WSOP Group Matchup Odds

[llabb]

Cross-posted from WPT forum, since people there sometimes have heavy opinions on one player over another, and have also discussed WSOP odds in the past.

Found something different from the standard odds to win or to make the final table. Thought some of you might enjoy seeing these odds. Apologies for the all caps, it's cut and pasted from the site.

WSOP MAIN EVENT: HIGHEST FINISH IN THE MONEY

GRP 1
NONE IN THE MONEY 7-5
PHIL IVEY 3-1
MICHAEL MIZRACHI 4-1
CHRIS FERGUSON 9-2
DANIEL NEGREANU 5-1

GRP 2
NONE IN THE MONEY 6-5
ERICK LINDGREN 3-1
PHIL HELLMUTH 7-2
DAN HARRINGTON 9-2
JOHN JUANDA 11-2

GRP 3
NONE IN THE MONEY 1-1
TED FORREST 3-1
ANTONIO ESFANDIARI 7-2
HOWARD LEDERER 9-2
ALAN GOEHRING 11-2

GRP 4
NONE IN THE MONEY 1-1
JOHNNY CHAN 7-2
JENNIFER HARMAN 4-1
TODD BRUNSON 9-2
DOYLE BRUNSON 9-2

GRP 5
NONE IN THE MONEY 4-5
DAVE "DEVIL FISH" ULLIOT 7-2
CHRIS BIGLER 9-2
MAX PESCATORI 9-2
RAM VASWANI 5-1

GRP 6
NONE IN THE MONEY 3-5
ERICK SEIDEL 3-1
AMIR VAHEDI 9-2
SCOTTY NGUYEN 9-2
DAVID WILLIAMS 11-2

GRP 7
NONE IN THE MONEY 3-5
JUHA HELPPI 7-2
JOHN PHAN 7-2
T.J. CLOUTIER 4-1
ANNIE DUKE 6-1

GRP 8
NONE IN THE MONEY 3-5
ALAN CUNNINGHAM 3-1
DAVID PLASTIK 4-1
BILL GAZES 5-1
JEFF SHULMAN 5-1

[hogua]

I saw this earlier today. Ever sicne then, I've been thinking that Daniel N in group one at 5-1 is a great bet.

[tolbiny]

What about Harrington in group 2?

[Josh W]

Well, in order to win, he needs to make the money.

If 10% of the people make the money (good guess), then the average chance of somebody making the money is 9:1. If Danny is twice as likely as avg to make the money, he's 4:1 to make the money.

Now, he needs to outlast a handful of world class players, as well....

I don't see a ton of overlay, but maybe a tiny bit...

Josh