Drawing to a 9 on the last draw (2-7TD)?

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

This may be simple (and I may be stupid), but I am going to ask it anyway.

Assume your opponent is an above average player and called your button raise (742xx) in BB. Both players draw 2 on the first draw (bet-call or check-bet-call) and 2 on the second draw.

You hold 9742A.

Check. Check. Pot is small (lets assume 3BB).

How many cards do you draw if your opponent stands pat?

Draws 1?

Draws 2?

[randomstumbl]

I would draw one. You might be dead, but you might not be and you'll probably get a free showdown.

If the player's good, you'll never get a free showdown drawing two. Plus, you just won't hit any kind of hand that often.

Edited to add: If your opponent is really good/tricky, they may have been going for a checkraise that missed. Because of that, I wouldn't really want to call a bet on the end against some opponents.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

Sorry... I didn't make it clear... there were really three questions -- what to do when your opponent:

(A) stands pat
(B) draws one
(C) draws two


I think I agree with drawing one if he is pat and hoping for a free showdown with a 9-low.

[timprov]

I draw one in all those situations against most players.

[randomstumbl]

I'm always drawing one. Drawing two, your average hand is something like KQ high.

I get more willing to call a bet if they're not pat and I don't pair.

If they're drawing two, I'm autobetting when checked to. I wouldn't even need to see the card.

[MarkGritter]

I would draw one in all these situations. If you draw two you're only 9% likely to get an 87 or better and only 13% to get a 98 or better. You are 34% to get a 98 or 97 by drawing one.

Against a quality one-card draw like 7532x you are a dog either way, but the draw to a 9 is about 11% better (43% equity vs 32%.)

Against a two-card draw like 732xx your draw to a 9 is a 60-40 favorite.

Against a pat hand: Villian could well be standing pat with a T or J since there was no action on the previous round and you drew two (he really should normally bet an 8 or a 7, and maybe a 9--- the chances of picking up a bet after the last draw are too small.)

The base chances of him making a 7 with a quality two-card draw are around 4%, an 8 the same, a 9 about 6%, a T 7% and a J 9%. Even if we ignore the action this means you are drawing live at least 2/3rds of the time. Against someone who will not stand pat with a J OOP you are probably better off drawing to the 9 (1/3+ chance of your 30% draw being good vs. 2/3- chance of needing to hit your 9% draw.)

The pot is small here, but...

[ QUOTE ]

If the player's good, you'll never get a free showdown drawing two. Plus, you just won't hit any kind of hand that often.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think it's a good idea to autobet against a player who drew two. If Villian is pat with a decent hand he should have gotten in his bet before the last draw.

What is Hero going to call here that Villian beats? The pot is small, so Hero needs to think he's good 20% of the time (4:1). So probably no less than a T is needed to call.

Hero is 22% likely to get a T or better and call, 14% to get a 9 or better. So when hero calls he is 63% likely to have a nine or better. Betting even a pat T5432 here is definitely a leak unless Hero calls when he makes J's as well.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm always drawing one. Drawing two, your average hand is something like KQ high.

I get more willing to call a bet if they're not pat and I don't pair.

If they're drawing two, I'm autobetting when checked to. I wouldn't even need to see the card.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you and timprov are correct -- someone was trying to convince me that it was sometimes right to draw 2 here... I think it would take a super good read (borderline ESP) for me to consider doing that.

[TakeMeToTheRiver]

And thank you (again) Mark for the analysis -- I need to get my head wrapped around the numbers a little better.

[randomstumbl]

[ QUOTE ]
Against a pat hand: Villian could well be standing pat with a T or J since there was no action on the previous round and you drew two (he really should normally bet an 8 or a 7, and maybe a 9--- the chances of picking up a bet after the last draw are too small.)

[/ QUOTE ]

I was playing yesterday and saw a move that I think is actually really smart (although the player doing it was somewhat of an oddball).

Both Villian and Hero are drawing two before the third draw. Hero has position. Villian does a checkraise with an 86.

I liked this play because Hero will almost always bet when he improves to a one card draw. So, Hero draws 2 whenever Villian gives a free card. Also, Hero will assume Villian has a much worse hand when he gives a free card.

Any thoughts on this play?

[timprov]

[ QUOTE ]

Both Villian and Hero are drawing two before the third draw. Hero has position. Villian does a checkraise with an 86.

I liked this play because Hero will almost always bet when he improves to a one card draw. So, Hero draws 2 whenever Villian gives a free card. Also, Hero will assume Villian has a much worse hand when he gives a free card.

Any thoughts on this play?

[/ QUOTE ]

I like it if Hero will fold any, or most, two-card draws to a bet. If he's going to call drawing two, I'd prefer to bet out.

[timprov]

My typical method when HU OOP is to bet any hand I hope to stand pat with on the third round, and decide whether to break if I get raised. Obviously this isn't a good idea against a player smart enough to raise to make me break or call to freeze me on a hand, but it works pretty well against the average UB player.

I'll then typically check on the end if I have a 9 or worse against someone drawing 1, and a T or worse against someone drawing two.

[SumZero]

If my opponent draws 1 or draws 2 I'm only drawing 1. J-high is favorite over any 1 card draw. Against a great 1 card draw you'll win like 40% of the time when you draw 1. You'll only win 1/3 when you draw 2.

If my opponent draws 2 I'm definitely only drawing 1. You win about 60% of the time you draw 1. Just under 40% of the time you stand pat and you are even-ish money if you draw 2 (depending on how smooth your opp is).

If my opponent stands pat I have to wonder about my read on him. If he didn't bet it but then didn't draw you have to think 1 of 2 things is going on:

- He's really strong and was going for the check raise.

- He's really weak and was testing to see if you bet and since you didn't he thinks you'll be drawing at least 1 if not 2 cards.

I think the second is more likely.

If I'm him I'm standing on pat T's and likely on pat J's too (and sometimes even pat Q's). So if he drew 2 what is the distribution of hands that he's likely to have and how many of them beat a 9? I think you are best drawing 1 here.

So draw 1 all around.