View Full Version : Strange Pokertracker data: JJ wins more than KK
NYCNative
07-02-2005, 08:54 AM
After nearly 30,000 tournament hands of poker (mostly all in SNGs) I started to dig into the numbers a little bit with supposed problem hands. I was astonished to find this:
WIN RATES (Times Held)
1) AA - 87.42% (159)
2) JJ - 83.67% (116)
3) KK - 81.34% (134)
4) QQ - 81.25% (144)
5) AQs - 75.26% ( 97)
6) AKo - 73.87% (287)
7) TT - 73.48% (132)
8) AKs - 70.00% ( 80)
9) 99 - 68.94% (132)
10) 88 - 65.81% (117)
Is this just a result of a relatively small sample size? What else should I be looking for in this data?
Do you play them differently?
The difference is only 2-3 hands, so the most likely explanation is variance, but I'd be interested to know about any differences in your playing of these hands anyway.
AlphaWice
07-02-2005, 09:14 AM
the fact that the percentages are really close? could be variance.
AA is dealt 1/220 i think. So 30000/220 means that we have 136 samples on average of KK and JJ. one can easily see that it doesnt take much variance to skew it a couple percent.
NYCNative
07-02-2005, 09:33 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Do you play them differently?
[/ QUOTE ]That's a very good question. My first thought was, "I hope so!"
But looking at my hand histories, I would say that I actually don't play them very differently pre-flop - well, more accurately, pre-flop in an unraised pot. I will always raise with either hand into an unraised pot no matter what my position is.
I play them differently if I get reraised or if I am playing them in a pot that was already raised. I am more likely to reraise Kings and less likely to fold them than Jacks if it gets too hairy.
I certainly will treat them differently post-flop, however the main difference there is that I have less overcards to deal with when I see Kings than Jacks. I will have to dig deeper to see how many times I got caught in the trap of having no overs but running into bigger PPs. As the percentages show, however, this is not a palpable concern usually. And yes, I'm sure that attitude has got me killed before...
dmmikkel
07-02-2005, 09:44 AM
JJ is easier to get away from
You're more likely to push JJ instead of just a raise (later stages)
But more likely variance. Small samplesize
NYCNative
07-02-2005, 10:02 AM
Times I ran into bigger PPs ---
KK against AA
-------------
Hand #6098715-59 - Lost $1,110
Hand #6755382-7 - Won $ 320 *
* I lost to AA but won a sidepot against AT to come out ahead.
(One time my KK was against another KK and QQ and I split the pot when QQ didn't improve.)
JJ against QQ/KK/AA
-------------------
Hand #6552832-30 - Lost $670 to AA
Hand #6548818-4 - Won $1,640 vs AA *
* Flopped a Jack
I'm surprised... I figure it should have been more times, at least with he Jacks...
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