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NYCNative
07-02-2005, 08:54 AM
After nearly 30,000 tournament hands of poker (mostly all in SNGs) I started to dig into the numbers a little bit with supposed problem hands. I was astonished to find this:

WIN RATES (Times Held)

1) AA - 87.42% (159)
2) JJ - 83.67% (116)
3) KK - 81.34% (134)
4) QQ - 81.25% (144)
5) AQs - 75.26% ( 97)
6) AKo - 73.87% (287)
7) TT - 73.48% (132)
8) AKs - 70.00% ( 80)
9) 99 - 68.94% (132)
10) 88 - 65.81% (117)

Is this just a result of a relatively small sample size? What else should I be looking for in this data?

KJ o
07-02-2005, 09:12 AM
Do you play them differently?

The difference is only 2-3 hands, so the most likely explanation is variance, but I'd be interested to know about any differences in your playing of these hands anyway.

AlphaWice
07-02-2005, 09:14 AM
the fact that the percentages are really close? could be variance.

AA is dealt 1/220 i think. So 30000/220 means that we have 136 samples on average of KK and JJ. one can easily see that it doesnt take much variance to skew it a couple percent.

NYCNative
07-02-2005, 09:33 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Do you play them differently?

[/ QUOTE ]That's a very good question. My first thought was, "I hope so!"

But looking at my hand histories, I would say that I actually don't play them very differently pre-flop - well, more accurately, pre-flop in an unraised pot. I will always raise with either hand into an unraised pot no matter what my position is.

I play them differently if I get reraised or if I am playing them in a pot that was already raised. I am more likely to reraise Kings and less likely to fold them than Jacks if it gets too hairy.

I certainly will treat them differently post-flop, however the main difference there is that I have less overcards to deal with when I see Kings than Jacks. I will have to dig deeper to see how many times I got caught in the trap of having no overs but running into bigger PPs. As the percentages show, however, this is not a palpable concern usually. And yes, I'm sure that attitude has got me killed before...

dmmikkel
07-02-2005, 09:44 AM
JJ is easier to get away from
You're more likely to push JJ instead of just a raise (later stages)

But more likely variance. Small samplesize

NYCNative
07-02-2005, 10:02 AM
Times I ran into bigger PPs ---

KK against AA
-------------
Hand #6098715-59 - Lost $1,110
Hand #6755382-7 - Won $ 320 *

* I lost to AA but won a sidepot against AT to come out ahead.

(One time my KK was against another KK and QQ and I split the pot when QQ didn't improve.)

JJ against QQ/KK/AA
-------------------
Hand #6552832-30 - Lost $670 to AA
Hand #6548818-4 - Won $1,640 vs AA *

* Flopped a Jack

I'm surprised... I figure it should have been more times, at least with he Jacks...