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View Full Version : this is either a really easy fold or a really easy raise

sthief09
07-01-2005, 04:39 AM
MP1 is a LAG, MP2 is 17/5.5/2.1 (1/3.8/2.3)

I haven't played full table online in months, so I'm used to thinking everyone's full of it all the time, but maybe I'm overcompensating. I felt like this should be an easy fold but now I'm doubting myself. (it didn't go to SD so I'm not being results oriented)

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero folds
Justin A
07-01-2005, 04:56 AM
probably a good fold.
Jeff W
07-01-2005, 05:18 AM
How many hands is the MP2 read over? Those AF stats are strange. I don't know what to make of his play based on those.

I would raise the flop/bet turn even against this opponent. If I get played with, I fold the turn. I don't think it's an easy decision either way and that low pfr is worrisome--it is more indicative of a strong hand than his AFs.
sthief09
07-01-2005, 05:24 AM
[ QUOTE ]
How many hands is the MP2 read over? Those AF stats are strange. I don't know what to make of his play based on those.

I would raise the flop/bet turn even against this opponent. If I get played with, I fold the turn. I don't think it's an easy decision either way and that low pfr is worrisome--it is more indicative of a strong hand than his AFs.

[/ QUOTE ]


200, I agree that they don't make sense so should basically be tossed
Jules22
07-01-2005, 05:27 AM
calling definitely sucks, and unless you think mp2 can bet something like 45 its a good fold
Jeff W
07-01-2005, 05:35 AM
[ QUOTE ]
calling definitely sucks, and unless you think mp2 can bet something like 45 its a good fold

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's more likely that he is betting a middle pair. That is the most likely cold calling hand and the most likely hand to bet into us on this board.
flawless_victory
07-01-2005, 09:17 AM
i used to always raise it here against an unknown on party, but i think i thats wrong...pl just effing looove to coldcall with KQ. coldcall=KQ. id bet even money that this guy had KQo... i bet if it was suited he would go for the CR. believe me. i like the fold...
stigmata
07-01-2005, 09:29 AM
[ QUOTE ]
.pl just effing looove to coldcall with KQ

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is that people also love to cold call medium pocket pairs (often correctly...). I think the flop donkbet suggests 99-77 more than it does TPGK, where a check-raise is more natural. Given the size of the pot, I would raise the flop and go from there.
PokerBob
07-01-2005, 09:39 AM
[ QUOTE ]
MP1 is a LAG, MP2 is 17/5.5/2.1 (1/3.8/2.3)

I haven't played full table online in months, so I'm used to thinking everyone's full of it all the time, but maybe I'm overcompensating. I felt like this should be an easy fold but now I'm doubting myself. (it didn't go to SD so I'm not being results oriented)

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, Hero folds

[/ QUOTE ]

Any idea what MP2 thinks of you? The fact that he just CC'ed the LAG instead if 3-betting is odd IMO. Yuck. This is one of those spots where I raise the flop, bet the turn and check behind on the river, get shown KQs or KJs, and wonder what the hell I was thinking. I think I fold here, but I'm not happy about it.
PokerBob
07-01-2005, 09:43 AM
[ QUOTE ]
That is the most likely cold calling hand and the most likely hand to bet into us on this board.

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I'm not so sure. MP2 has numbers of a somewhat decent player. Wouldn't a somehwat decent player 3-bet with a pp here to get MR. LAG HU?
Jeff W
07-01-2005, 09:50 AM
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not so sure. MP2 has numbers of a somewhat decent player. Wouldn't a somehwat decent player 3-bet with a pp here to get MR. LAG HU?

[/ QUOTE ]

His pfr=5.5