*How Long 'Til the Party Ends?* (Could Be Depressing)

[Potatoes]

Hey - I've been playing PP for about a year, but I've just been introduced to 2+2. I've been amazed at the brilliance and helpfulness of the members here. Really, it's awesome, and I wish I wish I wish I'd seen checked this place out sooner.

Before I drop everything and engage online poker full-time, I want to ask you all: <b>How much longer can this last?</b>

I've been wondering this for a while. It seems like poker-- the WSOP, WPT, all this crap--has been a huge trend in America. Huge. But, like all great things, it'll have to come to an end, eventually. It's gotta eventually fall out of the public eye, start getting less and less TV coverage, and then the stupid fish will filter themselves out of our SNG tables. The only people left will be true poker enthusiasts, who are probably decent at the game.

Do you guys think there's another year or two left of 20-60k people being logged onto Party at all times? What's the estimated shelf-life here?

I understand that this is hard to project, but this really matters as I make my decision.

Thanks for your input,
- <font color="blue"> </font> J Chap-

[The Don]

How long will cocaine last? Forever. Because it is addictive. The same is the case with gambling.

Although I do agree... poker will probably die down within the next 5 years. It will definitely be more popular than it was previous to the boom however.

[pergesu]

I dunno, what if it turns into something like golf, and just keeps getting bigger?

They still show darts and ice curling on TV. I gotta imagine more people would tune into poker, where there are millions of dollars on the line with every bluff!

[tshort]

Why do people play:

the lottery?
slot machines?
blackjack (w/o counting)?
roulette?

These are all games people are guaranteed to lose at given enough time and plays, yet they still play. I assume it will be the same thing with poker, but possibly more addictive for losers.

[The Don]

Good Point.

Nobody admits they are a losing player in poker. That keeps people coming back.

[Moonsugar]

73 days

[pergesu]

Haha, my buddy and I spent $300 on scratch tickets the other day. It was fun [censored], definitely worth it. Somethin everyone should try once.

[tminus]

ive done extensive research on this topic and the verdict is: lawn darts...it's having a HUGE resurgence right now...

[zipppy]

Potatoes-Since you don't really discuss STTs at all, this may be a better discussion in a different forum, perhaps the Internet forum? Very important topic to think about though.

Do you play STTs? Perhaps one discussion that is relevant specifically to this forum is the idea of STT games drying up as the boom dies down. Does anyone predict that this particular form of holdem will suffer the affects of the popularity dying out more than other forms?

[flyingmoose]

[ QUOTE ]
Potatoes-Since you don't really discuss STTs at all, this may be a better discussion in a different forum, perhaps the Internet forum? Very important topic to think about though.

Do you play STTs? Perhaps one discussion that is relevant specifically to this forum is the idea of STT games drying up as the boom dies down. Does anyone predict that this particular form of holdem will suffer the affects of the popularity dying out more than other forms?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope -- if anything, I see it getting bigger. No other form of poker comes close to final table play, which is most of what's on TV. The better question is, when will Partypoker lose its spot as the premier poker room, and we'll have to learn to do that postflop thing I keep hearing about.

[treeofwisdom7]

i think poker will be like football, golf, and carracing. it wont die but fall a little. instead of party having 50k it will have 30k at busy times. but i think poker has a chance to grow more. the more celebs that get involved with poker the more fame it will get. poker just needs one more move and it could reboom again.


dont worry about pokers death. by the time it dies you will be a talented pro and make money on all the addicts

[bmxreed36]

I think that after so much no-limit hold'em tournaments on TV everyday, some people will eventually start to get tired of watching it. That's when they'll start mixing in some 7-card stud, pot-limit Omaha, etc and a non-holdem game will be the next craze. Just an idea.

[ewing55]

[ QUOTE ]
learn to do that postflop thing I keep hearing about.

[/ QUOTE ]

1) What's PostFlop??? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

2) A point that has not been brought up is the expansion of the internet (and access to internet poker.) I think that alone will increase the amount of people playing on-line for a long, long time. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif /images/graemlins/laugh.gif /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

--------------Jeff

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
I dunno, what if it turns into something like golf, and just keeps getting bigger?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nothing can "keep getting bigger" indefinitely, at least not at a faster rate than the population. In some ways it's like a big Ponzi scheme (http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Ponzi_scheme). However, unlike a Ponzi scheme, in this case those who rise to the top are doing so through their ability and desire to learn more than the competition.

At any rate, there were poker pros before the boom and there will be when this madness dies down. The questions I would ask myself is, am I willing to move to be near a B&amp;M cardroom and play cash games if that should become necessary? (I love B&amp;M poker so I would love this, but the OP needs to ask the same questions.) And if it doesn't work out, am I able to maintain enough skills that I can go back in the job market? (Volunteering in something you enjoy one day a week while you're playing couldn't hurt; you might need the references down the road.) I like what Ed Miller says about going pro at http://www.notedpokerauthority.com .

I think poker, including online SnGs, will be profitable for the forseeable future. But it can't keep growing at this rate because nothing (golf included) ever does.

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
Potatoes-Since you don't really discuss STTs at all, this may be a better discussion in a different forum, perhaps the Internet forum? Very important topic to think about though.

[/ QUOTE ]

For some reason the Psychology forum is full of "going pro" posts. Not sure what it has to do with psych., but at least you can find like-minded people there.
[ QUOTE ]
Do you play STTs? Perhaps one discussion that is relevant specifically to this forum is the idea of STT games drying up as the boom dies down. Does anyone predict that this particular form of holdem will suffer the affects of the popularity dying out more than other forms?

[/ QUOTE ]

One thing to keep in mind is, if the Statists now running our federal government were to succeed in complicating Internet poker, we'd have to either leave the country move to the B&amp;M world. I don't think that's all that likely but that's why I mentioned B&amp;M in my previous post. Of course SnGs are the kind of poker that LEAST translates into that context, although I think now the format's well-enough established that B&amp;M rooms would meet that demand, and some are attempting (clumsily) to do now.

[Indiana]

more than 1/2 of the US still is without a CPU and internet access. In 5 years, I expect twice the number of players online.

Indy

[cow_phunk]

[ QUOTE ]
73 days

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm in the 73 days camp as well.

[WackityWhiz]

I think party will eclipse 100k players online by next summer. You gotta think that 10k new players (at least) will be signing up in August when they hear about online poker from their dorm buddies.

That's how I started in 2003 /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Lady Dont Tekno]

Party is getting a lot of publicity right now with their stock going public so I think that's going to contribute to the boom. I think Party is here to stay, however I am worried about the monopolization of internet gambling.

LDT

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
Haha, my buddy and I spent $300 on scratch tickets the other day. It was fun [censored], definitely worth it. Somethin everyone should try once.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can think of much more fun things to do with $300.

[benfranklin]

[ QUOTE ]

Before I drop everything and engage online poker full-time, I want to ask you all: How much longer can this last?



[/ QUOTE ]

As has been pointed out, this question would be better asked in the Internet Forum. Where it is asked about once every 2-3 weeks.

For your own benefit, and as a courtesy to others, it is best to check out the various forums and to scroll through old threads before asking general questions that have surely occured to others in the past.

[Big Limpin']

Emerging markets.
The # of american/euro players will eventually max out (sonner rather than later), but given time, theres a good chance that poker takes off in other places.

I know Asians love to gambooooll...but poker is not played much across the Pacific. But, in say 5 years, who knows?

China has 1 billion people. Gambooling is a part of the culture. If poker ever takes off there....the sky's the limit.

[Mr_J]

Poker isn't a trend, it's gambling. Gambling doesn't go out of fashion.

As far as TV coverage, that's just advertising. As online poker becomes more known TV coverage will become less important.

"Do you guys think there's another year or two left of 20-60k people being logged onto Party at all times?"

Party might fall apart but the numbers for online players will grow.

"The only people left will be true poker enthusiasts, who are probably decent at the game."

Lol. You just don't get it, poker is gambling. That's like saying BJ only attracts card counters. If you can bet on it, people will come.

[Bluff Daddy]

what about all these young kids playing? when theyre old enough they are going to play online

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
For your own benefit, and as a courtesy to others, it is best to check out the various forums and to scroll through old threads before asking general questions that have surely occured to others in the past.

[/ QUOTE ]

You'll be here all year checking out forums if you check every one where a question could have already been asked. As I mentioned above, I have no idea why poker-as-career is related to psychology, but it comes up there all the time. B&amp;M players might ask the same question in B&amp;M. Stud players might ask it in stud. Beginning players might ask it in Beginners (though one hopes they're not planning to go pro just yet!). Etc. etc.

Not to mention that the search is problematic, but I'll save that for another time....

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
Poker isn't a trend, it's gambling. Gambling doesn't go out of fashion.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get this non sequitur. Why are trends and gambling mutually exclusive? If you think the fact that poker is gambling means it's not riding a huge bubble, I would have to question that judgment.


[ QUOTE ]
Lol. You just don't get it, poker is gambling. That's like saying BJ only attracts card counters. If you can bet on it, people will come.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a good point. We have to look at the B&amp;M world for any real historical perspective, but well-off fish have been filling the LA and LV cardrooms for decades. It's should be no secret that the way they play poker's -EV, and yet they keep coming. Moreover, millions line up to drop money in slots. So yes, I agree that there will always be people willing to take the worst of it in exchange for fun and excitement.

The question is if there will be as many as in 2005, and I see no reason to assume that there will be. However, poker will still be profitable for the skilled player, I would imagine.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
The question is if there will be as many as in 2005, and I see no reason to assume that there will be. However, poker will still be profitable for the skilled player, I would imagine.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's quite the bold statement. You're suggesting that poker will diminish in the near term? Or that 2005 is the peak?

Look, this issue comes down to pure economics. As long as the US (or global) economy continues to hum (which is arguable) along at a decent pace, and as long as Americans still have money to blow, this poker thing ain't going anywhere. What would hurt poker more than anything else is a major recession. As long as the fish still have jobs to help fund the poker machine, there's no issues.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
Look, this issue comes down to pure economics. As long as the US (or global) economy continues to hum (which is arguable) along at a decent pace, and as long as Americans still have money to blow, this poker thing ain't going anywhere. What would hurt poker more than anything else is a major recession. As long as the fish still have jobs to help fund the poker machine, there's no issues.

[/ QUOTE ]

actually, i have read several studies that say that during a recesion, cigarettes, alcohol and gambling are three industries that flourish.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

Look, this issue comes down to pure economics. As long as the US (or global) economy continues to hum (which is arguable) along at a decent pace, and as long as Americans still have money to blow, this poker thing ain't going anywhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is an equally unfounded assertion. Suppose the televised events start experiencing serious ratings drops and televised poker gets scaled way back. At that point, you probably lose a major source of new players that makes up for the substantial sink of people essentially busting out.

It's true that gambling as a general phenomenon is not likely to go anywhere. But I don't think that means that poker itself will enjoy the same popularity. My impression is that if you went back about 10 years, casino poker was a pretty small-scale enterprise and poker rooms were frequently being shut down because they weren't a great use of casino floor space. Times have changed greatly since then. Who's to say they can't change again?

[Potatoes]

Sorry to have posted this topic in this forum - it's true that the subject itself would have fit more easily into one of the many other forums.

That said, this is the forum I plan to participate in (I've made some posts under a different name, J Chap). To be honest, I did want the specific perspective of the fellow SNGers, because this is the subset of the online gambling population that is most relevant to me right now. I'm glad the conversation took a brief turn in that direction - the specific future of the SNG-style online poker.

As a side-note, my half-brother, who works in a casino, says he constantly hears the guy on the PA announcing things like, "does anybody wanna come play poker? We've got a bunch of open seats here in the poker room." Obviously, this is a reflection of the increased space and resources casinos are allocating to poker. Let's just hope that this particular casino added way too many tables, and that's the reason they're not filling up right now.

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The question is if there will be as many as in 2005, and I see no reason to assume that there will be. However, poker will still be profitable for the skilled player, I would imagine.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's quite the bold statement. You're suggesting that poker will diminish in the near term? Or that 2005 is the peak?

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I was trying to make anything but a bold statement. If anything I'm guilty of using weasel words (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weasel_words) to avoid a concrete opinion on whether the boom has peaked or not.

But being a betting man, I would say.... if you pushed me, I'd say we're near the peak but not yet there. In pop-culture terms poker is probably there in every sense. But I think there will be plenty people coming into the system for 12-18 months.

So there you go. Party will have highest traffic in... I like the college point, let's say September of '05, then will lose 5% by 1/1/2007 and 20% by 2010. But there will still be enough fish that some people make a living and rather more ex-pros end up retaining it as a rewarding hobby. Game selection only gets more and more important. And some online pros move to the B&amp;M world, where there seems to always be another sucker.

Happy now? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Look, this issue comes down to pure economics. As long as the US (or global) economy continues to hum (which is arguable) along at a decent pace, and as long as Americans still have money to blow, this poker thing ain't going anywhere. What would hurt poker more than anything else is a major recession. As long as the fish still have jobs to help fund the poker machine, there's no issues.

[/ QUOTE ]

actually, i have read several studies that say that during a recesion, cigarettes, alcohol and gambling are three industries that flourish.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well it was true in the 70s, don't know about the 30s. At least with regard to gambling...

[augie00]

People who recently started playing poker seem to think that the damn game DIDN'T EVEN EXIST befor Chris Moneymaker won the WSOP. For Christ's sake, they've been playing poker for 100 years now. You will always be able to find a game online until it becomes illegal. These posts are getting old and so is everyone who says that in two years poker will be impossible to beat. You are all wrong and I am right.

[yoadrians]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that after so much no-limit hold'em tournaments on TV everyday, some people will eventually start to get tired of watching it. That's when they'll start mixing in some 7-card stud, pot-limit Omaha, etc and a non-holdem game will be the next craze. Just an idea.

[/ QUOTE ]

That sounds a little bit like what ESPN does during their WSOP coverage.

[runner4life7]

As a young kid (20) I have to agree, my friends all want to play online because they think they can win, and they are not good at all. But everyone I talk to "knows" someone who made a few grand or whatever playing and that gets them to waste a few hundred. Even my 15 year old bro wants to play I think Ill have to get him started soon. Become a younger raptor if he starts that young.

[ChuckNorris]

I dunno. I just hope it lasts long enough for me to make enough money to buy a cabin in the woods and all Tom Brown's books before the oil crash. And I'm not entirely sure that it will /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[TM1212]

[ QUOTE ]
Hey - I've been playing PP for about a year, but I've just been introduced to 2+2. I've been amazed at the brilliance and helpfulness of the members here. Really, it's awesome, and I wish I wish I wish I'd seen checked this place out sooner.

Before I drop everything and engage online poker full-time, I want to ask you all: &lt;b&gt;How much longer can this last?&lt;/b&gt;

I've been wondering this for a while. It seems like poker-- the WSOP, WPT, all this crap--has been a huge trend in America. Huge. But, like all great things, it'll have to come to an end, eventually. It's gotta eventually fall out of the public eye, start getting less and less TV coverage, and then the stupid fish will filter themselves out of our SNG tables. The only people left will be true poker enthusiasts, who are probably decent at the game.

Do you guys think there's another year or two left of 20-60k people being logged onto Party at all times? What's the estimated shelf-life here?

I understand that this is hard to project, but this really matters as I make my decision.

Thanks for your input,
- <font color="blue"> </font> J Chap-

[/ QUOTE ]

Last time I check poker was very beatable before the explosion and will continue to be after it ends. This is like asking when will people stop going to the casino's and playing games were they are guaranteed to lose over the long term. Answer never, there will be fluctuations, but they will always come back.

[jon462]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Haha, my buddy and I spent $300 on scratch tickets the other day. It was fun [censored], definitely worth it. Somethin everyone should try once.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can think of much more fun things to do with $300.

[/ QUOTE ]

???? what, hookers?

[jon462]

[ QUOTE ]
i think poker will be like football, golf, and carracing. it wont die but fall a little. instead of party having 50k it will have 30k at busy times. but i think poker has a chance to grow more. the more celebs that get involved with poker the more fame it will get. poker just needs one more move and it could reboom again.


dont worry about pokers death. by the time it dies you will be a talented pro and make money on all the addicts

[/ QUOTE ]

ok.. I hafta know.. wtf is carracing?

[Big Limpin']

[ QUOTE ]

ok.. I hafta know.. wtf is carracing?

[/ QUOTE ]
Sadly, i couldnt figure this one out either. (http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=carracing) Now its kinda obvious.

[treeofwisdom7]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

ok.. I hafta know.. wtf is carracing?

[/ QUOTE ]
Sadly, i couldnt figure this one out either. (http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=carracing) Now its kinda obvious.

[/ QUOTE ]

yah your right. but i really mean carracing its a very fun sport.

[Bluff Daddy]

[ QUOTE ]
As a young kid (20) I have to agree, my friends all want to play online because they think they can win, and they are not good at all. But everyone I talk to "knows" someone who made a few grand or whatever playing and that gets them to waste a few hundred. Even my 15 year old bro wants to play I think Ill have to get him started soon. Become a younger raptor if he starts that young.

[/ QUOTE ]

My 7 yr old sister is crushing the 10's right now

[Potatoes]

Think we could train monkeys to dominate the 10's? Can everybody put in like $3 and we'll start a monkey farm? I'll worry about the logistics. I know a guy.

[MeanGreenTT]

I caught the Devil Rays v Blue Jays yesterday at Tropicana Field as part of a local corporate event and as I was making my way to our box I happened to take notice of several young kids sitting in the bleachers dumping out a ziplock bag full of poker chips, setting up for a game...LOL

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
People who recently started playing poker seem to think that the damn game DIDN'T EVEN EXIST befor Chris Moneymaker won the WSOP. For Christ's sake, they've been playing poker for 100 years now. You will always be able to find a game online until it becomes illegal. These posts are getting old and so is everyone who says that in two years poker will be impossible to beat. You are all wrong and I am right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, everyone is such a pessimist! It's so absurd, I hate random pessimism without any real logic behind it. Anyone who is looking with a clear mind wolud see that poker isnt going to die in one year and that all the fish aren't going to "dissapear". How come this post is repeated every 2 weeks for the past 2 years?