Commerce 9/18 hand -- AJ

[private joker]

My first real hand at this table, but I've been folding for an orbit or so. If anyone knows the 9/18, it's a pretty juicy game.

4 limpers to me in the SB with A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif. I complete, and the BB checks. 6 to the flop for 6sb.

Flop comes T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif. I check, and it checks to a fairly loose, marginally aggressive CO (last to act), who bets.

I raise.

Folded to the CO who 3-bets. I call.

Turn is Q/images/graemlins/club.gif. I check, he bets, I call.

River is K/images/graemlins/club.gif. I check...

[Evan]

I'd fold the turn.

[Hybrid_11]

I agree but now that you hit the nut straight im partial for a donk bet here. Unfortunately you do not have any reads but this guy seems to like his hand and was aggresive with it on the flop I would give him the chance to raise you on the river so you can put a 3 bet out there

Im assuming any hand he bets out at the river he probably raises with on a board like that

[private joker]

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I'd fold the turn.

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I think this is the most questionable street. I'm getting 7:1 but I don't know how clean my pair outs are (I could be reverse dominated by AT or JT, he could have 2 pair, etc.), and the K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif is possibly tainted (though I don't put him on a flush draw when he declines the free card, and because his draw wouldn't be the nut draw since I have the A of trump). But if he has something like T9, I have 10 clean outs. Since I'm putting him on something better than T9, I'm thinking it's between 4 and 7 outs, maybe 6-ish. That makes the call pretty thin indeed.

[Evan]

I don't think the fold is very close at all. Your reverse implied odds are pretty bad imo.

If you're interested, I'd also c/r the river.

[private joker]

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If you're interested, I'd also c/r the river.

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How about the flop?

[DBowling]

does this seem like a reasonable range for villian?
[ QUOTE ]
77, 55, AJs-ATs, KTs, QdJd, QTs, JTs, ATo, KTo, JTo, 5d6d

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If so, your A and J outs have 60% equity vs this range. Your K outs should be worth 95%+(if they are worth less, your other outs are worth more).
1.8 outs for A
1.8 outs for J
4 outs for K
7.6 total outs, I call.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]

If you're interested, I'd also c/r the river.

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I think I prefer a bet, hoping to get in a 3 bet.

The problem now is that if he has something like AT (pretty likely, IMO) he is liable to check behind. If he does this only 50% of the time, you are breaking even in comparison to a bet, and that's assuming that he only calls when you bet -- when he raises you it's just gravy.

And it's very unlikely that he'll fold for a single bet.

[QTip]

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If you're interested, I'd also c/r the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I prefer a bet, hoping to get in a 3 bet.

The problem now is that if he has something like AT (pretty likely, IMO) he is liable to check behind. If he does this only 50% of the time, you are breaking even in comparison to a bet, and that's assuming that he only calls when you bet -- when he raises you it's just gravy.

And it's very unlikely that he'll fold for a single bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I feel the same way. It's also possible that this is a busted flush draw now too. I don't think it would be unreasonable to see it played that way.

Also, I do think the turn is the most interesting street. I really don't think we have enough for a call there.

[jjacky]

i wonder why everybody likes the flop. especially after the AK HU thread from QTip yesterday.

the raise on the flop offers only 3.5:1 odds and the AJ is not much of a hand to say the least.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
i wonder why everybody likes the flop. especially after the AK HU thread from QTip yesterday.

the raise on the flop offers only 3.5:1 odds and the AJ is not much of a hand to say the least.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an interesting point, though I'm not sure your reasoning is correct. The reason not to raise isn't that AJ isn't much of a hand.

You have to answer the question: What does your raise accomplish?

The benefits are, pretty specifically, that you could push someone off AJ-AK. You are not pushing anyone of JT or AT, and it's unlikely anyone connected with the 7 or 5. A J8 gutshot is also possible, and folding that is another side benefit. So reads would help... Are these the type of players who could limp with AJ-AK? If so, the raise is sound. If not, I don't like. From my experience at the commerce 9/18, I think those kind of limps are pretty common, so I like the raise.

[private joker]

Here was my thinking on the flop:

I'm not going to bet out because that accomplishes little. I'm going to check and see what happens. It checked around to the CO (effectively the button), who bet. Now -- the pot has 7sb in it, and I'm not ready to give up what might be the best hand. I have an ace with a good kicker.

If someone does have a pair, charging them with 2 cold might force them to fold, which is good. Getting it heads up is pretty good. I do have 2 overcards and 2 backdoor draws, which totals about 8 outs. I'd like to continue in the hand I think. So I raise to get it heads up. This way my pair outs could likely be good, and if he's on a diamond draw, even A-high could take it.

[gaming_mouse]

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This way my pair outs could likely be good, and if he's on a diamond draw, even A-high could take it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I knew what were you thinking and, like I said, I agree with the raise.

My only point was that when you think about about cleaning up outs, it's good to know what, specifically, you are hoping to cleanup. In this case, it's mainly AJ-AK, and since it's somewhat unlikely that those hands both a) didn't raise PF and b) didn't bet on the flop, the raise is not as valuable as it might seem. However, given the passivity you often see at those tables (plus the small chance of folding a gutshot), I still prefer raising to calling. But calling is not as bad as it might seem.

[jjacky]

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i wonder why everybody likes the flop. especially after the AK HU thread from QTip yesterday.

the raise on the flop offers only 3.5:1 odds and the AJ is not much of a hand to say the least.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an interesting point, though I'm not sure your reasoning is correct. The reason not to raise isn't that AJ isn't much of a hand.

You have to answer the question: What does your raise accomplish?

The benefits are, pretty specifically, that you could push someone off AJ-AK. You are not pushing anyone of JT or AT, and it's unlikely anyone connected with the 7 or 5. A J8 gutshot is also possible, and folding that is another side benefit. So reads would help... Are these the type of players who could limp with AJ-AK? If so, the raise is sound. If not, I don't like. From my experience at the commerce 9/18, I think those kind of limps are pretty common, so I like the raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

my post was not an attempt to reason against the checkraise, it was just ment as an expression of my surprise that nobody brought that point up (especially i expected QTip to do so).

i don't like the checkraise, but that's an other point.

[Justin A]

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I don't think the fold is very close at all. Your reverse implied odds are pretty bad imo.

If you're interested, I'd also c/r the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Reverse implied odds are not bad. If anything you've got some implied odds. You're likely to get two bets with the three outs that give you the nuts, and you'll be good most of the time with the K that completes the flush. When you hit an ace or jack you'll lose one bet at the most.

[jjacky]

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Here was my thinking on the flop:

I'm not going to bet out because that accomplishes little. I'm going to check and see what happens. It checked around to the CO (effectively the button), who bet. Now -- the pot has 7sb in it, and I'm not ready to give up what might be the best hand. I have an ace with a good kicker.

If someone does have a pair, charging them with 2 cold might force them to fold, which is good. Getting it heads up is pretty good. I do have 2 overcards and 2 backdoor draws, which totals about 8 outs. I'd like to continue in the hand I think. So I raise to get it heads up. This way my pair outs could likely be good, and if he's on a diamond draw, even A-high could take it.

[/ QUOTE ]

what do you think your chances are to
a) have the best hand
b) to pick up the pot with the checkraise
c) to get EVERY better hand to fold?

why do you consider your hand to have about 8 outs? don't you discount your overpair outs (i see 2.5 backdoor outs at best)?

[jason_t]

Fold the turn but bet/3-bet the river.

[private joker]

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Fold the turn but bet/3-bet the river.

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He's rarely raising the river when I come alive with a donkbet on the river. It's doubtful he can beat a hand like KT (that I'm representing) unless he flopped a set, and it's more likely he has a hand that he'll bet and call a raise with than one he'll raise.

I think the check-raise is the right move here. Yes, he'll call a bet (unless he was on a diamond draw), but he'll call a check-raise just as often.

[private joker]

Also, online players should remember/recognize how passive live players are on the river.

[Hybrid_11]

You just answered your own question there. Live players are passive i think more then 50% of the time it gets checked thru and you kick yourself for missing a bet.

[jason_t]

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Fold the turn but bet/3-bet the river.

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He's rarely raising the river when I come alive with a donkbet on the river. It's doubtful he can beat a hand like KT (that I'm representing) unless he flopped a set, and it's more likely he has a hand that he'll bet and call a raise with than one he'll raise.

I think the check-raise is the right move here. Yes, he'll call a bet (unless he was on a diamond draw), but he'll call a check-raise just as often.

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The reason for bet/3-betting is to keep him from taking a free showdown which so many live players at the Commerce are prone to do. I haven't played the 9/18, but I have played the 6/12 and watched the 9/18 and I see people missing value bets in these games all the time.

[private joker]

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You just answered your own question there. Live players are passive i think more then 50% of the time it gets checked thru and you kick yourself for missing a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying they don't value bet. I'm saying they don't raise without the nuts or close to it. He obviously likes his hand after 3-betting the flop and declining the free card on the turn. But does he like it enough to raise? I didn't think so. I think he liked it enough to get in one more value bet.

[Hybrid_11]

It comes down to your reads, your the one at the table. I just do not see on this scary board betting with something he would not raise. I truly believe more then 50% that he checks thru. Im assuming you dissagree because the c/r worked but im just giving my opinoin like i said u were the one there if you believed the c/r works more 50% of the time or more then u made the right decision

[shant]

I agree that a lot of 9/18 Commerce players miss value bets, but he likes his hand enough that I think he will bet, but not raise a donkbet, so I like the checkraise.