The Braves

[RacersEdge]

You gotta give this team their due - again. They were left for dead a couple weeks ago when Chipper went down - and they are still missing major players due to injuries. But the just took their 5th straight tonight roughing up Dontrelle Willis for 11 hits with a line-up of guys that would still be in AAA if not for injuries.

Whatever the Cox/Schurholz magic is, it's still working.

[plaster8]

I'm not expecting my (former) Expos to make this nice run last, but I really don't want Atlanta to be the team that overtakes them.

That said, it is impressive how Atlanta ALWAYS makes a run.

[jakethebake]

Actually i think it was much more a case of the Marlins stinking it up again. Generally Willis is the only bright spot, but he was due for a bad outing.

[Jack of Arcades]

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Actually i think it was much more a case of the Marlins stinking it up again. Generally Willis is the only bright spot, but he was due for a bad outing.

[/ QUOTE ]

"Due"?

Are you sure you're a poker player?

[RacersEdge]

It really bugs me to see Washington up there when they have scored less runs than they have allowed. By rights, the Braves should not only be in first, but have a 2-3 game lead.

And don't get me started on the marlins. If not for the lame interleague schedule handing them 6 wins against the Drays, they'd be in serious trouble.

[jakethebake]

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Actually i think it was much more a case of the Marlins stinking it up again. Generally Willis is the only bright spot, but he was due for a bad outing.

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"Due"?

Are you sure you're a poker player?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pitching ain't random.

[RacersEdge]

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Actually i think it was much more a case of the Marlins stinking it up again. Generally Willis is the only bright spot, but he was due for a bad outing.

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"Due"?

Are you sure you're a poker player?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pitching ain't random.

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So you're saying you can predict when a pitcher will have a bad game based on how many good outings he has had coming into that game?

[MoreWineII]

They're amazing. They're roster never wows you, but somehow they always seem to get it done.

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Actually i think it was much more a case of the Marlins stinking it up again. Generally Willis is the only bright spot, but he was due for a bad outing.

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"Due"?

Are you sure you're a poker player?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pitching ain't random.

[/ QUOTE ]

He was "due" in the sense that it's tough to beat the same team twice in the span of a week or two. Yesterday was the second look the Braves were having at him in a couple of weeks. Same thing with Tejeda against the Mets last night, and similar result.

[Jack of Arcades]

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Actually i think it was much more a case of the Marlins stinking it up again. Generally Willis is the only bright spot, but he was due for a bad outing.

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"Due"?

Are you sure you're a poker player?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pitching ain't random.

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You'd be surprised how similar poker and baseball statistics are.

[mrbaseball]

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Yesterday was the second look the Braves were having at him in a couple of weeks. Same thing with Tejeda against the Mets last night, and similar result

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This is convoluted logic since the "seeing twice" is the same for both sides (Sosa, Zambrano). Just because you have seen a guy recently doesn't mean you will now hit him better (or worse). Why should Sosa or Zambrano suddenly become more effective while Willis and Tejada suddenly become less effective? Actually Tejada wasn't bad but he doesn't have the strength to get deep into a game yet and the Phillie bullpen blows.

But yeah Willis was due for a beat since even the best of the best have down days and off days.

[wdcbooks]

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It really bugs me to see Washington up there when they have scored less runs than they have allowed. By rights, the Braves should not only be in first, but have a 2-3 game lead.

And don't get me started on the marlins. If not for the lame interleague schedule handing them 6 wins against the Drays, they'd be in serious trouble.

[/ QUOTE ]

I seem to recall the Nats sweeping the last series they had against the Braves. I am not sure they can continue this way, but they are a legit team. They have a true ace in Livan Hernandez and Cordero is amazing.

They may not have outscored their opposition by much, but a lot of that comes from the work Cordero, Majewski and Ayala have done keeping small leads. The Braves are more talented, but the Nats have some strenghts that are underappreciated.

I will be at the game tonight against Pittsburgh with Patterson on the mound. I would be perfectly happy with another 2-1 like last night. Doesn't do much for their run totals, but 'tis a win nonetheless.

[Jack of Arcades]

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They may not have outscored their opposition by much, but a lot of that comes from the work Cordero, Majewski and Ayala have done keeping small leads. The Braves are more talented, but the Nats have some strenghts that are underappreciated.

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Washington is 19-7 in one run games. This is unsustainable.

[jakethebake]

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Actually i think it was much more a case of the Marlins stinking it up again. Generally Willis is the only bright spot, but he was due for a bad outing.

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"Due"? Are you sure you're a poker player?

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Pitching ain't random.

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You'd be surprised how similar poker and baseball statistics are.

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Perhaps. I wouldn't really know. You obviously have done a lot more work with baseball stats than most of us here. But I notice you didn't really debate my statement. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[OldYoda]

Cox and Schuerholz certainly deserve all the accolades that are heaped on them but the true secret of the Braves long run is Leo Mazzone. Year after year he takes what they give him and crafts it into a fine pitching staff.

[Jack of Arcades]

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Actually i think it was much more a case of the Marlins stinking it up again. Generally Willis is the only bright spot, but he was due for a bad outing.

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"Due"? Are you sure you're a poker player?

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Pitching ain't random.

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You'd be surprised how similar poker and baseball statistics are.

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Perhaps. I wouldn't really know. You obviously have done a lot more work with baseball stats than most of us here. But I notice you didn't really debate my statement. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

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Well, what I'm saying is this.

If pitching WERE random, and Dontrelle is, say, we'll be generous - a true 2.75 ERA pitcher - he's going to have outings like these just due to the nature of the game.

Obviously it's not, but it's a lot more than you think. Luck/randomness plays a huge role in short term results of baseball... but this isn't a really popular theory with traditionalists.

[jakethebake]

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If pitching WERE random...

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But...
Go on. You can say it. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

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...he's going to have outings like these just due to the nature of the game.

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This was my point.

[Jack of Arcades]

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If pitching WERE random...

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But...
Go on. You can say it. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

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...he's going to have outings like these just due to the nature of the game.

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This was my point.

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But your concept of "due" is extremely flawed. He's not more likely to have a bad outing just because he's racked up good outings previously.

[jakethebake]

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But your concept of "due" is extremely flawed. He's not more likely to have a bad outing just because he's racked up good outings previously.

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Yea. He is. Humans are not cards. The odds are not the same every hand. People don't just shuffle and reset themselves. Past performance does influence future performance. People wear down mentally and physically. Pressure builds, etc., etc., etc.

The fact "he's going to have outings like these" doesn't just happen. It's not only the nature of the game. It's also human nature.

[plaster8]

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They may not have outscored their opposition by much, but a lot of that comes from the work Cordero, Majewski and Ayala have done keeping small leads. The Braves are more talented, but the Nats have some strenghts that are underappreciated.

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Washington is 19-7 in one run games. This is unsustainable.

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I agree with you. But I hope you're wrong. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Jack of Arcades]

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But your concept of "due" is extremely flawed. He's not more likely to have a bad outing just because he's racked up good outings previously.

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Yea. He is. Humans are not cards. The odds are not the same every hand. People don't just shuffle and reset themselves. Past performance does influence future performance. People wear down mentally and physically. Pressure builds, etc., etc., etc.

The fact "he's going to have outings like these" doesn't just happen. It's not only the nature of the game. It's also human nature.

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Well, I'm sorry, but 134 years of major league history disagrees.

[jakethebake]

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Well, I'm sorry, but 134 years of major league history disagrees.

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Well o.k. You're right then. Human performance is random.

[Jack of Arcades]

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Well, I'm sorry, but 134 years of major league history disagrees.

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Well o.k. You're right then. Human performance is random.

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Which I never said.

Dontrelle didn't do terribly last night. His Ks were slightly down, he allowed a homer - but, for the most part, the results came from balls finding holes, etc, stuff that's really out of the pitcher's control.

If he'd walked four, struck out no one, and had a really bad outing it'd be a different story. But there wasn't much different about this Dontrelle than the Dontrelle that has been around all season, except the results.

[jakethebake]

We can argue this forever. And I know you will argue it forever. You said it's the nature of the game that pitchers have occasional bad outings. I agree. What you don't agree with is that the longer a pitcher goes w/o a bad outing, the more likely he's going to have one soon. In other words, he's due. That's fine. We can disagree.

[Jack of Arcades]

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We can argue this forever. And I know you will argue it forever. You said it's the nature of the game that pitchers have occasional bad outings. I agree. What you don't agree with is that the longer a pitcher goes w/o a bad outing, the more likely he's going to have one soon. In other words, he's due. That's fine. We can disagree.

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And all I'm saying is the statistical evidence disagrees with this.

[sublime]

What you don't agree with is that the longer a pitcher goes w/o a bad outing, the more likely he's going to have one soon.

false. its the same as saying you are 'due' for a flush draw to hit.

[jakethebake]

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What you don't agree with is that the longer a pitcher goes w/o a bad outing, the more likely he's going to have one soon.

false. its the same as saying you are 'due' for a flush draw to hit.

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cards are random. human performance isn't. that's my argument. but i'm tired of the debate. it's useless.

[RacersEdge]

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What you don't agree with is that the longer a pitcher goes w/o a bad outing, the more likely he's going to have one soon.

false. its the same as saying you are 'due' for a flush draw to hit.

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cards are random. human performance isn't. that's my argument. but i'm tired of the debate. it's useless.

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If this is true, you should be able to make a lot of money bettng on baseball.

[jakethebake]

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If this is true, you should be able to make a lot of money bettng on baseball.

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No. Just because I belive something isn't random doesn't mean I think I know enough to make money at it. In terms of something being "due", the stock market was "due" for a correction in 1998, but I sure as hell wasn't going to short the damn thing. And, yea, I know pitching and market valuation aren't comparable. That's not what I'm comparing.

[RacersEdge]

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If this is true, you should be able to make a lot of money bettng on baseball.

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No. Just because I belive something isn't random doesn't mean I think I know enough to make money at it. In terms of something being "due", the stock market was "due" for a correction in 1998, but I sure as hell wasn't going to short the damn thing. And, yea, I know pitching and market valuation aren't comparable. That's not what I'm comparing.

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Nobody knows anything for sure, but it's all about EV. If you think a pitcher becomes "due" for a bad game after , say 4 good games in a row, then you should bet against him whenever he has 4 good games in a row. He will be overvalued in the betting line (if you are right) and you will make money in the long run.

[jakethebake]

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Nobody knows anything for sure, but it's all about EV. If you think a pitcher becomes "due" for a bad game after , say 4 good games in a row, then you should bet against him whenever he has 4 good games in a row. He will be overvalued in the betting line (if you are right) and you will make money in the long run.

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You missed my whole point.

[RacersEdge]

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Nobody knows anything for sure, but it's all about EV. If you think a pitcher becomes "due" for a bad game after , say 4 good games in a row, then you should bet against him whenever he has 4 good games in a row. He will be overvalued in the betting line (if you are right) and you will make money in the long run.

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You missed my whole point.

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Non-random = some predictability = $$$

[sublime]

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If this is true, you should be able to make a lot of money bettng on baseball.

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No. Just because I belive something isn't random doesn't mean I think I know enough to make money at it. In terms of something being "due", the stock market was "due" for a correction in 1998, but I sure as hell wasn't going to short the damn thing. And, yea, I know pitching and market valuation aren't comparable. That's not what I'm comparing.

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Nobody knows anything for sure, but it's all about EV. If you think a pitcher becomes "due" for a bad game after, say 4 good games in a row, then you should bet against him whenever he has 4 good games in a row. He will be overvalued in the betting line (if you are right) and you will make money in the long run.

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i bet sports on a serious level and people who use temrs like 'due' are almost always long term losers. nobody is ever 'due' for anything. for example:

if a pitcher is expected to win against a certain subset of teams 65% of the time and loses four in a row to this set of teams, in game 5 he is still expected to win THAT game 65% of the time (assuming health etc are all equal). people who claim otherwise in any form are wrong.

[jakethebake]

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Non-random = some predictability = $$$

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as i said, you missed my point.

[jakethebake]

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i bet sports on a serious level and people who use temrs like 'due' are almost always long term losers. nobody is ever 'due' for anything. for example:

if a pitcher is expected to win against a certain subset of teams 65% of the time and loses four in a row to this set of teams, in game 5 he is still expected to win THAT game 65% of the time (assuming health etc are all equal). people who claim otherwise in any form are wrong.

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this is not even remotely similar to what i said.

[Jack of Arcades]

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i bet sports on a serious level and people who use temrs like 'due' are almost always long term losers. nobody is ever 'due' for anything. for example:

if a pitcher is expected to win against a certain subset of teams 65% of the time and loses four in a row to this set of teams, in game 5 he is still expected to win THAT game 65% of the time (assuming health etc are all equal). people who claim otherwise in any form are wrong.

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this is not even remotely similar to what i said.

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Then clarify, because it looks pretty damned close to me.

[sublime]

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i bet sports on a serious level and people who use temrs like 'due' are almost always long term losers. nobody is ever 'due' for anything. for example:

if a pitcher is expected to win against a certain subset of teams 65% of the time and loses four in a row to this set of teams, in game 5 he is still expected to win THAT game 65% of the time (assuming health etc are all equal). people who claim otherwise in any form are wrong.

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this is not even remotely similar to what i said.

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then i totally misunderstood what you said /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Benholio]

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What you don't agree with is that the longer a pitcher goes w/o a bad outing, the more likely he's going to have one soon.

false. its the same as saying you are 'due' for a flush draw to hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

cards are random. human performance isn't. that's my argument. but i'm tired of the debate. it's useless.

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I understand what you are trying to say Jake, and I think that for some players, it could be true. Some players are probably more likely to perform well when they are 'running good', some are more likely to choke, and some are not affected at all. It all depends on the psychology of the player involved.

[Jack of Arcades]

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i bet sports on a serious level and people who use temrs like 'due' are almost always long term losers. nobody is ever 'due' for anything. for example:

if a pitcher is expected to win against a certain subset of teams 65% of the time and loses four in a row to this set of teams, in game 5 he is still expected to win THAT game 65% of the time (assuming health etc are all equal). people who claim otherwise in any form are wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is not even remotely similar to what i said.

[/ QUOTE ]

If a player is a true .300 hitter, and, halfway through the season, they've hit .280. What is the likelist batting average after the season for this hitter?