PARTY POKER $1M TOURNEY....what should i have done?

[XXXNoahXXX]

Top 180 get paid...180th gets $800....190 left....Blinds are 400/800....I have enough chips for three full orbits if I fold every hand, definitely enough to get me in the money, but not enough to do any damage unless I double up at least twice. In the BB I get dealt KK and everyone folds to the button who bets enough to put me all in. I know he probably has Ax or worse and I have him dominated, but should I make this call? I'm risking a guaranteed $800 for the chance of building my stack which is only about 1/4 of the average. Does it all come down to how much the $800 means to me, or should I face the reality that I'm not taking down any big money and be happy to fold out to my free money?

[petvan]

I'm no pro, but if you're playing this to squeek into bottom money, I think you are playing way over your head. To me, this is just the spot you want to be in (ok, AA better, but still, you dominate everything else) You're going to need chips to get deep into the money, and likely won't get many better chances.

P

[hemstock]

Call. You need the chips. Plus the button might be raising with anything to steal, since most players would have thought the same... fold every hand to the money.

[TheTimeIsUp]

Yes. Easy call. You are atleast a 70% favorite, and can actually have a shot if you double up.

[XXXNoahXXX]

I won my entry ($640) by winning a smaller Multi, hopefully im not paying 640 to try and squeek by for 800, lol. So to answer the question, yes $800 is like two weeks pay for me. I knew I was a huge favorite, I called, and of course his A7 hit an A on the river and sent me packing with nothing. If I could have just taken the $640 and never played the tourney, I probably would have....

[TheTimeIsUp]

Yes. You should have known you would have got knocked out of this MTT from a bad beat. Hence, you should never play a mtt.

[THATWACOKID]

[ QUOTE ]
Hence, you should never play a mtt.

[/ QUOTE ]

Mtts are frustraddicting ...

[etizzle]

this is a bad beat post in disguise

[baronzeus]

What? No. Easy fold.

Your current EV is +800.

Lets say you double up about 70% of the time vs an ace.

30% of the time you have nothing. EV = 0

You need to be able to make $1150 whenever you win this, and I just don't think it's possible with half of an average sized stack, especially now that the tournament has been narrowed down to some of the better players.

This is especially true if $800 is important to you.

[OrcaDK]

Any money outside the final table is very close to indifferent. If you cannot nod to this, you're playing over your bankroll. Call.

[People_Mover]

[ QUOTE ]
In the BB I get dealt KK and everyone folds to the button who bets enough to put me all in. I know he probably has Ax or worse and I have him dominated, but should I make this call?

[/ QUOTE ]

easiest push ever

[transmitt]

you sure three orbits gets you there? There are probably 10 other people thinking the same thing, I go w/ KK if you hold up you should be in for sure. 1/4 average stack becomes half, the bubble bursts and if you double again, you are in at least decent shape. If the rent is due and you are broke on the other hand......

[baronzeus]

[ QUOTE ]
Any money outside the final table is very close to indifferent. If you cannot nod to this, you're playing over your bankroll. Call.

[/ QUOTE ]


Do you really think having 1/2 average stack (or less) will be enough to get him $1150?

[AliasMrJones]

[ QUOTE ]
easiest push ever

[/ QUOTE ]

[baronzeus]

I guess I'm on my own bandwagon now. I think this is a difficult decision at best, but unless I confident enough in my play that I thought winning this would give me a decent chance at higher money, I lay this down immediately.

[TxDozerMan]

If you don't feel like you can play with these players, entering this event, or even a satelite to this event was a waste of money. And to OP, If you like playing sats, but don't have the stomach/bankroll for the big buyin events, play sats on PokerStars....you can unregister and use the T$ for any event you would like.

[texman]

seriously?? if you don't want to play kk then why play at all? find any pro who won't call this bet

[AliasMrJones]

[ QUOTE ]
unless I confident enough in my play that I thought winning this would give me a decent chance at higher money, I lay this down immediately.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is your ONLY chance at higher money. Most of the time you are going to double up, ensure you make the money and give yourself some breathing room to hopefully double up again. After you get into the money, people loosen up and typically a bunch of players go out quickly. I think you've got a good chance to move up. Given your huge edge with KK, I don't see how you can pass up this opportunity.

[EarlOfSandwich]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Any money outside the final table is very close to indifferent. If you cannot nod to this, you're playing over your bankroll. Call.

[/ QUOTE ]


Do you really think having 1/2 average stack (or less) will be enough to get him $1150?

[/ QUOTE ]

On average, yes. As someone pointed out, folding every hand might not be a lock for the money. But even accepting your math, with 1/2 average stack, there's a decent chance he'll move a rung or two up the ladder ... and even more importantly, he has a chance at the big money. Most of my final table appearances have happened in tourneys where I had 1/2 average stack at some point ... sometimes for long periods of time.

Climbing in these tournaments tends to happen *quickly*. A couple good hands, and you're in the thick of things.

I think the math basically shows you that you have to play to accumulate chips in these things. Making the money is irrelevant the vast majority of the time, except as an opportunity to pick on people and accumulate chips. I say "the vast majority of the time" because if you're sitting there with 1BB and you're one place off from the money, you should probably fold into the money, if possible.

[sfwusc]

It is a call. You can't play for the money.

You have to play to win! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

SWUSC