Top two pair against a total rock

[chumsferd]

This was in a rebuy NLHE MTT on Pokerstars, but this hand occured well after the rebuy period was over. There were 939 entrants, 143 remain and 63 places pay. Blinds are currently 75/150, moving to 100/200 in a couple of mins. I've been at this table for the last 30 mins. Main villian (SB) has been at the table since I arrived, I don't recall him even seeing a flop in this time.

UTG+1 is the table calling station, I'm really unconcerned about their cold call on the flop. He was also at the table when I arrived, and he's been in pretty much every hand since. He's amassed a stack because numerous people have bluffed off their entire stacks to him, and he's called them down with underpairs, 2nd pair and even on one occassion Ace high.

I really have no idea what kind of hand range to put the SB on. Any suggestions? Am I committed here, regardless? If I fold, I'll have 14.5 big blinds even after the limits go up.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG+1 (t11380)
MP1 (t1870)
MP2 (t16458)
MP3 (t5640)
CO (t5420)
Button (t7455)
SB (t5875)
Hero (t4205)
UTG (t2010)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t150, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (t450) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t300</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1200</font>, UTG+1 calls t1200, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t5725</font>, Hero...?

[sekrah]

Yikes, Very Tough One..

I say fold live to fight another day.. I think at best it's a chop.. But I think it's very likely he has 7-10 or a small set of 6's..

If he is as you say.. I don't see him limping into the pot with 10-10 or bigger and I don't see him pushing all in with a flush draw.

[People_Mover]

I think I dump that too. He could have Ah7h which gives him tons of outs to crush you, but still a set of 6s is more likely

[sirtemple]

I'd hate to fold top two, but if he is as tight as you say, you have no choice. I would think he has 5 7 for a straight.

[Sam T.]

I agree that this is a fold, though I wouldn't discount UTG+1s call of your raise so lightly. In a limped pot, this is a drawlicious board, and you could easily be up against a made hand, a strong draw, or both. If we put the loose player on a couple of hearts, and the rock on a set, you take this down less than 20% of the time:

Holdem Hi: 903 enumerated boards containing 9d 8h 6h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 8s 156 17.28 729 80.73 18 1.99 0.179
Ah 7h 381 42.19 504 55.81 18 1.99 0.429
6s 6c 348 38.54 537 59.47 18 1.99 0.392

If we're more optimistic, and put them both on draws you can get up to 50%, which would be nice, but given your reads, unlikely.

Sam

[chumsferd]

Good point. I didn't mean to be quite so flippant about UTG+1s presence in the pot. I was just trying to de-emphasise his role in the hand. Usually someone cold calling a bet and a raise is holding something pretty strong, and that could greatly influence the repsonses I got. Given this guys track record, though, whilst he could well have A7/images/graemlins/heart.gif I wouldn't consider that too much more likely than AT/images/graemlins/club.gif. Any money going in against him with top two pair represents value, I think.

I do take your point though. Even a complete donk calling station is going to own some pot equity here.