should I lay this down?

[SoBeDude]

Bellagio 30-60

MP raises, I 3bet in the CO with JJ. the Button 4 bets. I've seen the button make some questionable calls of a raise, but I haven't seen him step out of line with a reraise all session. (I also haven't seen him 3betting postflop except with very strong hands.)

MP folds and I call, assuming I need to hit my jack.

flop is J A 4

I check, button bets, I call.

turn is another rag, I check, button bets, I check-raise. button thinks for like 3 seconds and 3bets.

I instantly put him on AA and think I should let it go, but I just call him down and of course, he has Aces.

In hindsight I think I should have easily been able to let go of my hand against this player.

Opinions?

-Scott

[mike l.]

id have played the flop faster and then id put the 4th bet in on the turn and see what he does. the 3 bet on the turn doesnt mean more than AK to me.

[bobdibble]

Tough one.

I'm not good enough to put this down, but I think I'd save some money on it. From your description, I'm assuming this dude is only going to 4-bet PF with AKs or better.

I want to find out where I stand on the flop. I'd CR the flop, and if he 3-bets, I call down. This loses 3.5BB post flop when behind.

If he just calls the CR, I lead the rest of the way. This kind of dude isn't going to smooth-call flop and raise the turn. This line makes 3BB post flop when ahead.

Note that in your line, you gain 3.5BB when ahead, because he will only call your turn CR. So the lines are close when ahead.

In your line you have already lost 2.5BB when behind, assuming you fold, and don't get to showdown. So, assuming you fold, you loose 1BB less here. But, if you call down, your line costs 4.5BB, so it is 2BB worse.


Since both lines make almost the same when ahead, and I get to show mine down at an effective cost of 1BB. I'll take my line and showdown to save my sanity. Plus, there is the off chance that your hand is good, so I don't mind paying an effective 1BB compared to your line for this.

Note that the line I am advocating is read specific.

[SoBeDude]

I want to find out where I stand on the flop. I'd CR the flop, and if he 3-bets, I call down. This loses 3.5BB post flop when behind.

Most players WILL smoothcall my flop check-raise and then pop the turn. This costs me 4 BBs postflop to get to the showdown, or I have to lay it down to the turn raise, costing me 2 BBs postflop with no showdown.

-Scott

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
id have played the flop faster and then id put the 4th bet in on the turn and see what he does. the 3 bet on the turn doesnt mean more than AK to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against a typical Party 15 or 30 Donk, I'm taking your line.

But AA and AK are the only possible hands he'd play this way, IMO. and he *might* not even pop me with AK. He was a little timid.

But from what you're saying there is no way I should dump this, and you think he'll have AK often enough that I need to call down?

-Scott

[3rdCheckRaise]

[ QUOTE ]
the 3 bet on the turn doesnt mean more than AK to me

[/ QUOTE ]
...or AJs...

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the 3 bet on the turn doesnt mean more than AK to me

[/ QUOTE ]
...or AJs...

[/ QUOTE ]

no way this player is 4betting preflop with AJ

-Scott

[elysium]

hi scott

FWIW, you flopped solidly. you hit your set of jacks. you're going to have to show strength at some point in the hand. whether that strength is shown on the flop or turn doesn't really matter. whatever thrills you. you do have to play your set, however, even if you think that you might be trailing.

set over set can be very costly, but shet happens. shake it off. there is nothing you can do to prevent it. you must lose more than you want to in this spot.

[tomahawk]

Congratulate yourself on just calling down after the threebet. I don't think you can fold this hand to a turn threebet anytime unless opponent is someone you've played with ALOT.

[mike l.]

"But from what you're saying there is no way I should dump this, and you think he'll have AK often enough that I need to call down?"

yes. throwing away sets is not the way to go trying to save bets. just call him down here as you did and dont sweat it. if that's the worst mistake youre making, calling here, than you must be making a fortune every time you even look at a poker table.

[mike l.]

"or AJs..."

that's not a 4 betting hand in the bellagio 30-60 or anywhere in vegass for that matter as far as ive ever seen.

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
hi scott

FWIW, you flopped solidly. you hit your set of jacks. you're going to have to show strength at some point in the hand. whether that strength is shown on the flop or turn doesn't really matter. whatever thrills you. you do have to play your set, however, even if you think that you might be trailing.

set over set can be very costly, but shet happens. shake it off. there is nothing you can do to prevent it. you must lose more than you want to in this spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

sure set over set can be costly. but I think that I can really narrow my opponents range of hands here quite restrictively.

So are you saying I should have lost more, or did I lose the right amount?
(I still think folding might have been the right play, with my very specific read).

-Scott

[RicktheRuler]

[ QUOTE ]
(I also haven't seen him 3betting postflop except with very strong hands.)



[/ QUOTE ]

Don't underestimate the importance of your read. What could he have AA or AJs right? How does he view you? It sounds like he is more likely to have AA than AJs, right? I think you can lay this down also. It sucks, I know.

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
(I also haven't seen him 3betting postflop except with very strong hands.)



[/ QUOTE ]

Don't underestimate the importance of your read. What could he have AA or AJs right? How does he view you? It sounds like he is more likely to have AA than AJs, right? I think you can lay this down also. It sucks, I know.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Tommy could have found the fold.

-Scott

[elysium]

hi scott

in this situation your read, at least temporarily, goes out the window. you must bet strongly to get the bets in there while you can with a hand this strong. you cannot avoid this since more often than not, you will be in the lead. if you stop betting on the turn, you are doing the best that you can possibly do in this spot, especially if you stop somewhere near the 4 bet mark.

mason makes a good point about handreading and tells; he says that the great majority of the time your read and tells are meaningless since you will do the same thing anyway. whenever your read turns out to be accurate, you will often recognize this fact right away and say, 'well, i knew what he had but i had to call anyway.', for reasons of pot odds or whatever, and not give it a second thought. it's only when you are powerfully strong but think that your opponent is even more powerful that the second guessing takes place after the showdown proves that your instinct was right. but this is one of those kind of reads that mason speaks about. the reason that you can't act on your read is because of the mathematics. when the A flops, his holding AA is much less likely now, not mathematically more likely. when the J flops, your holding of JJ is also much less likely according to the laws of mathematics. but you know that in this case, you have skirted the laws of math and actually do have the JJ, even though there is a J on the board. the rareity of set over set begins to sink in, and how mathematically improbable it would be. soon, you convince yourself that it is impossible, and begin firing chips into what, in hindsight, will appear to you to be so obviously the dominating hand. and you will begin to brood and second guess. there is nothing that you can do about that either. you must lose a lot of chips in these spots. you must also second guess after the hand is over. thankfully this situation doesn't happen very often, but when it does, that is what can be expected.

[3rdCheckRaise]

I've been 4 beted with less...but then again thats me (vpip 34+).... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[SoBeDude]

so is this a yes (that I lost the right amount) or no?

It seems you're advocating I lose another 2 big bets, as I can't stop at 4. for surely when I put in the 4th bet, he puts in the 5th...

-Scott

[Ezcheeze]

[ QUOTE ]
But from what you're saying there is no way I should dump this, and you think he'll have AK often enough that I need to call down?

[/ QUOTE ]

He'll have whatever enough of the time for you to call down. AK, complete bluff, or some other wierd junk. The point is you only lose to one hand and you are being laid odds to call down. Isn't it possible he overplayed 44 or the pair of whatever card came on the turn?

I agree with mike l. here that this is not the spot to be saving bets by folding. If your read is that strong then you save bets by not 4 betting the turn. When you think about folding you've ventured into tell territory. Your fold will only be because of a specific highly verified tell or betting pattern you've obvserved in this player over a long period of time. We obviously can't help you there but my own opinion is to not fold here.

[elysium]

hi scott

you're $17.50 shy of losing a goodly sum.

[bobdibble]

[ QUOTE ]
I want to find out where I stand on the flop. I'd CR the flop, and if he 3-bets, I call down. This loses 3.5BB post flop when behind.

Most players WILL smoothcall my flop check-raise and then pop the turn. This costs me 4 BBs postflop to get to the showdown, or I have to lay it down to the turn raise, costing me 2 BBs postflop with no showdown.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that most players would do this, but I infered from your read that this guy wouldn't. The weak-tight ABC guys I play live that match your read don't do this.

[bernie]

I did this the other night when I had AA 3 bet behind me by a tight raiser (he likely wouldn't be doing this with AK).

Flop had a K, I bet, he raised, I just check-called the rest of the way to see exactly what I thought he had.

To me, a c/r on the turn could cause him to fold. If you're ahead, you don't want that. Unless you know he would call out with worse.

b

[dmoney]

One thing that is also plausible. Beit unlikely.

Lets say this guy THINKS that AJ is a good hand to play at this point (maybe he hasnt been getting great cards for the past couple hours and wants to play a hand so he wants to OUTplay everyone. i personally still think its possible that he was playing an A,K - A,Q, - or even an A-J.

I've seen FAR FAR stranger things. some dood playing queen 5 suited and raising it over and over with bottom pair. (5s) i can only assume hopeing to hit the queen.

Remember most people are dumb, just becuase they sit at a poker table does NOT mean they are intelligent /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Never assume your opponent is making a logical decision. ive lost WAY to much money thinking everyone plays the game the way they are supposed 2 /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[SoBeDude]

this player isn't 4betting me preflop with AJ.

-Scott

[Mike Gallo]

Excellent response. Welcome back Elysium, I for one have missed you /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[dblgutshot]

[ QUOTE ]

I've seen FAR FAR stranger things. some dood playing queen 5 suited and raising it over and over with bottom pair. (5s) i can only assume hopeing to hit the queen.

[/ QUOTE ]

Was it Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif?

[Mikey]

I remember 1 time Mike Gallo flopped a set of Jacks on me in a $.50 -$1.00 game on Party Poker when we had the 2+2 game. I had K6 of hearts and was drawing to a flush and it never go there. It would have been nice to beat him in that hand.

:-)

Mike I'll be in AC at the TAJ this weekend I want to play poker with you. Let me know if you want to play with me too. This way I don't have to play by my lonesome. I want to checkraise you. I want to reraise you preflop. I want to fold to your bets and I want to fold to all your checkraises.

[Mike Gallo]

Mike I'll be in AC at the TAJ this weekend I want to play poker with you. Let me know if you want to play with me too. This way I don't have to play by my lonesome.

Shoot me a private message. I plan on playing at Caesars or the House of Blues this weekend.

[elysium]

hi mike

thanks, it's nice to be loved.

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I've seen FAR FAR stranger things. some dood playing queen 5 suited and raising it over and over with bottom pair. (5s) i can only assume hopeing to hit the queen.

[/ QUOTE ]

Was it Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif?

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, that was my first thought, too.

SpaceAce