Kelly betting in No-Limit poker?

[chukakhan]

I just read the Bill Chin article on Epectation and Kelly betting in Blackjack and how it can be compared to poker etc.. I kept thinking about a possible strategy to use the kelly betting theory in deciding how much to bet in no limit holdem. I am also a card counter and use a 1/4 or quarter kelly while determining how much to bet while playing BJ etc. Can the theory behind Kelly be usefull when determinig how much to bet in no limit? Example, Say on the turn,in a no limit poker game, u have a flush draw with 100$ bank. You know you have a 19.6%(9outs) of making on flop. Should u bet 20%(19.6) of your Bank or buy in? You bet $20 because ( .20 x $100 = 20.00). I wonder if there is a easy way to apply some of the Kelly theory, it has helped blackjack players keep bankrolls in line, why not use it some way in poker. The more I think about it makes me think it would be mentally to cumbersome to crunch those type of numbers while actually playing! Does anybody have any thoughts on applying Kelly betting and no limit poker?

[sl4v3]

First of all, we apply Kelly to our entire bankroll, not to the amount we buy in for. Kelly maximizes our bankroll growth while ensuring we never go broke. If we lose our stack at a NL cash game, it's not a big deal. We just buy in for more chips. Preservation of our stack is not our primary goal. Making money is. We don't mind risking our stack if the risk is justified.

Secondly, Kelly can't be applied to our individual betting decisions because the amount we bet affects how our opponents respond. For example, if we have the absolute nuts on the turn, Kelly says we should always move all in. If we know our opponent wouldn't call an all-in bet, Kelly has cost us money.

Kelly is about bankroll management. Betting decisions are about trying to get your opponents to make mistakes.