TT - bubblicious

[LuvDemNutz]

Full Tilt $30+3 buy-in tourney ~360 entrants

Top 36 get paid, 44 are left when this hand comes up

Blinds are 250/500 with a 50 ante

Hero (~T6600) is UTG with TT and raises to T1250

UTG+1 pushes all in for ~T9300

Folds around to Hero - call or fold and why?

I don't rememeber the exact payout structure but 28-36 got ~$45, 1st got ~$2500

[xLukex]

[ QUOTE ]
Full Tilt $30+3 buy-in tourney ~360 entrants

Top 36 get paid, 44 are left when this hand comes up

Blinds are 250/500 with a 50 ante

Hero (~T6600) is UTG with TT and raises to T1250

UTG+1 pushes all in for ~T9300

Folds around to Hero - call or fold and why?

I don't rememeber the exact payout structure but 28-36 got ~$45, 1st got ~$2500

[/ QUOTE ]

This is rough. You'll only have 10BB left if you fold, but UTG is certainly representing QQ-AA, AKs.

I would grit my teeth and fold.

[MeanGreenTT]

You put in almost 1/4 of your stack and the upcoming Blinds will whack another ~1k off the remaining, leaving you with about 8BBs if you fold here...I'm a little torn here but this may be you're best chance to make a run for the real money, otherwise you're looking to push with any decent upcoming hand, hoping to double up inside this round.

[xLukex]

[ QUOTE ]
You put in almost 1/4 of your stack and the upcoming Blinds will whack another ~1k off the remaining, leaving you with about 8BBs if you fold here...I'm a little torn here but this may be you're best chance to make a run for the real money, otherwise you're looking to push with any decent upcoming hand, hoping to double up inside this round.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bah I forgot he was UTG.

I grit my teeth and call. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[TxDozerMan]

The only hand that I am really afraid of here is JJ, because I think he tries to milk QQ-AA here with a smaller raise. JJ,99,AK,AQs seem much more likely with the push, IMHO. I call and go for the real money.

[kuro]

Save yourself the headache and just push preflop next time. Call.

[nightlyraver]

2 thoughts:

1) Why didn't you raise more? Most people raise 3xBB at this level. The weak-ish raise may be taken as a sign of weakness and cause someone to mess with you.

2) With this size stack, folding is not an option once you decide to raise. If you were planning on folding to a reraise, you should have limped or folded to begin with. I'm calling here much often than not since folding leaves you crippled. If you had 25xBB or more and villian had a big stack as well, then folding becomes more attractive.

The only time I'm folding in this spot is when villian is is a predictable player who will almost always smooth-call w/ a big ace and only push TT-QQ and maybe KK and AA. Those players appear, but not too often. Pay attention - without this read though, you must assume that he very well has AK or AQ, or something like 77-QQ.

[LuvDemNutz]

[ QUOTE ]
Save yourself the headache and just push preflop next time. Call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think open-pushing is bad -

the table was playing pretty tight - usually the first one to raise was scooping the pot.

I think an UTG open-raise is strong enough.

Besides, if there's a reraise and a re-reraise behind me I can muck and feel good about it.

[LuvDemNutz]

[ QUOTE ]
2 thoughts:

1) Why didn't you raise more? Most people raise 3xBB at this level. The weak-ish raise may be taken as a sign of weakness and cause someone to mess with you.


[/ QUOTE ]

The table was playing very tight - people were opening for $1250 and taking the pot uncontested.

I suppose I could've bumped it to $1500 but I don't think it makes that much of a difference.

Also, the blinds may have just gone up (from 200/400 to 250/500 - I don't remember exactly).

You are right though - I would normally come in for at least 3XBB if I am going to come in at all - perhaps a small mistake on my part.

[HeroInBlack]

Yucky, but I call. He probably would have gone to 3600 or something like that with AA or KK trying to get you to call. The all in suggests he really doesn't want a call but wouldn't feel too bad about it if he got one. I think you're on a coin-flip here 90% of the time, and facing an overpair the other 10%, and the pot is paying you pretty well.

[LuvDemNutz]

Well most of the responses echoed my thought process pretty well.


My thoughts:

1) I did not fear QQ-AA as I would generally expect those hands to reraise trying to get more out of me rather than pushing. JJ was a minor concern but I don't know if JJ pushes here given my image (tight). The only hand that really made sense to do this was AK.

2) Given that I read my opponent for AK I am a 57:43 favorite. Not great, but not terrible. I am getting 7700:5350 to get the rest of my money in as a favorite.

3)I'm paying the blinds the next two hands and should I go card dead for the next 12 hands I am down close to 3000 chips and in serious trouble.

4)I play to win, not come in 36th and net a $12 profit.

I called.

My opponent showed AK - unfortunately he turned an A and that was all she wrote.

[allenciox]

By the way, I believe QQ-KK would play this exactly as specified, a smaller raise invites other people into the pot, I would rather take down the pot now or fight it out with one person. AA may or may not play it that way. The real key is how much of a rock your opponent is and how much of a rock you appear to be. If your opponent is a rock, I would expect JJ-AA, or AK. Even if he plays AA only 1/2 the time this way, then AK only occurs 43% of the time in this group. Even if you assumed it was half a chance to be AK, half a chance overpair, then your odds of winning are only .38 --- the pot is laying you odds of 1.44:1, less than the 1.63:1 you would need. It's a very close call, but I would lay it down.

If he is not real tight, then you would want to expand the list of cards he would play here. Then the call would be correct.

[Greeksquared]

I don't see why you aren't afraid of aces. You should be very afraid of AA-JJ. It just happened he had AK. I would push all 5 hands here. A raise to 3-4K by him does not really accomplish anything except define his hand a bit more. Against normal opponents this call will be -EV.

[kuro]

You're 9 handed right? So there's 2450 in the pot after your opening raise (remember there are antes) so bb is getting 3.27:1 preflop to call. You need to raise enough so that villain's not getting such good odds to call especially if he's deep stacked. But if you raise much more you're pot committed anyway, so you might as well just push preflop. 2 all ins over an under the gun raise at the bubble is pretty uncommon and I don't think you need to change how you play for fear of that.

[LuvDemNutz]

[ QUOTE ]
He probably would have gone to 3600 or something like that with AA or KK trying to get you to call. The all in suggests he really doesn't want a call but wouldn't feel too bad about it if he got one. I think you're on a coin-flip here 90% of the time, and facing an overpair the other 10%, and the pot is paying you pretty well.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this 100%.

As far as this call being -EV, the EV of this call/fold is a very difficult thing to determine. It isn't as simple as saying that in the long run folding results in me in having more chips on average. You have to consider the specific situational factors of the tournament (blind sizes, antes, avg stacks, players left, payout structure, etc) in order to say that this call is or isn't +EV.

[LuvDemNutz]

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, I believe QQ-KK would play this exactly as specified, a smaller raise invites other people into the pot

[/ QUOTE ]

You cannot make this assumption without knowing the stack sizes of the other players and/or how the table was playing up to that point (sheepishly tight).

A reraise (say to 2500 or 3000) would've committed just about anyone at the table if they wanted to play the hand. (stack sizes ranged from 1500 - 12000 with most in the 2000-5000 range) If I am holding QQ-AA I am ok with that.

[allenciox]

The point is... you are ok with that. He may not be. I am just saying some people are going to reraise all-in with KK,QQ,JJ here --- I certainly would. So you have to figure, what is the percentage of time that somebody else would play AA-JJ here by raising all-in... I submit to you that it is much greater than zero, which is what you assumed when you said you put him solely on AK. If you believe that only a third of the time he would play a big pair that way, then the odds for a call of his allin reraise are compelling.

[LuvDemNutz]

True - it is close, which is why I posted the hand. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

So the fact that I'm left with 5350 and am about to post 850 in blinds and antes over the next 2 hands doesn't factor into your decision at all?