Me vs. ICM

[suited_ace]

I just got eastbay's program, and there are a lot of hands where I did the exact opposite of what it tells me to do. I'll post a few here to see what you would have done, and I want you to answer without using ICM.

Let's assume no reads, just your usual $10+1 players.

1.Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t690)
BB (t1050)
UTG (t1645)
Button (t4615)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero ?

2. Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t2010)
BB (t170)
UTG (t1685)
Button (t4135)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero?

3. Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Hero (t1635)
Button (t510)
SB (t1760)
BB (t4095)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
Hero?

4. Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (7 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

CO (t2635)
Hero (t580)
SB (t115)
BB (t1185)
UTG (t640)
MP1 (t900)
MP2 (t1945)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero?

[microbet]

1. Push.

2. Push.

3. Fold.

4. Close and doesn't matter that much, but Push.


I swear I didn't touch Eastbay's program.

[Roman]

Hand 1: Push
Hand 2: Push
Hand 3: Depends on table really
Hand 4: Push

edit: I dont have ICM and dont really know exactly what it is

[valenzuela]

1. easy push.
2. very, very, very close push.
3. fold.
4. push

[Madd]

Haven't checked anything with programs, here is how it would play in a tourney:

#1 Push
#2 Push
#3 Fold
#4 If the SB had a normal stack size, I would definitely push. I do not like to show down K5o now, nevertheless it's a close push for me.

[ilya]

1, push
2, complete
3, very easy fold
4, push

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
2, complete

[/ QUOTE ]

Push the flop for 20 chips eh? I guess.

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
2, complete

[/ QUOTE ]

Push the flop for 20 chips eh? I guess.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I don't think it really matters, but might as well try.

[suited_ace]

ICM says hand #4 is a push, and it's not close. I don't care what it says, I don't like showing K5o in this spot. If the SB has half a brain, he's calling with NE2 cards in this spot.

I put hand #2 in the mix because in my experience this is the perfect situation to keep the bubble going. I ended up getting ITM with more than 3k chips thanks to the bubble running a little bit longer.

So far so good, it is indeed an amazing tool, but it's not the holy grail.

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
I put hand #2 in the mix because in my experience this is the perfect situation to keep the bubble going. I ended up getting ITM with more than 3k chips thanks to the bubble running a little bit longer.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero (t2010)
BB (t170)
UTG (t1685)
Button (t4135)

I really don't see how you gain enough value keeping this bubble alive to make it worth pitching to the shortstack. Maybe if you were the one with 4135 chips. You are basically setting up the bigstack to abuse you and UTG.

[suited_ace]

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't see how you gain enough value keeping this bubble alive to make it worth pitching to the shortstack. Maybe if you were the one with 4135 chips. You are basically setting up the bigstack to abuse you and UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's usually true, but in this case the big stack was absurdely passive, so I felt I could profit from the bubble running a little bit longer. During the bubble he raised only once, everyone folded and he showed AKs.

[Matt R.]

That's an unusual situation, and one that I think would be impossible for eastbay to model in his program.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
1, push
2, complete
3, very easy fold
4, push

[/ QUOTE ]

This is just wrong. You would NEVER complete for #2. There's still that chance that he's a donk and folds his hand (which I have seen) because he's multi-tabling and he's hit the autofold button.

Furthermore, I think #4 is very debatable. Although I'm confident that ICM results will say that this is a positive EV play, it's not the smartest move IMO. There are many plays that are +EV that I never make.

[vinyard]

[ QUOTE ]
ICM says hand #4 is a push, and it's not close. I don't care what it says, I don't like showing K5o in this spot. If the SB has half a brain, he's calling with NE2 cards in this spot.

I put hand #2 in the mix because in my experience this is the perfect situation to keep the bubble going. I ended up getting ITM with more than 3k chips thanks to the bubble running a little bit longer.

[/ QUOTE ]

As for the hands: Push, your choice**, Trivial Fold, Trivial Push.

**As for hand 2, not playing here when "it only costs you 100 chips to knock a player out" might annoy the other playes significantly. That may effect their calling standards. I likely fold this given your read on big stack.

If you (or anybody else) is not pushing that hand I consider it a leak that will significantly affect your ROI long term. I don't think eastbay's problem is the end all but the math here is pretty clear. I don't think you hurt your table image by pushing here (the BB will likely fold and if the SB calls you look like you are taking a risk to isolate the small stack and "help the table") and passing on edge's like this isn't wise.

I just busted out the program and this is a very clear push if both SB and BB are calling with any two.

[suited_ace]

[ QUOTE ]
Furthermore, I think #4 is very debatable. Although I'm confident that ICM results will say that this is a positive EV play, it's not the smartest move IMO. There are many plays that are +EV that I never make.

[/ QUOTE ]

You phrased it way better than I ever could: there are a lot of situations that are +EV, but shouldn't be done. Again: it's a great tool, but it's not the holy grail.

[lastchance]

Not pushing K5o there if your opponents don't have 00ber-loose calling ranges is a huge leak. T150 matters that much. Table image doesn't when it's going to be ruined in a few hands.

There's a reason why ICM shows that #4 is an easy push. Because it is an easy push.

BTW, I push 1, 2, and 4, Fold 3.

[valenzuela]

[ QUOTE ]


Furthermore, I think #4 is very debatable. Although I'm confident that ICM results will say that this is a positive EV play, it's not the smartest move IMO. There are many plays that are +EV that I never make.

[/ QUOTE ]

Care to explain why?

[ilya]

[ QUOTE ]

Furthermore, I think #4 is very debatable. Although I'm confident that ICM results will say that this is a positive EV play, it's not the smartest move IMO. There are many plays that are +EV that I never make.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, I didn't look carefully enough. With the SB that short, I don't mind folding here.

[brimstone1]

1) Could pick better spot, but shortstack vs. midstack... I'd say close call, and you know what that means... PUSH.
2) Push
3) Fold
4) Fold

[SuitedSixes]

1) Push (Top 40% against a random hand)
2) Push
3) Fold
4) I'm leaning towards push.

[cha59]

1. Push

2. Push

3. Fold

4. Push

[david050173]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Furthermore, I think #4 is very debatable. Although I'm confident that ICM results will say that this is a positive EV play, it's not the smartest move IMO. There are many plays that are +EV that I never make.

[/ QUOTE ]

Care to explain why?

[/ QUOTE ]

These ev calculations deal with one hand and don't factor in other considerations.

[SumZero]

I'm not a crazy all-in monkey but I think 1 and 2 are clear pushes. 3 is a clear fold. 4 is the closest but even I would push there more times than not.

[vinyard]

[ QUOTE ]

These ev calculations deal with one hand and don't factor in other considerations.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea hoe OP got to 500 chips with 50/100 blind nor do I care. I thik this a situation whre, barring read on the blinds I am pushing darn near every two. If another playe is not I question his skill/sanity.

FWIW, if you show down and win you just make an adjustment in your pushing standards.

[the_joker]

1) Push
2) Push
3) Fold
4) Push

[ChuckNorris]

ppfp

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

These ev calculations deal with one hand and don't factor in other considerations.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea hoe OP got to 500 chips with 50/100 blind nor do I care. I thik this a situation whre, barring read on the blinds I am pushing darn near every two. If another player is not I question his skill/sanity.

FWIW, if you show down and win you just make an adjustment in your pushing standards.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is just the dumbest statement. And I have no idea why you would say something like this. Are you such a MASTER that you are able to make this judgement?

If you wish to make an argument, then provide an argument, but this kind of "I'm better than you" type of statement is ludicrous.

[SuitedSixes]

After further review, hand #4 is a clear push. You have worse problems than showing K5o. SB and his stack size is irrelevant, he has to call any two (you are ahead of any two), and pot odds dictate that BB has to call as well and you have a Top 50% hand.

[vinyard]

[ QUOTE ]
This is just the dumbest statement. And I have no idea why you would say something like this. Are you such a MASTER that you are able to make this judgement?

If you wish to make an argument, then provide an argument, but this kind of "I'm better than you" type of statement is ludicrous.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is, honestly, a trivial push even if this is the first hand of 50/100 blinds and if you are getting called by any two (which you won't be regardless of whether SB should or not.)

With this many players at an 800 chip game how often are you going to get a better hand into an unraised pot? Pretty infrequently. And postion matters as we all know. Do the dissenters plan on pushing any two once you are at barely more than 3BB? Calling from the BB with junk getting 2:1? Is that anybody's plan? The way I look at it is that the math is on my side, not every tourney works out perfectly and if you are not pushing K6 here it is a burden on you to give a logical reason why you don't not the other way around. Are you concerned about table image? In the next 9 hands you are nearly guarantedd to have less than 3BBs barring a double up.

[zaphod]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

These ev calculations deal with one hand and don't factor in other considerations.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea hoe OP got to 500 chips with 50/100 blind nor do I care. I thik this a situation whre, barring read on the blinds I am pushing darn near every two. If another player is not I question his skill/sanity.

FWIW, if you show down and win you just make an adjustment in your pushing standards.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is just the dumbest statement. And I have no idea why you would say something like this. Are you such a MASTER that you are able to make this judgement?

If you wish to make an argument, then provide an argument, but this kind of "I'm better than you" type of statement is ludicrous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes i agree with you here Scuba Chuck.

For what it is worth, my answers are ppff. I think the last one is close. It all depends on the nature of the table. On some tournaments you get lots of chances to steal, on other people are already in there before you. And yes, your table image is going to get hurt by pushing this one.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

These ev calculations deal with one hand and don't factor in other considerations.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have no idea hoe OP got to 500 chips with 50/100 blind nor do I care. I thik this a situation whre, barring read on the blinds I am pushing darn near every two. If another player is not I question his skill/sanity.

FWIW, if you show down and win you just make an adjustment in your pushing standards.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is just the dumbest statement. And I have no idea why you would say something like this. Are you such a MASTER that you are able to make this judgement?

If you wish to make an argument, then provide an argument, but this kind of "I'm better than you" type of statement is ludicrous.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes i agree with you here Scuba Chuck.

For what it is worth, my answers are ppff. I think the last one is close. It all depends on the nature of the table. On some tournaments you get lots of chances to steal, on other people are already in there before you. And yes, your table image is going to get hurt by pushing this one.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I don't necessarily think that my way is THE RIGHT way, but it's my way. Furthermore, the more players there are at the table, the easier it is for me to let this one go. If there were fewer players, say 5, this is an auto push. Vinyard, you have it backwards, IMHO. Zaphod, I believe you have some merit in the fact that depending on how the table is playing, I might change my mind and gamble here.

Furthermore, I think the image discussion is irrelevant. Most players will mentally acknowledge that this has little bearing on future card play.

We all know that the average hand is ~T7. K5 is ahead of the average hand. Mathematically, then we're ahead of any two cards. My opinion is that there are better chances/coinflips to be taken in the future, and this is one I'm willing to let go.

My point to Vinyard is that he has implied that he has some authority to "question (another player's) skill/sanity." These types of statements are completely unnecessary.

Finally you're arguments are backwards. The more players around, the longer you can wait, especially since you've just "paid" your SB. The best hand you'll come across in the next 10 hands is AJ (statistically speaking). When you become chip starved you have to choose if blind stealing is the best alternative, or battling.

[vinyard]

A simple question: would you rather push AJo 5 or 6 handed UTG (the only time you can be assured an open pot) or push K5o here? If I had to choose, I would much prefer to push this K5o on the button.

And I don't presume to know when the blinds go up as OP didn't mention them but to suggest that you have ten hands to wait on AJ is, at best, disingenuous. I don't feel like looking it up but I suspect the best hand you will see in the next *5* hands isn't significantly better than K5 and you will be pushing through more opponents.

As for my authority to question anybody's play, I have no need to get into a pissing match. The play is clearly +EV against any two, you don't have a stack and by your own admission the image discussion is a non-starter. I would like to hear any of the people suggesting this is a fold to articulate *why* it is a fold. Nobody has come even close to justifying folding this hand.

And, it takes a real peach to impugn my character regarding my comment of skill/sanity and then assert that my clearly correct thinking is "backwards."