Daily Hand Post: play along with KK [Archive]

jason_t

06-30-2005, 01:28 AM

SB: 52.8/3.5/.45, sees SD 40.7% after 140 hands
UTG+1: 54.8/10.7/1.46, sees SD 41.1% after 85 hands
MP1: 11/4.9/1.1, sees SD 18.5% after 164 hands
MP2: 26.6/4.73/1.39, sees SD 27.1% after 399 hands
CO: 40/0/.77, sees SD 33.3% after 20 hands

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 raises, MP2 3-bets, I cap, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (25 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, I....

A_C_Slater

06-30-2005, 01:34 AM

Call.

toss

06-30-2005, 01:42 AM

Come on more than one word.

HolyBejeesus

06-30-2005, 01:50 AM

I am a newer poster here, so I have to ask.

Is the decision here between raising and calling/raising the turn?

A_C_Slater

06-30-2005, 01:53 AM

I call because raising does not protect my hand with 28 Sb's in there raising here would give even 2 outers a chance to call profitably. An ideal situation would be wait for the turn (14.5 BB) for SB to check, UTG+1 checks, and the MP2 too bet so I can raise and make SB or UTG+1 face odds of 17.5/2 (8.75 to 1) which would make it incorrect for gutshots and middling pocket pairs to call.

But chances are that SB will lead out the turn again and if UTG+1 and MP2 calls then a raise will not protect my hand there either from the afformentioned gutshot or pocket pair looking to hit a set.

private joker

06-30-2005, 01:54 AM

This is a clear call. You can't protect your overpair in a 30sb pot, so call and raise the tizzle.

Joe Tall

06-30-2005, 02:10 AM

There some numbers there...I see them but they dont' matter...raise.

Jake (The Snake)

06-30-2005, 02:11 AM

I'm raising now. I don't see how we're ever gonna be able to protect this hand. Pump for value.

jason_t

06-30-2005, 02:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I am a newer poster here, so I have to ask.

Is the decision here between raising and calling/raising the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

The question is, do we put in value raises or wait for the turn to raise to try and protect in this insane pot.

Joe Tall

06-30-2005, 02:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a clear call. You can't protect your overpair in a 30sb pot, so call and raise the tizzle.

[/ QUOTE ]

They call flops not turns, get the overlay again and hit it.

jason_t

06-30-2005, 02:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I call because raising does not protect my hand with 28 Sb's in there raising here would give even 2 outers a chance to call profitably. An ideal situation would be wait for the turn (14.5 BB) for SB to check, UTG+1 checks, and the MP2 too bet so I can raise and make SB or UTG+1 face odds of 17.5/2 (8.75 to 1) which would make it incorrect for gutshots and middling pocket pairs to call.

But chances are that SB will lead out the turn again and if UTG+1 and MP2 calls then a raise will not protect my hand there either from the afformentioned gutshot or pocket pair looking to hit a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hands that have gutshots made it to the flop?

jgorham

06-30-2005, 02:16 AM

Your equity edge is so huge here I think you need to push the flop and raise. While the table is pretty passive, there is a chance someone else will 3bet a draw or a solid 9, allowing you to then cap. With this many players, just collect every extra bet you can, rather than wait til the turn, when they may not even stay in for one big bet.

KDawgCometh

06-30-2005, 02:16 AM

call, looking to raise a non ace or heart turn. a raise here isn't gonna thin the field with this massive pot. even with a riase, everyone will have oddds to draw to anything, so this I think is a good situation for hand protection on the turn rather than the flop

A_C_Slater

06-30-2005, 02:19 AM

What hands have gutshots that made it to the flop?

Ten seven soooted.

jason_t

06-30-2005, 02:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a clear call. You can't protect your overpair in a 30sb pot, so call and raise the tizzle.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about just pumping for some straight up value on the flop?

mosch

06-30-2005, 02:29 AM

raise.

These guys are coming along for the ride no matter what, so raise it up and hope it's your turn to win a big one.

A_C_Slater

06-30-2005, 02:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a clear call. You can't protect your overpair in a 30sb pot, so call and raise the tizzle.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about just pumping for some straight up value on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

You could do that. But I thought you wanted to make this a "you can't protect you hand on the flop post" so I indulged you.

I guess my read was wrong.

Nit!

jason_t

06-30-2005, 02:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This is a clear call. You can't protect your overpair in a 30sb pot, so call and raise the tizzle.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about just pumping for some straight up value on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

You could do that. But I thought you wanted to make this a "you can't protect you hand on the flop post" so I indulged you.

I guess my read was wrong.

Nit!

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't try indulging me. Think!

Buck_65

06-30-2005, 02:43 AM

I'm raising the flop and not losing a wink of sleep over it. I'm a fan of value raising.

setzf

06-30-2005, 02:46 AM

Everyone left in the hand sees way too many showdowns anyway so i'm raising here for value. if you had TT or JJ i'd say call and wait to raise the turn but not with your kings.

jason_t

06-30-2005, 02:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm raising the flop and not losing sleep over it like you seem to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your read is way off.

Buck_65

06-30-2005, 02:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm raising the flop and not losing sleep over it like you seem to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your read is way off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I didn't try very hard. I misread about 9 things already, still looking to see if I missed anything else. Just thought it was a super easy decision...

HolyBejeesus

06-30-2005, 02:50 AM

That everyone here sees too many showdowns is a good thing. If you raise the flop, they will have gotten 15:1 odds, which are sufficient for a 5 outer, and not very profitable for a 2 outer, if you consider implied odds. However, if you wait and raise the turn, as AC slater pointed out, they will be seeing the river having gotten only 8.5:1 odds, which results in a much larger FTOP mistake, and you profit much more.

One other pro of raising the flop, though, is that you get more information about SB's and CO's hands, both of whom cold-called the preflop cap.

EDIT: I guess this is exactly what you already said. But it means one should wait and raise the turn, yes?

jason_t

06-30-2005, 02:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm raising the flop and not losing sleep over it like you seem to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your read is way off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I didn't try very hard. I misread about 9 things already, still looking to see if I missed anything else. Just thought it was a super easy decision...

[/ QUOTE ]

I mean your read about me losing sleep over it.

Buck_65

06-30-2005, 02:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm raising the flop and not losing sleep over it like you seem to be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your read is way off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I didn't try very hard. I misread about 9 things already, still looking to see if I missed anything else. Just thought it was a super easy decision...

[/ QUOTE ]

I mean your read about me losing sleep over it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I deleted that like 5 seconds after I realized what I had said. I'm not thinking the least bit clearly right now, don't mind me.

A_C_Slater

06-30-2005, 02:57 AM

Okay.

Now let's see the turn ace.

jason_t

06-30-2005, 03:01 AM

I messed up the flop and called. This is a clear raise for value; I knew it was a mistake as soon as I called. But let's go to the turn.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: I am MP3 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 raises, MP2 3-bets, I cap, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (25 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, I call, CO calls.

Turn: (15 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 raises, I....

A_C_Slater

06-30-2005, 03:05 AM

Reraise. MP2 has Tagish stats (a bit too loose) and he could have a wide range of hands you are beating here. This is a dream. You can knock out/charge those Ace wonder bastards now. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

Will most likely give you position for the river and you can take a showdown if you want too.

Piiop

06-30-2005, 03:15 AM

3bets!. Mp2 was also waiting to raise. You have a higher PP and you didn't raise the flop. So you must raise now.

A_C_Slater

06-30-2005, 03:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
3bets!. Mp2 was also waiting to raise. You have a higher PP and you didn't raise the flop. So you must raise now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. MP2 also made the now classic mistake of waiting until the turn to raise because a flop raise doesn't "protect" your hand. Doesn't he know he has a clear value raise on the flop......?

OMG he had AA didn't he?

too bad.

xorbie

06-30-2005, 03:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
3bets!. Mp2 was also waiting to raise. You have a higher PP and you didn't raise the flop. So you must raise now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Azhrarn

06-30-2005, 03:22 AM

This a 3-bet, although I wouldn't be too happy about it. MP2 3-bet pre-flop, so he probably doesn't have a 6. Of a normal 3-betting pre-flop hand range, we're only behind AA and 99. However, MP2's stats are on the loose-passive side, which makes this come-alive turn raise smell like a monster. But the pot's ginormous, so we have to do what we can to win it.

Oh, and I like the flop call.

Piiop

06-30-2005, 03:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I pay women to pee on me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do guys get do it for free?

Evan

06-30-2005, 03:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
There some numbers there...I see them but they dont' matter...raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's my boy!

Jeff W

06-30-2005, 03:45 AM

Here's another way to look at this. By calling the flop, they have already made their mistake because you are going to raise them. They should not be able to call the first bet profitably w/ a 2-outer--but they are if you only call the flop.

Also, you win a lot of bets from players drawing dead with, KQ, JT, etc. You can't protect your hand on the turn anyway.

jason_t

06-30-2005, 03:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
There some numbers there...I see them but they dont' matter...raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's my boy!

[/ QUOTE ]

The intention of posting the stats was to shut up the people that say "reads?"

Evan

06-30-2005, 03:57 AM

I know, I really could have just quoted the last word in Joe's post if I was less lazy. Basically, unless your read is 'always flops sets' then it really doesn't matter.

HolyBejeesus

06-30-2005, 04:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Here's another way to look at this. By calling the flop, they have already made their mistake because you are going to raise them. They should not be able to call the first bet profitably w/ a 2-outer--but they are if you only call the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not trying to be argumentative here, because I agree with QTip's stfu post, and because I would normally raise the flop without even thinking about it. That said, if you wait until the turn their mistake becomes amplified because a) they are getting worse odds on their money due to the increased size of the turn bet relative to the pot and b) if a bad call on the flop and a bad call on the turn had same odds, you would make more money from the bad call on the turn because they are placing more money on the same bet with negative expected value. Is there a flaw with this logic?

Jeff W

06-30-2005, 04:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Is there a flaw with this logic?

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your thinking. Here's why I like a raise:

1. Our equity is huge:

equity (%)
35.2637 % { KcKd }
14.6385 % { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KJo+, QJo }
12.8938 % { 88-22, A9s-A2s, KTs-K2s, Q3s+, J5s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, ATo-A2o, KJo-K8o, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }
18.4050 % { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
18.7989 % { 88+, 66, 33, A9s+, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 95s+, 85s+, 75s+, 65s, 54s, AKo, A9o, K9o, Q9o+, J8o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o }

2. We might be able to fold out CO.

3. We give everyone a chance to 3-bet our raise or make a bad fold.

4. We can't really protect our hand from live draws on the flop or turn, so I feel we should gather equity from the dead hands. Your argument that we will be able to magnify their mistakes on the turn is a good one, though.

5. People drawing to dead overcards may bet into us on the turn when they catch a pair(mistaking our flop raise for a free card raise w/ overs) and allow us to force everyone to call 2 bets on the turn.

Honestly though, it doesn't matter much what we do in this hand.

Edit: One last thing, raising the flop sets us up to get check-raised on the turn or 3-bet on the flop and face the field with two cold.

akvsaq

06-30-2005, 04:44 AM

You can't thin the field on the flop nor unlikely on turn. Raise FOR VALUE on flop. If you did just call on flop, you MUST 3B the turn and play full throttle in this massive pot. Just my humble opinion. However, I would wait if you had a lower PP maybe TT, JJ, possibly QQ. Then, wait to raise a safe card on turn, they will only have 1 card to draw out on you.

jgorham

06-30-2005, 04:56 AM

I call the turn here, as I would have expected JJ-QQ to raise the flop. This guy has aces more often than not.

nfscreech

06-30-2005, 04:58 AM

Will raising the turn really protect this hand?
If small blind leads out again, the only hand you may drive out is CO, who will be getting 10:1 to cold call. Everyone else will be getting much better odds than that.
The only reason to wait until the turn to raise would be to exploit a larger edge on the turn, when a non-ace falls, and you can trap everyone for two big bets.
Of course, if you do raise this flop, the small blind may reraise, and you could get to cap it.

HolyBejeesus

06-30-2005, 05:05 AM

I appreciate the analysis. I agree with your reasoning, basically that our equity in this pot is very large (considering the hand ranges, not specific hands), and I now like the flop raise better.
This definitely qualifies as a large multiway pot, in which we should play as aggressively as possible, especially with said equity edge. With 4 other players still in the hand, a plethora of turn cards can destroy our hand, so it's better to jam the pot now while we can be more confident our bets are +EV.

HolyBejeesus

06-30-2005, 05:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This a 3-bet, although I wouldn't be too happy about it. MP2 3-bet pre-flop, so he probably doesn't have a 6. Of a normal 3-betting pre-flop hand range, we're only behind AA and 99. However, MP2's stats are on the loose-passive side, which makes this come-alive turn raise smell like a monster. But the pot's ginormous, so we have to do what we can to win it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, AA does seem likely. We're not folding, so we might as well 3-bet to knock out gutshots and unpaired aces.

jason_t

06-30-2005, 05:41 AM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 raises, MP2 3-bets, I cap, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (25 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, I call, CO calls.

Turn: (15 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 raises, I 3-bet, CO folds, SB caps, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, I call.

River: (29 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, I....

Jeff W

06-30-2005, 05:47 AM

I'd just call the turn.

You're so done for on the river. I think I call because this is one case where the mental anguish of folding the best hand is not worth the $2 loss(I think we're good 1/60 here) I take from calling.

Klepton

06-30-2005, 05:47 AM

fold. no one caps the turn with QQ

aK13

06-30-2005, 05:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 raises, MP2 3-bets, I cap, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (25 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, I call, CO calls.

Turn: (15 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 raises, I 3-bet, CO folds, SB caps, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, I call.

River: (29 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, I....

[/ QUOTE ]

Nobody has the balls to fold on the end.

jason_t

06-30-2005, 05:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd just call the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this since you advocated raising the flop. Is it because you don't think SB, with those numbers, would lead on the flop and turn without a monster?

Jeff W

06-30-2005, 06:25 AM

The situation has changed. There is a good shot SB has us beat + the chance MP2 has AA or 99. SB may have a 9, but there is a high probability he has trips or better. Even for a 52 VPIP player, .45 AF is very very low and his pfr corroborates his low aggression.

partygirluk

06-30-2005, 06:39 AM

Fold river. SB has told you he has 99 (or 33) and UTG+1's flush is better than your 1 pair.

gaming_mouse

06-30-2005, 08:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Nobody has the balls to fold on the end.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would fold that without a second thought, and if you wouddn't it's a leak.

I'll lay money that jason_t folded this as well.

thejameser

06-30-2005, 09:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Nobody has the balls to fold on the end.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would fold that without a second thought, and if you wouddn't it's a leak.

I'll lay money that jason_t folded this as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

i missed out on the play by play, but i agree with this.

crunchy1

06-30-2005, 09:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
and if you wouddn't it's a leak.

[/ QUOTE ]
Does having the opportunity to call/fold for 1 bet, closing the action, in a 31BB pot, with a large overpair to the board really happen with the frequency required for it to be a "leak"?

thejameser

06-30-2005, 09:25 AM

for the record: i agree that i think jason t folded, as i could find a good fold here as well. i think gaming mouse was making a more general statement about not being able get away from the big PP's when they are obviously beaten. but i speak on behalf of no one.

crunchy1

06-30-2005, 09:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i think gaming mouse was making a more general statement about not being able get away from the big PP's when they are obviously beaten. but i speak on behalf of no one.

[/ QUOTE ]
Gotcha...

[ QUOTE ]
for the record: i agree that i think jason t folded, as i could find a good fold here as well.

[/ QUOTE ]
Getting 31-to-1 on the call I don't think I could. I've been surprised too many times at the 2/4 game with a pot pushed my way on the end, after a crying call, to not throw $4 into the pot here.

SeaEagle

06-30-2005, 10:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Does having the opportunity to call/fold for 1 bet, closing the action, in a 31BB pot, with a large overpair to the board really happen with the frequency required for it to be a "leak"?

[/ QUOTE ]
Heh. I think it's safe to say that if you never, ever folded an overpair for one bet in a 31BB pot, your lifetime earnings wouldn't suffer much (if at all).

gaming_mouse

06-30-2005, 12:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think gaming mouse was making a more general statement about not being able get away from the big PP's when they are obviously beaten. but i speak on behalf of no one.

[/ QUOTE ]
Gotcha...

[/ QUOTE ]

crunchy,

check out the article by the dude (drew pruitt) about hand reading in the magazine this month. i think this hand is a perfect example of the principle in general. basically, it makes no difference that you only have to be good 1 in 31 times, because if you are hand-reading at all, you'll see that you'd be lucky to be good 1 time in 100.

the river is a very clear fold. if he didn't have the 2-outer, in fact, the correct move would be to fold to the turn cap. but the pot is so big that he actually has odds to draw to the 2 remaining kings.

gm

crunchy1

06-30-2005, 12:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think gaming mouse was making a more general statement about not being able get away from the big PP's when they are obviously beaten. but i speak on behalf of no one.

[/ QUOTE ]
Gotcha...

[/ QUOTE ]
crunchy,
check out the article by the dude (drew pruitt) about hand reading in the magazine this month. i think this hand is a perfect example of the principle in general. basically, it makes no difference that you only have to be good 1 in 31 times, because if you are hand-reading at all, you'll see that you'd be lucky to be good 1 time in 100.
the river is a very clear fold. if he didn't have the 2-outer, in fact, the correct move would be to fold to the turn cap. but the pot is so big that he actually has odds to draw to the 2 remaining kings. gm

[/ QUOTE ]
That was a great article - thanks! I agree that it's pretty easy to see we're beat here - in fact I never made any reference to this one way or another.

For the record - I never advocated calling or folding. I was refuting your statement that calling here is a leak. There's no way - according to the de facto Ed Miller definition from the classic post - that calling in this situation could be a leak. IMO calling or folding here, in this specific situation, in the long run - is simply not going to make a impressionable difference.

gaming_mouse

06-30-2005, 01:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]

For the record - I never advocated calling or folding. I was refuting your statement that calling here is a leak. There's no way - according to the de facto Ed Miller definition from the classic post - that calling in this situation could be a leak. IMO calling or folding here, in this specific situation, in the long run - is simply not going to make a impressionable difference.

[/ QUOTE ]

It depends on how we define this specific situation. I mean, KK in a 31 BB pot, yes, of course that will have no effect on our overall EV.

However, calling in large pots for one bet when it is a near certainty that you're beat is NOT correct, and it is a leak. I don't feel like searching for the thread, but Ed Miller actually made a post about this (or maybe a magazine article), where he emphasized that his original advice is SS was predicated on the phrase "when there is any reasonable chance you are ahead." He then gave some examples of huge pots where it was correct to fold for 1 bet on the river. I'd be willing to bet that he would agree this is one of those cases.

RatFink

06-30-2005, 01:27 PM

I am probably weak-tight but I'm not feeling good on the flop that my KK is any good here. SB called a cap cold and then leads out. Yes he plays a lot of hands, but that doesn't mean you can completely ignore that lead out on the flop. It's a two-flush board, and he wants to bet and not passively call all the action that is guaranteed to be coming. I have to now include a set he doesn't want to lose to a flush in his range of likely holdings.

Then on the flop none of the action comes. We don't bet our KK, and MP2 (PF 3-better) doesn't either. Both waiting till turn to protect hand?

On the turn, if SB had caught some strange 2 pair he was just counterfeited. But doesn't care and caps, strengthening the read of him having a set that boated on the turn. I'm no longer worried about whether MP2 has AA. I'm behind to catching one of 2 kings.

I don't catch it on the river and I fold rather than overcall.

nolanfan34

06-30-2005, 02:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I am probably weak-tight but I'm not feeling good on the flop that my KK is any good here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this is weak tight. Just because the SB bets out doesn't = set automatically. He did call 3.5 bets cold PF, and while that could mean something like 99, it also could be TT-QQ, so he might just lead out and cap the turn with his overpair.

I generally agree with the rest of your post, it's hard to imagine that we're ahead here on the river.

I think it might be a little bit closer than people think though. There was no flop raise by our hero, so if the SB has something like QQ, our turn 3-bet alone doesn't necessarily mean he's going to think that he's now behind. He could think that WE have TT or JJ, and was waiting until the turn.

The stranger play is UTG+1, who pretty much called the whole way. You have to worry that he hit a flush and is going for an overcall on the river. But he may also just have something like A9o, and think "hey, I have two pair here, I can't fold that".

In the end, while this combination is unlikely, and SB could easily have AA, which could lose to a flush or random OESD which hit on the river, I probably call this. I will go on mega-tilt if I fold the winning hand in a 30BB pot for one bet - and that's going to be a much larger leak than tossing in one more bet on the end.

jason_t

06-30-2005, 05:23 PM

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: I am MP3 with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 raises, MP2 3-bets, I cap, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (25 SB) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif (6 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, I call, CO calls.

Turn: (15 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 raises, I 3-bet, CO folds, SB caps, UTG+1 calls, MP2 folds, I call.

River: (29 BB) 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 calls, I fold.

Final Pot: 31 BB

Results below:
SB has 9d 9c (full house, nines full of sixes).
UTG+1 has 5h Jh (flush, jack high).
Outcome: SB wins 31 BB.

soweak.

06-30-2005, 05:46 PM

Was I the only one who notice the slightly passive SB called 4 bets cold then led into 3 pre flop raisers? Normally this shouts extreme strength to me and I'm looking to see a cheap showdown. Is this weak or is this results oriented?

jason_t

06-30-2005, 05:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Was I the only one who notice the slightly passive SB called 4 bets cold then led into 3 pre flop raisers? Normally this shouts extreme strength to me and I'm looking to see a cheap showdown. Is this weak or is this results oriented?

[/ QUOTE ]

That was one reason I posted the hand. It sure freaked me out and I wasn't sure if the best reaction was just call/call/call.