Seven
02-03-2003, 08:00 PM
This comes from the archives here.
"Heads up with JJ" by Luigina Curran
The question Luigina posted was as follows:
</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
When playing $10 -$20 hold'em recently, a very aggressive player who was first in raised and I reraised with JhJc. He called and we were the only players in the pot. The flop came Ad Qc 4s. He bet and I threw my hand away. Was I correct to do this? When he was awarded the pot I was able to see that he held the Js10s.
[/ QUOTE ]
Malmuth responded that it depends on who you are against and divided opponents into 3 categories:
1) a timid player who would never bet into your shown strength. suggestion: throw your hand away
2) an aggressive player who likes to lead with both hands and semi-bluffs. suggestion: keep your best 85% of hands and sometimes raise
3) a player who will checkraise you with a made hand since he knows you will auto-bet. suggestion: never fold to the bet--it is most likely a bluff (sometimes you will run into a monster, however)
I understand why you fold to category 1 players and why you raise category 3 players.
Now, Malmuth's argument about not always folding to a category 2 type player is that, since there will be at least 7 small bets in the pot at the time of his bet, you cannot allow him automatic profit if he chooses to bet every time. Basically, he is getting 7:1 to try to bluff you out or make his hand.
Now, it seems to me that if I 3-bet preflop and the flop comes AQx and the guy bets this flop every time, won't he lose his ass even if I fold JJ?
I'd like to look a little closer: what hands are a 'value' 3-bet of an utg category 2 player? Suppose we left it at JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK(so), AQs. Now, I would count the number of ways that I would continue with this flop *before* seeing the flop (ie. we do not reduce the number of AA here since we haven't yet seen the flop).
Then there are 6 AA, 6 KK, 6 QQ, 8 AK(so), 4 AQs with which we will continue playing against a category 2 player and 6 JJ with which we will not continue. (right?)
So it's 30:6 or 5:1 against that we will fold this flop for the first bet.
So if he's getting 7:1 to try to get us to fold for the first bet, and he only needs 5:1, he will show the automatic profit. I understand this. But against alot of the hands that he faces, he will lose a ton. For example, he holds AK and we hold AQ. Or he holds QQ and we hold AA. The converse also holds and we can end up on the short end. Usually, we will end up on the short end a little more often since a solid player will often raise with AQo utg but will not 3-bet with the same AQo (however, AQo hits this flop a lot better than AK, etc.)
My question is: why are we worried about his getting the automatic profit? To defeat this "auto-profit" strategy, we will often have to invest multiple bets with the JJ and we are losing a lot more on later streets than he is gaining on the flop by betting every time, aren't we? Isn't this a spot where we can't and really shouldn't do that much to defeat the opponent's strategy?
An analogue for me is the turn auto-bet when everyone's checked the flop and the pot is small. Now, because the pot is so small, you usually don't want to defeat this strategy with less than top pair because it will often cost two big bets to do so, even if the opponent who bet the turn often has no more than a weak draw. Am I wrong here too?
"Heads up with JJ" by Luigina Curran
The question Luigina posted was as follows:
</font><blockquote><font class="small">In reply to:</font><hr />
When playing $10 -$20 hold'em recently, a very aggressive player who was first in raised and I reraised with JhJc. He called and we were the only players in the pot. The flop came Ad Qc 4s. He bet and I threw my hand away. Was I correct to do this? When he was awarded the pot I was able to see that he held the Js10s.
[/ QUOTE ]
Malmuth responded that it depends on who you are against and divided opponents into 3 categories:
1) a timid player who would never bet into your shown strength. suggestion: throw your hand away
2) an aggressive player who likes to lead with both hands and semi-bluffs. suggestion: keep your best 85% of hands and sometimes raise
3) a player who will checkraise you with a made hand since he knows you will auto-bet. suggestion: never fold to the bet--it is most likely a bluff (sometimes you will run into a monster, however)
I understand why you fold to category 1 players and why you raise category 3 players.
Now, Malmuth's argument about not always folding to a category 2 type player is that, since there will be at least 7 small bets in the pot at the time of his bet, you cannot allow him automatic profit if he chooses to bet every time. Basically, he is getting 7:1 to try to bluff you out or make his hand.
Now, it seems to me that if I 3-bet preflop and the flop comes AQx and the guy bets this flop every time, won't he lose his ass even if I fold JJ?
I'd like to look a little closer: what hands are a 'value' 3-bet of an utg category 2 player? Suppose we left it at JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK(so), AQs. Now, I would count the number of ways that I would continue with this flop *before* seeing the flop (ie. we do not reduce the number of AA here since we haven't yet seen the flop).
Then there are 6 AA, 6 KK, 6 QQ, 8 AK(so), 4 AQs with which we will continue playing against a category 2 player and 6 JJ with which we will not continue. (right?)
So it's 30:6 or 5:1 against that we will fold this flop for the first bet.
So if he's getting 7:1 to try to get us to fold for the first bet, and he only needs 5:1, he will show the automatic profit. I understand this. But against alot of the hands that he faces, he will lose a ton. For example, he holds AK and we hold AQ. Or he holds QQ and we hold AA. The converse also holds and we can end up on the short end. Usually, we will end up on the short end a little more often since a solid player will often raise with AQo utg but will not 3-bet with the same AQo (however, AQo hits this flop a lot better than AK, etc.)
My question is: why are we worried about his getting the automatic profit? To defeat this "auto-profit" strategy, we will often have to invest multiple bets with the JJ and we are losing a lot more on later streets than he is gaining on the flop by betting every time, aren't we? Isn't this a spot where we can't and really shouldn't do that much to defeat the opponent's strategy?
An analogue for me is the turn auto-bet when everyone's checked the flop and the pot is small. Now, because the pot is so small, you usually don't want to defeat this strategy with less than top pair because it will often cost two big bets to do so, even if the opponent who bet the turn often has no more than a weak draw. Am I wrong here too?