NFL Pro Bowl

[ronzoni]

Need money,anyone please post WINNER...HELP!!!

[Michael Davis]

If you're betting on the Pro Bowl, you should be used to needing money.

[scalf]

/forums/images/icons/grin.gif how about the under?...lol..gl /forums/images/icons/grin.gif /forums/images/icons/club.gif

[Porcupine]

I don't have any records in front of me to support this(anyone?), but it seems to me that the dog wins outright as often as the favorite in football all-star games (college and pro). My theory is that the games are pretty much toss ups, so playing the dog gives you points in a pick'em game.

That being said, I agree with Michael Davis, it may be best to leave these games alone.

[Wildbill]

Play the over.

This one is courtesy of a buddy of mine from a couple years ago. He says that the key is to think of how defenses win these days. Its all about pressure, whether its zone blitzes or regular blitzes. Well Tampa doesn't need to, but most teams do. These things are not allowed in the Pro Bowl so the strengths of the defenses are basically taken away. Even though a great offense takes more than a week to put together, these top players get where they are because they run precise patterns that every QB uses in his playbook. So don't bet the bank on it, but play the over. Last year I remember playing it and then saw that the two teams scored like 28 points in the first 10 minutes of the game. Lets hope for more of the same.

[Raken]

Pro Bowl "Over" is the right call, Wildbill.

The reason is "Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships." The NFL wants a full stadium. The NFL wants a big TV audience. That's why it's permanently in Hawaii. That's why no blitz. The game was not selling out in Miami and NO and Dallas. It sells out in the 50k stadium there.

Also, the officiating is different. In the playoffs, the DB's are allowed to mug the receivers. Not so in the Pro Bowl. Everyone wants big numbers; the fans, the viewers, the NFL.

Lastly, intensity favors the defense. The playoffs were intense. The Pro Bowl is 'fun in the sun, run and gun, let's play pitch and catch.'

Here are the average scores in five year increments:

71-75 38
76-80 38
81-85 36
86-90 35
--------
91-95 39
96-00 50
01-02 62

You can see the dramatic increase in the last 12 years.
In the last 12 years, only 1 game in the 20's.
In the first 12 years, 6 games in the 20's.

In the last 6 years only one game has gone under 49 points. The current o/u is 46. Think NBA All-Star game. The o/u is what, 260 or so?

Here's a link to the raw numbers:

http://www.nfl.com/probowl/2002/alltimeresults.html

Raken

[Smackdab]

Normally I wouldn't bet an all-star game but I like the data you provided Raken. Gonna put 1/2 unit on it just to make it interesting. Thanks for the info.

[Raken]

Smack:
I went with: 1st half Over 22 -120.

I figure if the game is going over the 46 then at least one half has to go over 23 points. If I get the 23 in the first half, great. If I don't, I can at least get a read on how the game is being played and officiated. Then I have the option of playing for a push or doing a martingale in the second half.

I agree with your opinion on betting all-star games. I don't like to bet even bowl games. I do keep my eyes open for opportunities though and if I see something like this, I will make a small bet. When I read that you're putting only a half unit on the game, I felt good. It told me there are some guys on this board who know how to bet. That's the kind of board I've been looking for.

Raken

[ronzoni]

Thanks for a WINNER OVER but I put all my money on 3 teams parlay LOSER 2 out of 3 /forums/images/icons/mad.gif ,now I need next week NBA ALL STAR WINNER,anyone HELP!!!!!!

[Wildbill]

Here in Vegas we always tell the joke:
One day a guy is sitting in a sports book and a man in a dark hat and coat walks by. He says, "you look down and out kid, I will do you a favor. I know some people, don't ask me who, but they told me a game is guaranteed to cover. I just put up 30 dimes on the game, but since I already have my number I figure I will give you the winner. It will still cover at the new number." Guy says to him, "great, thanks buddy. But what is another winner for my parlay. I am really stuck!"

You can only do so much.

As for the NBA game, forget it. The game has a lot of variation year-to-year as far as the total score, some years its over 270, some it ends up around 230. I had the West a few years back when it looked like a mismatch, the game in Washington. They were winning by about 20 going to the 4th and I laid 3.5. Wouldn't you know it, they lose the game outright as the East gets inspired being the clear underdog. Picking a side in any of the all-star games is tough, totals are a lot wiser move, but NBA is toughest to gauge I think. Teams play some defense late if the game is close, but it becomes an end to end show if its a blowout. Some years a couple of players are into it and make it a real show. Others no one seems that motivated so the ball is spread around and the offenses take longer to score. In any event its crazy to get too involved in these things. Far too many variables are out there and they all change depending on score.

One thing I can say is forget about betting on the game for action, that is insanity. I think almost all of us know that unless you are putting your pocket change on it. Today I watched most of the NHL game with no money on it and then went out and did things while I had action on the NFL. Get in the habit of watching sports for fun and personal rooting interest, regardless of what action you have on it. I know a lot of people feel they get a lot out of watching games for future bets, but I feel its rather overrated. I don't think too many people watch a game like a scout and get too worked up in their personal interest to really get much out of it. I just watch games as a fan and leave the betting as if it were a completely different world. For all the people looking to get better its advice I give with high importance. Your results will get much better when you separate the two. If you want cheap excitement and gambling rush go play craps or bet on a horse/dog race. If you want to win money bet the best games on the board with no regard to what you will watch. If you need to have a wager on the game to get into it, I would just advise you to do something else than watch the game.

[scalf]

/forums/images/icons/smile.gif wb, outstanding points..gr8 analysis of pro bowl total...just like betting preseason..knowing different facts, and analyzing appropriately can make these wagers highly profitable, yet seem to defy "normal" regular season handicapping..of course i feel the holy grail of handicapping is understanding which key matchups or factors will be most significant in tonite's game

[scalf]

/forums/images/icons/smirk.gif with funny money, ya might want to put a few dollars on rmbs....could be some selling after huge move, but....lol...just buy a 100 shares..funny money...lol...gl /forums/images/icons/cool.gif /forums/images/icons/grin.gif /forums/images/icons/spade.gif

[Wildbill]

I will back it up 200 shares if you tell me the alignment of the moon and Mars is helpful /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif