Guesstimate

[vexvelour]

Hi. I've been playing poker for quite a while successfully. My major soft spot in my game is that I don't understand the math of figuring and applying odds. I've read several books on the subject, and I still find it quite confusing. I have come up with a sort-of figuring system for myself while I'm at the table, like an educated guess at my odds. However, I find myself folding winning hands sometimes when my "odds" tell me to fold. I hardly ever find myself staying in a pot too long, but this guesstimating is costing me some major pots.

Anyway, my question is this: without having to run equations through my head, is there a better way to sort of guesstimate? Am I just retarded for not learning how to figure the correct odds? If I am retarded, is there a simpler way to learn? Thanks for your help.

[Hybrid_11]

I am not entirely sure what calculations your referring to. The only thing that pops in my head is counting outs and therefore the relative chance to win.
The concept used to determine if drawing is positive ev is done by counting all outs you believe to have. The most simple would be a flopped 4 flush which puts you on a flush draw. That would leave 9 remaining cards to complete the flush theoretically. Take that number and times it by 4 and that gives you a pretty good aproximation percentage of hitting the flush on either the turn or river combined. To find the odds of hitting on the river if you missed the turn is taking the outs and multiplying by 2. Once in percentage you can calculate that in odds
So with the flush draw
On the flop : theres 9x4=36 percent to hit by the river
On the turn : 9x2=18% to hit on the river

I hope thats what you are looking for if not please be more specific

[vexvelour]

No, actually that was very helpful. I appreciate you taking the time out to explain, but there are still a couple of things I don't completely understand. To be clear, you're saying to calculate my outs and multiply by four? Why four and is this always true (ie not just flush draws)? Also why multiply by 2 on the turn? Thank you for being patient with my stupid questions.

[GTSamIAm]

That's not necessarily what you should do, but it's just a trick to help you know the percentages for each number of outs. It's not as exact as knowing the exact percentages in your head, but it's far easier. And BTW, you shouldn't just count outs, you should count partial outs. You multiply each out by the chance that you will win if you hit it. If you have, say, the king of spades and there are 3 spades on the board, there is a chance that someone might have the ace of spades and beat your flush if you hit. So instead of saying you have 9 outs, you might say, I'll win 90% of the time I hit my flush, so you would count yourself as having about 8 outs.

[Hybrid_11]

Yes the percentage you get is not completely accurate but it comes very close given the simplicity. Now i could not tell you exactly why 2 and 4 works but ill try to explain the reason to why you use 4 on the flop and 2 on the turn.
Ill go back to the flush draw of 9 outs. If we wanted to figure out the odds to hit the flush on the TURN we would multiply the number of outs by 2.
If we were to miss the flush on the turn the chance of hitting on the river like i said earlier was multiplyed outs by 2.
Since on the flop we have 2 chances to hit, the turn and river by taking the number of outs and multiplying by 4 gives you the chance that the flush will be made by the river.
I hope that makes a little more sense as to why 4 on the flop and 2 on the river. Just make sure to realize multiplying by 4 does not mean youll hit the flush on the turn 36% it means that either the turn or river will give you teh flush 36% of the time
Someone else might be able to provide the reason why the number 4 and 2 works specifically but for that i cant exactly tell you i just know its been shown that these numbers come within about 1% of the actual number so its a good quick tool.

[vexvelour]

I understand the 2- and 4 thing now. I think I mis-read the first time and your explanation helped me to see where I read wrong.

I just can't believe it's that easy to get a pretty close read of percentages. The books won't tell you that one. Thanks a lot!

[shermn27]

Personally I also use the multiply x2 and x4 to approximate my odds of making my hand, as was mentioned, these only get close and can sometimes be off by as much as 2%. For the time being I use these, but I am getting better and better at memorizing the exact odds through practice and memorization. In the long run, I would suggest doing that as well.

[vexvelour]

I agree. I just need something that is a little less fuzzy. This 4-2 rule will do perfectly for me in the limits and games that I play in currently.

[h11]

There are roughly fifty cards in a deck, so to convert the odds of getting one of X cards out of the fifty to PERCENTAGES, which refer to parts per hundred - you multiply the number per fifty - the number of outs - by two - to get the number per hundred, which is what a percentage is. If we had a different game which used a deck of 33 cards you would multiply the number of outs by three, roughly, to get the per CENTAGE of hitting on the next card. It just converts the ratio - per the number of cards in the fifty-card deck - to percentages - which are based on one hundred. To get the odds on TWO draws to get the card - turn and river - you roughly double the odds, since you have two chances, which roughly - not exactly - doubles your chance. That's where the four comes from - two times the outs to convert the fifty-card deck to the base of one hundred used in percentages - times two bites at the apple, rather than one.