

Basically, I think you can stay hot for a long time seeing how each hand dealt and each session is unique in itself, it's great when you're running good b/c you can make a ton of money in a short period of time. Just be a little smarter than me and don't blow your winnings. Over the past 6 weeks or so, I have beat 15-30 and 20-40 games for about $18K only to give it away and blow it in games that were over my head, if I could learn to play within my means I would be a lot better off financially, my best advice is to stick to a game that you can consistently beat, and maybe you'll stay hot forever. I wish I would only take my own advice.

-D.J.

[limitti]

I averaged 113BB's over my last.... hour of 5/10 in 5max table. Do you think I can expect to win in that rate in the future /forums/images/icons/cool.gif

[limitti]

Sorry.. I was talking about big blinds. So that makes 56.5 big bets.

[rigoletto]

I made the same mistake of moving up to early, but over some months now I've been beating the 2-4 games pretty consistantly (I think I average 2-3 BB/hour per table - 3-6 BB playing two tables).

I read Dynastiys recent post on PP experience, where he observed that the 5-10 games seemed softer than 3-6, so I moved straight from 2-4 to 5-10. I'm a little better than break even right now, but my loses came early in some very loose agressive games with a maniac (yes I went on semitilt :-b), and now that I've gotten the feel for it and are getting to know some of the players, the game seems very beatable to me even if I still make stupid costly plays now and then. I'm actually surprised to see some really bad players at this level (where do they get their money). The only problem is the timeframe: the early evening games (European central time) are very tight and have less fish - I believe this is a general problem (for Europeans at most sites.).

Anyway I just wanted to thank Dynasty (no, you wont get a percentage ;-))

[Homer]

Congratulations on the good run. If it keeps up much longer you won't be able to blame it on luck, instead you will have to grudgingly admit that your play has improved. /forums/images/icons/grin.gif

I laughed when I read that you are buying a home theater system with some of your winnings. I did the same thing just yesterday. It's a great feeling knowing that you can buy something nice with earnings from doing something you enjoy.

-- Homer

[davidross]

Thanks,

The new set will go in the same room the computer is in. Maybe my wife and I can be in th esame room for a change. COuld be the end of the relationship...lol.

I agree that it's nice to make some money doing something you love. I did want something to show for it too before I try to move up to a higher limit too.

[bernie]

youre winning 4BB an hour playing 2 tables at PP...

lets compare this with live sessions...

say both tables are playing about 80 hands per hour....so 160 hands per hour....

avg. hands live play per hour 35...so 160/35...about 4.5 hours to 1 in comparison

so your making maybe a little under 1BB per hour in a per hand setting...this isnt unrealistic at all

making 4BB per hour online playing 2 tables isnt a parrallel comparison to per hour live play. sure, it 'sounds' like more, but taking into consideration the volume of hands, it's really not...

something to consider...many seem to ignore this and think their doing better than they actually are.

b

[Vehn]

So you're like a millionaire in canadian $?


/forums/images/icons/wink.gif


If you look at your win rate as a function of "big bets per hand dealt" your rate is perfectly reasonable if you assume 100 hands per hour. I don't mean to brag but I have been exceding your rate significantly for about 8 months of B&M play. In the beginning I thought I was just running good and it can't keep up. Now I'm starting to think I might know what I'm doing. Or everyone else is just really really bad. Or I'm really really lucky.

[davidross]

You're not kidding about the Canadian dollar thing. I'm surprised how significant it is once I've converted it. I might think twice about moving up in limits.

I hope it is maintainable, but I'm not counting on it. Even 2 BB's would be great with the amount I play. There are certainly some very bad players out there and I'm learning to stay away from confrontation with the better players. I'll let you know in a couple of months if I'm still getting "Lucky"