99 near bubble

[schwza]

25 left out of 190 in party 100+9. 11th-20th pays 180; 1st pays 5.2k.

history - i am perceived as aggro by anyone who's paying attention. three orbits ago i open-raised from the CO with K4s and made a PC'ed call on a short SB, and i had been the most aggro player at the table till then. two orbits ago i opened from MP2 and folded to a reraise (with a6s - probably a bad choice). i had not played a hand since until this.

villain has been very tight. his push was instantaneous.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t600 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

BB (t11586)
UTG (t2802)
Hero (t7544)
MP1 (t15930)
MP2 (t4470)
CO (t6850)
Button (t3762)
SB (t7148)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1500</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t11586 (All-In)</font>, Hero ?

[PokerChamp22]

I'd much rather be moving allin first here rather than calling an allin, especially an allin by a rock. IMO, you are either a coinflip with the rock holding AK or you are far behind. You still can hold on for a bit, I think I lay this down.

[sekrah]

I fold..

You're a coinflip at best, and quite possible you are in very bad shape (10-10 or bigger).. I think you're being too optimistic to expect A-8 or lower.

Fold, you still have 10 BB's left to make a push later on.

[ansky451]

ew. I hate this spot. Against a rock, I fold this, he has you killed enough times for you not to gamble. Although I hate to leave myself with so few chips by folding, I suck it up and wait for a better spot.

[ChrisW]

If you were planning to call an all-in raise, IMO you should have moved in originally. You'd be advertizing a medium pair, so you'd probably avoid a confrontation with two big cards that way. The all-in play is a little worse as a perceived LAG because someone might have popped your standard raise with a smaller pair, but I think survival should be the goal here.

[kuro]

Why not push preflop or just raise half your stack and put the rest in on the flop if you're called? 12.5 bb is so awkward to play.

Folding to villain's push here is right, but it's tough because the range that villain defends against you is pretty big if he really thinks you're aggro and trying to exploit his tightness.

[Sam T.]

I think I'm with the push pre-flop crowd. Yes, 10BB is the rule of thumb, but I've also heard that from a maths point of view 13BB is more correct. (This may only apply if antes are in play, so I could be wrong here.)

I think the chances are good you're a coin-flip here. The villain puts you on a mediocre hand, and thinks he can push you off of it. If he's got AA-KK, he's not going to try to blast you out of the pot, he's going to try to stack you. Yes, QQ-TT is possible, but with the dead money in the pot, I would call.

I think this might be a "In it to win it" situation.

Sam