Raise Increasing Expectation On The Button With Speculative Hand?

[DawnToDusk]

I was playing at the local B&M $3/$6 game last night. The table I was seated at was loose almost all around. There was 2 people who a lil better preflop standards, but their play postflop was poor. This hand came up and I made a mental note to myself to ask you guys if I should of raised on the button with this speculative hand to increase my expectation. I figure it is one of the stronger speculative hands and would of been worth the raise. What are your guys thoughts for raising in this situation?

Preflop:
Button has T9s

UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, CO folds, Button raises, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

The flop missed me completely and I didn't see much of any chance to win this pot so I backed off on the flop. But I think that this was a correct move. I figure to win more that lose with this hand especially when I raise to increase my expectation.

How do you guys play these hands in late position?

[jba]

against really bad 3/6 players I'm pretty sure this is a good move. I have capped an 8way pot with JTs on the button in this exact scenario. Not sure if that's good but it sure is fun. I think it also does wonders for the table image when you fold on the flop for one bet /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I like it even more at those ultimately passive, always check to the raiser tables.

[DawnToDusk]

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I think it also does wonders for the table image when you fold on the flop for one bet /images/graemlins/smile.gif

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How so? There was someone at my table last night that did this. Well he made it 3bets once and then folded on the flop when the board came with A62 or something along those lines.

[QTip]

I don't like it. You got in cheap with a drawing hand and already have the button...just get in the hand.

[Moneyline]

I don't think raising is a bad play, but I think calling is slightly better. If your cards were a little bigger I think you could raise for value against a huge field like this (QJs definitely raise, JTs probably raise that too). With bigger suited connectors you are more likely to make top pair, and when you hit your draw (particularly straight draws), another player will frequently be ready to jam up the pot with tptk or a big 2 pair. Still, I think raising with T9s is close, so I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.

Generally, with no-paint suited connectors I think you should raise a lot of limpers only if those limpers become fairly tight on the flop. In this case, raising inflates the pot and causes your opponents to draw almost dead to 2nd best hands when you flop a strong hand or draw. If you had limped and the pot was smaller, these same players would be less inclined to stick around. That doesn't seem like the case here, so a raise would be strictly for value. And as I said before, I think you need bigger cards to value raise.

[poker-penguin]

I'd say it's almost 6-5 pickem whether raising or calling was better.

A lot of overcards mean that you're not getting much of a shot at TP with t9s, but really, you're playing this as a lottery ticket.

If the table is passive post-flop, then this could be a useful raise - might give you the cheap card bet if it's checked to the raiser and you want to try and suckout cheaply.

[QTip]

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If the table is passive post-flop, then this could be a useful raise - might give you the cheap card bet if it's checked to the raiser and you want to try and suckout cheaply.

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The jameser and I had a conversation about this about a week ago. It's not any cheaper since it's the same size bet for PF and flop. However, there is value in having the luxury to get a free turn card. However, I think that's best saved for times when you could really use it, like having pocket 8s there or something like that. This hand, if it catches a draw, you can afford a peel on the flop most any time in the field anyway.

[Harv72b]

I'd like this raise better if you were on the CO or hijack & could buy the button by raising. As is, I think the point has already been made--they're giving you a cheap flop, the pot odds will be there no matter what if you flop a draw, and at your typical SS B&M table it really isn't going to make much of a difference if you camoflage your hand preflop.

Now, if the table was loose/weak, you could make a stronger case for raising.

[crunchy1]

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The jameser and I had a conversation about this about a week ago. It's not any cheaper since it's the same size bet for PF and flop.

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If it's the same one I'm thinking of - it was a good conversation. One thing I don't think was expressed enough is that most people wait until the big streets to get tricky (i.e. donking/checkraising). So, many times you can raise PF, bet the flop and it's actually that flop bet that buys you a card on the turn where you can check-behind. This also has a valuable side-effect of inducing a river bet from an EP player who missed his turn check/raise - putting him in the lead and (hopefully) callers in between when you make your hand.

[thejameser]

89s is a great limping hand for multiway pots. why ruin it by overinvesting on the button. i am sure you read in HEPFAP or SSHE or wherever that when there are alot of limpers in raising to increase overall expectation can be a good play. AK out of the blind with alot of limpers, AK on the button with alot of limpers, not 89s as it usually does not hit the flop, and even if you play it perfectly postflop it has zero showdown value if your BD draws, etc. don't come in. save the sb for when the flop definitely hits you.

[crunchy1]

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89s is a great limping hand for multiway pots. why ruin it by overinvesting on the button. i am sure you read in HEPFAP or SSHE or wherever that when there are alot of limpers in raising to increase overall expectation can be a good play. AK out of the blind with alot of limpers, AK on the button with alot of limpers, not 89s as it usually does not hit the flop, and even if you play it perfectly postflop it has zero showdown value if your BD draws, etc. don't come in. save the sb for when the flop definitely hits you.

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I'm not sure what this reply is directed at but, I agree. In a multiway pot when I'm on the button with 89s I'm limping along too.

[thejameser]

i have reread TOP, HEPFAP, SSHE, and Poker Essays II and III all in such a short period of time i forget which book it is in, but OP reminded me of an example hand in one of the aforementioned texts that occasionally you will raise in a multiway pot with alot of limpers to increase overall expectation, but their example used AKs out of the BB. this is nothing new as i will raise AKs out of just about anywhere, but the phrasing of the post reminded me of the text example. i'm at work and do not have access to any of them here to be more specific. sorry.

[DawnToDusk]

The table is loose and weak. That is my main reason for raising. I expect I can outplay anyone at the table and I know they will invest.

Im just trying to figure out if the raise is a smart play to increase my expectation with T9s. I thought it would be, especially the times I did flop a really strong draw and it came in, but it seems a lot of people want to limp with this hand on the button and I don't exactly know why.

Can someone go into some more detail why they would prefer limping with this hand?

[crunchy1]

One good reason is that raising reduces your implied odds. Instead of putting 1SB in to win whatever you expect by showdown - you're putting in 2SB.

[crunchy1]

Another good reason (although it's fairly speculative) is that when you flop a good hand/draw and someone in EP also flops a good hand it's many times going to kill your action. This flop action will get checked to you (because you raised PF), you'll bet your draw, and EP TP holder will checkraise you - killing the field, your implied odds and your expectation at showdown.

You might retort with the situation where EP leads the flop and you get value out of trapping the callers. I think there will be more times where an EP lead into a LP PFR will also help to kill the action and drive players who fear being trapped out of the pot.

I'm not sure that these are good reasons or not - they're definitely speculative. They're also arguments that could probably be countered by the exact opposite argument. It would come down to which situation occurs more frequently and I don't have any way to produce factual numbers to support my argument.

Just some random thoughts.... FWTW /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[DawnToDusk]

No Im definately glad your posting these thoughts as it is something I need to consider and look at in the big picture. But to your last post Im having a little trouble understanding implied odds when it is preflop.

I thought we used implied odds after seeing if someone has made a hand that is better than ours. Now in this case it would be pretty easy to have a better hand than T9s after the flop unless the flop really hit us.

In which case someone had a better hand than us I believe implied odds is use in replacement of pot odds. The implied odds are used as the pot odds adjusted for the future betting we can expect from the person(s) who have made hands and our hand will come in and be the BETTER hand.

I never knew we used implied odds before we saw any cards. Am I wrong here and stand corrected? Also I don't know how much I would also be using implied odds in this hand. If I flopped a really strong draw I would probably raise anything that was bet to me. I wouldn't be calling in this situation.



And as far as people wondering if they are getting trapped and will get out of the way if someone from early position leads into me with like TP, I'm not to worried at the $3/$6 table. I assume a lot of the people there aren't skilled or knowledgeable enough to know that a trap could be coming up and a lot of them will just go to the river either way, even if some people drop their hands.

But anyways... Implied odds preflop? Help please?

<3s

[QTip]

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But anyways... Implied odds preflop? Help please?

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There's a couple paragraphs on this in SSHE in the PF section.

[ckessel]

HEFAP talks about occassionally raising preflop in just this position. In that case, what HEFAP is talking about is locking people to the pot in case you hit. You want the pot so tempting they chase drawing essentially dead. HEFAP says though that there isn't any point in this if the people call too much anyway.

So, I'd lean towards just calling. However, I also think there's a pretty good chance you'll win more than 1/7th of the time against random hands (which with 7 to the flop is about accurage), so raising is probably fine too.

Not to be wishy-washy about it, I just think it probably doesn't matter much in this case.