Am I the only one that pushes this?

[octaveshift]

1. I had only stolen once before.
2. Only hand I showed down entire game was AQ for 2 pair.
3. t150 is looking pretty good to me right now.



Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (5 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

SB (t1148)
BB (t861)
UTG (t2861)
Hero (t980)
Button (t2150)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, HERO PUSHES HIS GODDAMN CHIPS INTO THE MIDDLE, Button calls t980, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

[Nick B.]

how good did -980 look? I could see raising to 3bb and folding to an AI. I think with 10bb you can make that play. Queen high sucks, (although I think it is better than Ax in this situation), and I don't want all my chips in the middle with it. With 5-8bb, I would probably fold, 4 or less push, and 9+ make a normal raise and likely fold to a push.

[kamrann]

No way whatsoever that that is worth a push. You really think adding 150 chips to your stack is worth the risk? I don't think thats even remotely close. But I might be wrong...

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
No way whatsoever that that is worth a push. You really think adding 150 chips to your stack is worth the risk? I don't think thats even remotely close. But I might be wrong...

[/ QUOTE ]

SGA says pushing and folding are both reasonable if villains are set to average. (IE- Will call with 77+,A9+.)
I

[45suited]

Totally read dependant. Since you had a tight image, I don't hate this at all.

I think it's a lot closer call than people are indicating. I certainly like it more than a 3BB raise followed by folding to an all-in.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

not sure I like to push QJ from MP. UTG-MP I want something stronger Ax or pp. From button or SB... I might push, but I will always be worried about the big stacks, unless you have a good read on them (one folded which is nice, but the other can still hurt you).

[Lady Dont Tekno]

BB could be getting ready to push. Raise to 400ish/fold to the BB push.

LDT

[BigEndian]

Raise to 3xBB or fold. Don't push here. The risk-reward is not worth it. If the blinds were 75-150 or 100-200 then it's an auto-push.

- Jim

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
how good did -980 look? I could see raising to 3bb and folding to an AI. I think with 10bb you can make that play. Queen high sucks, (although I think it is better than Ax in this situation), and I don't want all my chips in the middle with it. With 5-8bb, I would probably fold, 4 or less push, and 9+ make a normal raise and likely fold to a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting line. Thanks for the suggestion. My thought was that I currently have FE against all of the stacks, but I will be losing it very shortly.

I think I overestimate the ability of my opponents to notice that I have been projecting a drum tight image.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]

I think I overestimate the ability of my opponents to notice that I have been projecting a drum tight image.

[/ QUOTE ]

Depending on what buy-in you play you are probably correct, especially if you're tight they won't notice. If you're a maniac they will.

I am surprised by the responses where people are suggesting 3xbb, leaving you with less than 7xbb... that can't be right. pushing w/ 2 worse cards from button or SB has to be smarter than 3xbb from MP... IMO.

[kamrann]

Fair enough, I have to say I'm surprised. Two points though:

1. The average PP moron will definitely be calling you here with KQ too, which is very clearly going to adversely affect the numbers.

2. More importantly, SGA is based on ICM, and ICM does not take into account player skill. For example, ICM your equity at the start of a SNG and it will tell you you have 10% prizepool equity. Clearly this is incorrect if you're a winning player. Point being, SGA/ICM are best used when the blinds dictate a push/fold strategy. With the blinds and your stack in this example, you are not yet at the point where pushing and folding are the only ways to play, so you cannot assume something is a good move just because SGA says it's +$EV. To put it another way, at this stage of a tournament the stack sizes alone do not determine your equity. If you're a skilled player, you have more equity than ICM will tell you, which comes from your ability to outplay people. Therefore, you should be less inclined to risk your stack in marginal situations.

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
BB could be getting ready to push. Raise to 400ish/fold to the BB push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? You'd raise almost half your stack and then fold when getting almost 3:1 on your money? Are you serious?

[mlagoo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
BB could be getting ready to push. Raise to 400ish/fold to the BB push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? You'd raise almost half your stack and then fold when getting almost 3:1 on your money? Are you serious?

[/ QUOTE ]

playing bad is the new playing good

edit: also, fwiw, i fold this, although i probably hate myself when the flop comes queen high. i just don't like the idea that i'm a dog to pretty much any hand that calls, and i have one or two big stacks left to act, as well as a BB who is getting low on chips as well and may decide this is a good time to pooosh.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No way whatsoever that that is worth a push. You really think adding 150 chips to your stack is worth the risk? I don't think thats even remotely close. But I might be wrong...

[/ QUOTE ]

SGA says pushing and folding are both reasonable if villains are set to average. (IE- Will call with 77+,A9+.)
I

[/ QUOTE ]

Pass on marginal situations when you still have 10xBB.

eastbay

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]
Therefore, you should be less inclined to risk your stack in marginal situations.

[/ QUOTE ]

Very interesting analysis. I think one of my leaks is that I am more likely to take the aggressive move over the passive one in situations like this.

I think I need to start putting more faith in my skillset and stop panicking as soon as I drop below 10x BB.

[HeroInBlack]

Best: Fold.
Not too bad, but not too good: Push
Bad: Limp.
Worst: Raise anything other than all in.

[octaveshift]

[ QUOTE ]

Pass on marginal situations when you still have 10xBB.


[/ QUOTE ]

Hah! I was typing my reply as you were posting this.

I think it's now pretty clear that I boned this.


/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

[ QUOTE ]

I think I need to start putting more faith in my skillset and stop panicking as soon as I drop below 10x BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

I worry about this too

[Chaostracize]

Why?

The same hands that will be reraising all in here are the ones that will be calling an all in, so you may as well see if you can steal. If you just get called your hand isn't so horrible 5 handed that you can't be comfortable with getting the money in postflop with TP. This is a fine spot to raise 2.5-3x the BB, and I think it's the best play. FOlding here after a reraise and leaving yourself with 7-7.5BBs isn't horrible, you still have some folding equity.

[HeroInBlack]

Well, if you raise to 3xBB and get reraised all in here the pot will be 1311 I think, and it will be only 561 to call.

I just wouldn't want to put myself in the spot of having to decide whether to call there or not. I can avoid that by folding in the beginning.

Just my opinion. I see where you're coming from.

[sng-sam]

FOLD PREFLOP

[DarrenX]

I push. You know why? BEACAUSE OF YOU!!! I LEARNED IT BY WATCHING YOU, OKAY???

Anyone? Or did I just date myself? /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Seriously, though- 3 months ago before I started lurking here I'd think it was INSANE to push here. Now I think it's close.

-LAGgin' it up

[tminus]

UTG got out of the way
plus SB and B need something good to call
Id push

i always wonder though if they realize how tight you've been playing though

[jeffraider]

Pushing?!!!?! Raising 3BB?!!!?! Is this some sort of STT forum test?

JUST FOLD IT'S SO EASY AND OBVIOUS

[tminus]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise to 400ish/fold to the BB push.

[/ QUOTE ]

better yet raise to 979 and then fold flop

[USCSigma1097]

Here's the most important point...what hand in the world is your opponent going to call with that QJ is ahead of...If they really suck, which they might...they're calling with ax, kx, and any pp. you beat none of those.

Sigma

[Bigwig]

I don't think I push this. With just under 10BB you're pretty healthy. Especially considering that the next level is no longer 100/200. I can see shoving them in from the SB, perhaps even the Button, but not with 3 left to act.

[Bigwig]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's the most important point...what hand in the world is your opponent going to call with that QJ is ahead of...If they really suck, which they might...they're calling with ax, kx, and any pp. you beat none of those.

Sigma

[/ QUOTE ]

No, that's NOT the most important point. If you're pushing an appropriate amount in SNG play, you're going to be behind a LOT when you get called. That doesn't mean you made a mistake. The idea is to steal blinds with fold equity and have a good enough hand that if you get called you aren't always a 2-1 dog.

[BigEndian]

This is not very good poker logic.

- Jim

[Flopzilla]

I like the push. At a 5 handed table, QJ ain't that bad a hand, plus you only had maybe 15 or so hands left before you are blinded down so much that any bet by you will be called. The big stack folded, you had first equity in the pot with the 75% of the remaining players. The blinds you may pick up will give you an extra five hands to pick up a premium pair.

A preflop raise of 3XBB and any bet by you post flop would leave you pot committed. I think the odds are that if you are called you are facing a middle pair here, winning will put you in contention.

[lastchance]

No reason to shove QJo in MP with 10x BB, especially with new 75/150 level.

[downtown]

[ QUOTE ]

I think I overestimate the ability of my opponents to notice that I have been projecting a drum tight image.

[/ QUOTE ]

To me this is the key issue at play, and one that will most affect and improve your future play if you play at $55 or below, IMO. Sure maybe you will hesitate to push QJ here in the future, but more importantly I think you should just assume the other guy is just looking at his cards and has no reads on you at all unless you're uberLAG. It depends on the level I suppose (I only play up to $33 with the occasional $55), but over my small amount of (1K or so) SNGs I have stopped assuming opponents make any sort of decision based upon my image. Unless it's after the bubble, in which case they likely think I'm a maniac, but it doesn't matter anymore at that point, of course.

[lastchance]

Two things: One, raising a third of your stack and folding getting 2:1 is horrible.

Two, the only image most people notice is 2+2 "pushbot" mode who constantly steals their blinds.

[11t]

Only a mistake if you know the button to be an awful player who might call you.

I tend to not push stuff like this though at just under 10bb unless the blinds are going up soon.

[Gramps]

With the old 50/100 &gt; 100/200 jump that would still be a -EV push. Your FE is in some jeopardy with the doubling blind level coming up, but you still have time to pay a round of blinds and wait an orbit if needed. You probably won't get called, and it's nice to win 150 chips (although they're not all that valuable), but of the times you are called, you're going to be like a 2:1 dog or so on average...

...but with the new 75/150 blind level in between 50/100 and 100/200, it becomes a pretty bad push IMO. Your FE is in no jeopardy. There's not much advantage gained with an extra 150 chips. The BB may open up his calling standards a bit given his shortest stack. You have to get past 3 people. QJ ain't the hand to be doing it with. If you had like 700 chips 5-handed, then maybe you go ahead and do it, but not 950.

FWIW, the raise 3XBB and fold to a push is a crappy alternative as well IMO (maybe even crappier). Why throw a "3 BB carrot" out there just to win 1.5BB? You have FE, don't dangle it out there for someone to steal it from you - people do come over the top of these raises with hands they wouldn't call your push with, b/c they realize they have a chance to fold you out and win 4.5 BB uncontested (and if they're called, they know they'll win a fair % of the time as well - the combination of probabilities turns a -EV calling situation into a +EV pushing-over-the-top situation). You have to overbet the pot double to win it, and the chips you're putting at risk (per chip) are probably worth more tangibly than the ones you're trying to steal.

If I see someone make a play like that (raise 2.5-3XBB with 10BB or less, then fold to a push), I make a note, and that's the person I'm going to open up my pushing-over-the-top standards against.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
With the old 50/100 &gt; 100/200 jump that would still be a -EV push. Your FE is in some jeopardy with the doubling blind level coming up, but you still have time to pay a round of blinds and wait an orbit if needed. You probably won't get called, and it's nice to win 150 chips (although they're not all that valuable), but of the times you are called, you're going to be like a 2:1 dog or so on average...

...but with the new 75/150 blind level in between 50/100 and 100/200, it becomes a pretty bad push IMO. Your FE is in no jeopardy. There's not much advantage gained with an extra 150 chips. The BB may open up his calling standards a bit given his shortest stack. You have to get past 3 people. QJ ain't the hand to be doing it with. If you had like 700 chips 5-handed, then maybe you go ahead and do it, but not 950.

FWIW, the raise 3XBB and fold to a push is a crappy alternative as well IMO (maybe even crappier). Why throw a "3 BB carrot" out there just to win 1.5BB? You have FE, don't dangle it out there for someone to steal it from you - people do come over the top of these raises with hands they wouldn't call your push with, b/c they realize they have a chance to fold you out and win 4.5 BB uncontested (and if they're called, they know they'll win a fair % of the time as well - the combination of probabilities turns a -EV calling situation into a +EV pushing-over-the-top situation). You have to overbet the pot double to win it, and the chips you're putting at risk (per chip) are probably worth more tangibly than the ones you're trying to steal.

If I see someone make a play like that (raise 2.5-3XBB with 10BB or less, then fold to a push), I make a note, and that's the person I'm going to open up my pushing-over-the-top standards against.

[/ QUOTE ]

my sentiments exactly. this is by far the best post yet (that i have seen) that adresses the new blind level. thank you gramps.

johnny