wondering if my push is +ev here in PP SnG

[agent_fish]

$10+1
Blinds are 150/300
(Approx. chip counts)
Hero is on button
Hero(1850) dealt Ten,2
SB(3575)
BB(2575)

Hero pushes all in.
??

I'm thinking I should attempt a blind steal here because if the blinds go around once they will have eaten 1/4 of my stack. Is this push +ev?

Also, they had not seen me push crap. I think they had only seen AK and KK.

[bluefeet]

hi mr. fish & welcome,

i'm with you, the next time you're first to act you'll be down to 4BB tops (not sure when they go up). T2 is unfortunate, but i think you have to push any 2 here to get this side of healthy - while you still have some FE. your table image certainly doesn't hurt the cause.

[agent_fish]

Thanks for the welcome. I have lurked for a few months now, but this is my first post.

[rvg72]

Looks like a good push to me... You have enough chips that having either one of them calling and losing would put them in a bad position + as you said, they probably didn't have any reason to believe that you would push with basically any 2 here.

I'm thinking the small blind calls with PP's or A+decent kicker and the big blind with PP's or Ax or K+decent kicker if they are typical $10+1 players.

[SamuraiPlatypus]

i think you have to, especially considering you have a relatively tight table image. of course, i'm fairly inexperienced at SNGs, so i'm not sure if most players at that level will take table image into account.

i say push, and if you're called, commence praying immediately.

[agent_fish]

You are correct. SB had AQ and busted me.

[lastchance]

6x BB from Button? T2o? Marginal at best, IMHO.

[rvg72]

I plugged the numbers into Eastbay's program and if you set the call ranges to 22+,A9+ for the small blind and 22+,A2+,K9+ for the big blind (a bit looser than normal since this is a $10+1) then it comes up with an overall EV of -0.2% so good call lastchance - it would appear that this is a marginal push.

According to Eastbay's program you would normally want a J7+ for the push to be +ev here.

[agent_fish]

Thank you for doing that. It is very helpful. Where did you acquire this program, and, more importantly, is it free?

[rvg72]

It isn't free - $79 seems to ring a bell but I could be wrong... It is written by a 2+2 forum member named Eastbay and lets you plug in various stack sizes, blind amounts and call ranges to determine if going all-in (or folding) would be a "better" play.

http://www.sitngo-analyzer.com/

I recently bought it and would probably recommend it if you are serious about playing. Not practical to use during a game but afterwards you can plug in the numbers and learn from it.