Run of bad cards?

[MargieX]

Hi all!

Today I want to ask you a question about the course of my play during my last apprx. 50 hours at Paradise Poker at the microlimit 0,5/1$ Hold'Em table.

Start with 50$ bankroll.

Hour 1-8: Bankroll reached 94 $ (great!)

hour 8-11: Dropped down to 15$.

hour 11-15: Climbed to 95 again.

hour 15 - 38: Climbed more or less steadily from 95 to 150 $

hour 38 - 45: dropped to 30 $ again (shock).
(A real run of bad cards?! My high pocket pairs got cracked regularly, my pocket threes that formed a set on the flop where beaten by someone who’s pocket sevens had made a set on the flop, too etc.)

hour 45 - 50 moved between 30 and 52, at the moment at 32 $ again.
Now I ask you: is this still a typical run or must I already assume it's somehow my fault and I'm doing something wrong? I should add that I use the theory from Hold'Em for advanced players, Beating low limit hold'em, Hold'em Excellence 1+2, which I studied thoroughly. But this made me doubt again a bit, moreover now I'm a bit frustrated also.


Best regards MargieX

[Homer]

It's hard to comment without seeing any of the hands you played. We can't really know whether you have been playing poorly, or have just experienced some negative fluctuations.

The only thing I can comment on is your -120 BB swing in 7 hours. This is an extreme downswing, which shouldn't happen to a good player often, if ever. I would examine my play during this period to see what caused me to lose 120 BB's. See how much was due to suckouts and how much was due to bad playing.

-- Homer

[STOSH1]

One thing you mention: "My high pocket pairs got cracked regularly, my pocket threes that formed a set on the flop where beaten"

One of the leaks I fight in my game is holding on to the beautiful starting hands too long. Being able to lay down Aces or Kings when you know you're beat is still hard. A set is great till there's a 4 flush on the river and a bet and raise to you. If you can save bets on the turn and river when your good hands are beat, that can be all your profit.

ps: If you figure out an easy way to do this, let me know. I'm still fighting with my own leak. /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif

[Homer]

It seems like a lot of people focus on the ability to lay down good to great hands as being a large source of one's profit in a poker game. I don't think this is at all true. Comments?

-- Homer

[Clarkmeister]

"I don't think this is at all true"

I agree.

[Homer]

Circle gets the square.

[dowlinga]

I sort of agree (and disagree) with Homer. I certainly don't believe that laying down big hands is a large source of your profits, but do feel that the ability to lay down these big hands when you're beat is important, but only when you're sure and the odds are against you. If you get these big ones a lot and lose consistently, you either have tremendously bad luck, or you are not playing them right (ie making it cheap for the river rats). I don't think you should be losing all that often with big pocket pairs. I also agree that you may want to re-examine that -120 period...thats a huge fluctuation for the micro limit game you were playing. One last thing...don't give too much value to a set of 3's, you're just asking for trouble.
Hope you break out of the funk
Ashley

[STOSH1]

I'll second that, (I sort of agree (and disagree) with Homer). When you get to the turn or river with a good starting hand, it's a "bet and raise, a worse hand will call" OR a "good laydown, no sense chasing, ya don't have the odds"
The dilemna is telling which hand is which. /forums/images/icons/wink.gif

I mentioned it because the original poster seemed to be saying on the large -120 swing there were a lot of good hands beat. That's gonna happen in poker, the trick is to limit your losses when it does happen.

My point and leak is the black AA hand you can't lay down
because it's so pretty even if there's a 4 heart st8 on the board. Those AA, KK, hands are just so nice after folding umpteen hands in a row, you keep betting and raising because you don't want to believe your read even if it's correct.

[DanS]

"One last thing...don't give too much value to a set of 3's, you're just asking for trouble."

Seriously, can you elaborate on this one??? In the loose passive to mildly aggressive 6-12 and 9-18 games I play, small-medium sets have a ton of (hidden) value.

[Stu Pidasso]

When I was starting out and still a losing player, someone once typed in the chat box "Stu, why do you overcall so much?". I did not have an answer for him. I pondered the question for a while. The moment I understood what he was asking is the moment I credit that I became a break even player.

Now I win in the limits I play regularly. It seems to me that now, I just don't have as many opportunities to overcall as I used to. I can't say the texture of the games have changed all that much. It seems, for some reason, other people still get plenty of opportunities to indulge in the overcall.

I have come to the conclusion that good players don't need to lay down strong hands as often as poorer players. Consequently they do not "profit" as much by making these "good" laydowns.

Stu