ITM shortstack call question

[45suited]

This hand is taken from another post that I made, but I think that it is geniunely interesting. The consensus was that my call was bad here, but I really think it's closer than people are making it out to be:


Seat 4: shbball7 (3520)
Seat 7: HERO (1720)
Seat 8: whtsoxstink (2760)
shbball7 posts small blind (200)
HERO posts big blind (400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ 6s, 4s ]
whtsoxstink raises (2760) to 2760
whtsoxstink is all-In.
shbball7 folds
HERO calls (1320)

Now, I'm not the anywhere near the math person that many of the top posters on this forum are, but here was my thinking with calling:

1) If I fold, I have only 1320 chips and I will have ZERO FE the next hand with the blinds at 200-400.

2) There is no guarantee that I can play the next hand heads-up. If button raises next hand and I have to fold, I am down to 1120.

3) Against any non-pair big card hand, my 64s is ~40%

4) Since I have zero FE, If I am lucky enough to be able to OP the next hand, I have a 50% chance of doubling up the next hand. IF I can open push.

5) However, my < 50% chance of doubling up the next hand (since there's no guarantee that I can play heads up) would result in me having only 2640 chips (If I double up by open pushing into the BB), whereas the ~40% chance of winning this hand would result in me having 3640 chips - exactly 1000 more chips.

Based on all these factors (with #2 being the most important IMO), I actually think that calling is the correct play here. Comments? I am sincerely interested to find out where my amateur analysis is flawed on this hand. Thanks.

I should add that once ITM, I'm not averse to making calls like this (if I think the bigger stack is just trying to blind me down) in order to avoid becoming crippled. Is this a leak or are plays like this necessary to go for first?

[chisness]

1320 is zero FE at 200/400?

[45suited]

If I open pushed from the SB on the next hand into BB, he'd be getting almost 2:1 to call me. Zero FE is a bit of an overstatement, but not by much in my opinion.

[jcm4ccc]

You also have zero equity when you CALL this hand for all your chips.

Sometimes it's not about folding equity. Sometimes it's about winning the hand. 1320 chips will double up nicely to 2600 chips if you win the next hand. And almost any hand you get dealt will be better than 64s.

It really is a bad call.

[Chaostracize]

Yes.

[45suited]

Thanks for your response. So far that's both you and Adanthar that hate my call. I respect the opinions of both you guys alot, so I obviously stand corrected.

I guess my general point is that I think that alot of players, especially on the 11s and 22s, are too hesitant to make calls when shortstacked. How low would you have to be to make this call?

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
If I open pushed from the SB on the next hand into BB, he'd be getting almost 2:1 to call me. Zero FE is a bit of an overstatement, but not by much in my opinion.

[/ QUOTE ]

Luckily we have a backstory to prove this wrong...

Your opponents were livid as to a call you made (the JT hand I believe) where you really had the odds to call even though you were most likely behind. This leads me to believe they are too tight even ITM and will fold a decent percentage of the time if you get the chance to push from the SB. Also. I'd rather push from the SB with a random hand then call from the BB with crap.

[AliasMrJones]

Heads up 64s is a one of the worst starting hands. I do think your stack has FE at 200-400. I think there are several factors weighing this toward a fold:

1. Button didn't have to get involved with this hand, but he did.

2. I think you do have some FE against most opponents here. We can argue about how much FE you have, but no matter what you have more FE going all-in next hand than you do calling all-in this hand with a crappy heads up hand.

3. The hand you will be dealt next hand will almost certainly be better than the hand you hold now. There is 0 chance you are ahead here. There is a 50% chance you'll be ahead next hand.

I'd fold.

[Chaostracize]

Once you are getting ~2-1 on your call it becomes correct.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Luckily we have a backstory to prove this wrong...

Your opponents were livid as to a call you made (the JT hand I believe) where you really had the odds to call even though you were most likely behind. This leads me to believe they are too tight even ITM and will fold a decent percentage of the time if you get the chance to push from the SB. Also. I'd rather push from the SB with a random hand then call from the BB with crap.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kyro, that's a very interesting point. I actually processed that same information and it led me to believe that because of their anger, the chances of a spite call would increase, thus diminishing my FE.

Thank you for all your responses though. I am here to learn and you guys are great at explaining your thought process. I do realize now that the call was bad, but at the table it seemed to be a close decision.

One more question though: Doesn't the 50/30/20 payout structure play any part in the decision process here or is it irrelevant?

[microbet]

If you assume he pushes with ANY TWO.

Call hands: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J3o+,J2s+,T6o+,T2s+,97o+,95s+,87o, 85s+,76s (67%)
__________________________________________________


If this is his push range: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q2s+,Q6o+,J7s+,J9o+,T8s+,98s


Call hands: 22+,A2+,K8o+,K5s+,QTo+,Q9s+,JTs (30%)

__________________________________________________ _

If this is his push range: 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+,KJo+,QJs

Call hands: 33+,A8o+,A7s+,KQs (13%)


__________________________________________________ _______

Basically, you need a solid hand to call here.

The only way I can put him on any two is if he is crazy, or if he's really good and thinks you are good, but that you don't know that he's good.

[45suited]

Wow, I see it's time for me to pull my head out and buy Eastbay's program. I plan on doing it, but I'm such a procrastinator. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
One more question though: Doesn't the 50/30/20 payout structure play any part in the decision process here or is it irrelevant?

[/ QUOTE ]

It does. It makes a call worse than winner take all.

[kamrann]

Yes, but these SGA results ignore considerations of your FE given your stack in the following hands, which is the main idea behind your reasoning in making this call.
My guess is that the call was bad, but only marginally. I say this because I think you do still have some FE on the following two hands. If you didn't, the call would be fine in my opinion.

[Uppercut]

whtsoxstink

No they don't. (53-24 and a 10 1/2 game lead over the Twins).

[kamrann]

I am guessing he meant this the other way around - since 1st place is slightly disproportionately more (nicely worded!) than 2nd and 3rd, is this a reason to make the call now while you have more chips to double up.

I think this is a valid point. Since you're all guaranteed 3rd, the relevant payout structure is actually 3:1:0. So clearly playing for first at this stage is very much the right way to go. Still, I'm not saying the call was good. But I think it's close.