I like this hand. Do you???

[CardSharpCook]

WSOP 2k. I have 82o in the BB. Limped was punished two hands ago when he limped with AQo and the BB flopped something. Though I have only been at the table for 2 orbits, the table chat, and actions that I have seen tell me that the villian is a notorious limper - loose, passive preflop, tight/aggressive post-flop. He has about 9K, I have 6K.

PF: Villian in MP3 limps (400), SB complets, I check.

(T1650) Flop: A /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Check, check, villian bets 1200, SB folds, I push for 5500.

[sekrah]

/images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
loose, passive preflop, tight/aggressive post-flop

[/ QUOTE ]

i've never played against a player like that. how confident are you in your read? i'd like the play a lot better if villain was LAG pre-flop instead of loose-passive. he could've limped in with something like TT/AK/etc and have you in a bad spot. if you must play for this pot, i'd bet instead of c/r, but i would have no interest in losing more than my BB here.

[mlagoo]

I guess I just don't see the need for it.

I mean, I can see why you would make the play . . . maybe if you think about it in terms of a range of hands you put him on, and the percentage chance that he would fold hands in that range.

Ultimately I think the risk to my stack is too great here. Especially if he's been limping with premium hands as well. I don't like it.

It may be nice for meta-game... once you showdown your 82o, you're a lock to get paid off down the road a bit.


I'm gonna fence straddle here, while falling towards the fold side of things.

[Firefly]

I can't remember who said it- Probally Dolye Bruson
He said something like "If you are bluffing, always have some outs"
Onto the hand-- i don't like it that much- i'd have to be 80-90% sure he could lay down a hand like Kx or KT or even Ax. Clearly your are folding 22-99, but i think i can find a better place for my money
balsy play- brilliant when it works- horrible when it fails

[locutus2002]

bold move.

you're risking T5500 to win T2850 so you are winning if villain lays down more than 2/3 of the time. If he's limping complete garbage this is good, if he's limping mostly premium hands I think its bad.

[autobet]

Have a gut shot to make this play. This is similar to the play Amir made against Sammy in the WSOP a few years ago.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't remember who said it- Probally Dolye Bruson
He said something like "If you are bluffing, always have some outs"

[/ QUOTE ]

I kind of agree with this aspect as well. Of course I have virtually no guts to pull a move like this, for fear that I'd have to turn my hand over.

I could imagine doing it maybe against some of my friends who I have played against a lot, that I have specific reads on. I just know I'm not good enough to get that read in a few orbits.

Did you think that your read was strong enough? I know that's one of the skills you utilize a lot.

[SossMan]

there are quite a few open limping hands that this flop hits. Axs, AT, QT, KJ, etc... however, there are also a ton of hands that he mucks here. Clearly it's a matter of how often he will muck them. My gut says that this play is likely +EV. Your stack cripples his, so he probably has to have a decently big hand here to call. Like TP or better.

[Scooterdoo]

Hey, B. While I usually like this type of aggressive play, I don't like it that much in this situation. If we went through a Harrington type Q/A before making a move I think it would look something like this:

1) has the Villian shown the willingness to limp with good starting hands like AK-A9? YES

2) has the Villian demonstrated the ability to give up on hands when he/she has caught a good part of the flop? NO (just don't have a read on this yet, given your limited play with him)

3) is there a decent to strong chance that the flop hit Villian? YES (even if it's not with a good A, certainly a typical limping hand is QT. Also, given the flop texture, even if he has middle or 3rd pair with a straight draw a gambling villian could call your bet thinking he has 11 outs).

4) if you don't have the best hand now, do you have outs to a better or best hand? NO

B, I don't see anything good about this situation. I would fold.

BTW, while his bet means nothing and there is certainly a very good possibility that he will fold, I think that there are just better times to push/bluff with much more likihood of success. Another thing to consider here is that if he did have an A he would would almost never check since he doesn't want either of you to get a free card if you are holding a K or J.

[ClaytonN]

http://www.suttonimpactstudio.com/portfull/HA-Reefer%20Madness.jpg

Actually I have no clue, as my balls are clearly not as big as yours.

[CardSharpCook]

Well, I like this play based on the math of it. I think that a bluff of this type (chk/rz on the flop) *IN THIS EVENT* this close to the money (170 left, 100 get paid) is folding every hand below TP, AND I think he flods TP, 8 or lower kicker 50-60% of the time. I also believe that he HAS learned his lesson about limping big aces. It is also nice that he has yet to see me play a hand (about 16 chances). I think he is folding 80-85% of the time. That may be overly optimistic....

ON TOP OF ALL THAT, I pick up one of my famous reads and decide that they way he put in his flop bet belied a missed hand (he sounded strong and confident as he announced "1200").

I was shocked when he started thinking about this, but confident that this was just a show to make it look like he had a tough decision to make. I was absolutely stunned when he said, "I have to call," and, after I revealed my stone-cold bluff, showed AT for two pair. I finished a disappointing 170. I do like this hand though.... MY READS SUCK!!!!!!


CSC

[A_PLUS]

Here is what I like about it.
170 players left in WSOP event. Increases your folding equity though the roof.

Your stacks are so close, that he gives you more credit, and immediately has the horror of losing all of those chips pop in his head


Here is what I dont like:
You really dont know what this guy will limp with other than AQ. It is impossible to know the math of this play without knowing what type of hands this guy plays, and will lay down.

Going after the pot in this fashion (especially with this flop) just seems unnecessary. This may be a slightly profitable bluff. But the reasons it is +EV (mentioned above) really have little to do with the cards. Meaning, that they arent going anywhere. You are basically relying on raw agression for your edge (which isnt a bad thing), but everything to do with the cards is bad bad bad. I think passing here is a good idea. I dont think of this in a 'passing up a small edge' situation, I think this is an edge you will have for the next few orbits, you just need to pick the right time to unleash it.

That being said, I love the balls of the play. Sucks getting busted, but if you have to go out, great way to do it.

[The Ocho]

No, I don't like it. That board is too likely to have hit the limper. And he is capable of limping hands like AQ, as you've seen. I hope you had some sort of super-read.

[billyjex]

you left yourself outs.. running outs!

you are a crazy bluffer, CSC, I admire that because I find it hard to ever bluff in a tournament. I understand your reasoning and think the plays ok -- hell, he thought pretty hard before calling you with two pair. I just would never do it.

[Jason Strasser]

[ QUOTE ]
I also believe that he HAS learned his lesson about limping big aces.

[/ QUOTE ]

What the heck is wrong with limping in a big ace here?

When you try something and it doesnt work, you don't get 'punished', it just doesnt work. But how you take it from there to deciding he'd never do it again is weird.

Why, after seing a guy limp AQ in this spot, you decide to play into his aggression with a hand that has no chance of winning, is beyond me. Gigabet used to yell at me for recklessly stealing in a sng when it wasn't called for, and accused me of just guessing what the open raiser had instead of having some sort of thought process.

Here, you are just guessing and hoping. Find better spots for your money, and when you bluff at least leave yourself a spot to imrpove.

-Jason

[KdoubleK]

I respect your insights CSC, but this looks like a case of FPS. This flop hits a lot of hands he will limp with and you have to absolutely sure he will lay down TP for this to work often enough. Also its just not necessary in this situation. I give you credit for going all the way with your read though, I don't do that often enough.

[AJo Go All In]

no. unless my hand is forced i avoid bluffing with a hand that is drawing near dead if called.

if you have to do it at least have a glimmer of hope like JT or Q9 or something. OR if you have to do it this hand, why not raise it up to 3000. it seems to me that this is a much better play than all-in: (1) it may actually look stronger (2) it probably folds out the same range of hands that all-in does (3) you can fold for your last 2500 if he moves in, as you are almost surely drawing to runners or dead.

but mostly you should just give this one up. i just don't think it will work often enough. what legit hand are you doing this with? on the one hand you are representing a made but vulnerable hand. but then you check the flop with only 1 player to act behind you risking a free card to a zillion gutshots? i mean, i guess you have QT? is that what we're representing? i think a typical player will put you on Ax, J9, QT, or some kind of pair+gutshot type hand. i don't think that range stands up well against this guy's range, so i think you are getting called and eliminated too often for this to be worth it.

[CardSharpCook]

I am, of course, dissappointed by all the negative feedback. When I left the tourney area that night, I sat in the bed of my truck for about an hour idly strumming my guitar with a sick feeling in my stomach while playing back both that hand and the thought process that lead me to that decision. Before that hand, I was telling myself, "tighten up, and fly right. You can easily make the money tonight for the first time at the WSOP." I can't tell you how bad it felt to know that I played myself out of the tourney.

But then... These are the plays that I make. When I'm not allowing my opponents to draw to five outs, I am giving them the opportunity to call and double up with ace high. This is the way I play. My thinking is, if all I do is play solid poker, I am waiting for the cards to make me a winner. I can't count on discipline, good calls and folds, smart bets, and luck alone. I want my edge to come from a willingness to lose.

This play here was for a 50% increase in my stack size. I didn't expect such a juicy opportunity. Ironically, if the flop pairs my two, I am check/folding. But a flop like this in a situation like this looked, to me, to be heaven-sent. This guy was genuinely disturbed that he had allowed his AQ hand to be cracked by some BB special. He wasn't, two or three hands later (in my opinion) going to be making the same mistake. I was sure of this.

Look. Just about every reputable poster on this forum easily could have converted this into a money finish. I could have too. I just couldn't say no to this opportunity. I appreciate all the comments, but I have to continue to believe in this style of play.

And no, I don't believe this was a case of FPS. And what I am asking him to put me on is an ace of unknown kicker. That is what I would put me on.

CSC

[AJo Go All In]

i am the last guy looking to sneak into the money. it has nothing to do with that. it was a bad spot to bluff. the logic of your read makes no sense to me. a play like this is only a good one if you have a super-read and you didn't have it.

[ QUOTE ]
This is the way I play. My thinking is, if all I do is play solid poker, I am waiting for the cards to make me a winner. I can't count on discipline, good calls and folds, smart bets, and luck alone. I want my edge to come from a willingness to lose.


[/ QUOTE ]


you know i read something somewhere that was talking about the 6-handed NLH events going on at the WSOP. how seemingly everyone was saying the same thing "i'm looking forward to the shorthanded event, it will suit my style since i'm so aggressive." no one was saying "well i'm a rock so i prefer the 10 handed game."