On the bubble, tied for chip lead, fold AKs to all-in...

[rydazzle]

SnG, 4 players left, blinds at 100/200

*approx* chip count:
Hero ~ 2500
SB ~ 2500
B ~ 1500
UTG ~ 500

Folds around to SB who goes all-in. I have A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifK/images/graemlins/diamond.gif in my hand. At this point I am not sure why this guy wants to get mixed up with the only other stack that can eliminate him (or if he's capable of that kind of thought). The table has been generally tight since we've been down to 4 players. My guess is JJ/QQ, but who knows, he could be as foolish/aggressive as 55-88. If he has a monster, would he play it like this?

I decide to fold, since there is a good chance I am an underdog and I don't want to risk an ITM. I did some hand analysis after the tourney was over and feel pretty good about the decision. Whats my chance of finishing ITM if I call? Say I start conservatively (in my favor) and give my opponent a 60% chance of a high pair and 40% of just some high connecters:

(define P(hand) as prob of beating "hand")

.6*P(high pair) + .4*P(big connectors) = .6(46%) + .4(63%) = 52.8%

Ok! 52.8% chance of winning the showdown, which is 47.2% chance of finishing not ITM. Keep in mind here there could be a higher chance he's on a high pair, or that he could be bluffing...but bluff the big stack with 300 in the pot? I doubt it.

So I have *roughly* a 45% chance of finishing out of the money if I call...If I fold, I feel my chances of getting that 500 chip guy out of the way is way better than 50%.

comments please.

R

[kyro]

Without checking your math, I fold too. UTG is about to be gone, and you'd really hate to run into a pocket pair here.

[rydazzle]

Is the lackluster due to this being an easy call in this spot?

[Slim Pickens]

My $0.02 is this: If I'm SB, I'm pushing with all sorts of crap here. Pretty much any two. Why? I want the chip lead. I want to work the bubble, and I can't do that if you're on my left with more chips. The fact that you're folding AKs demonstrates why this is a good idea. If you feel like wagering your buy-in that SB is any good, call. If you think he's no good, fold.

SlimP

[burgi]

I would call this as well. I don't just want to finish ITM, I want to win this thing!
There are not many hands that are better than AK preflop or against which you are not a race! I would call in a heartbeat and if he beats you, oh well.
Should you win the hand, you will have about T5000 and are a clear favorite to win this thing!
But that's just me!

[Slim Pickens]

Let me just clarify, you should only call if you can, with a fair degree of certainty, put him on a range that includes a lot of hands with aces and kings in them. You must have him dominated most of the time to make this a good call.

SlimP

[multifast1]

Easy call for me. You're at worst a slight underdog to any pair (can't imagine he'd play KK or AA like that!) Against any other hand you're a slight favorite to a dominating position (against Ax or Kx). If you call, you're ITM is determined directly by that percentage since you're both even stacked going in... and overall I gotta believe that's a +EV situation to call.

AND you've neglected the fact that if you call and win, you're not only guaranteed ITM, but you'll have a dominating chip lead and have a a better overall cashing value (more 1st and 2nd finishes than if you fold).

Edit: After writing this, I curious how many people have been knocked out more times on the bubble by pushing with "any two" on the button or SB and getting called than they have by actually calling with a good or premium hand when someone is making a steal move on them? I know i've lost more on the former than the latter...

[the_joker]

Easy fold even if he's pushing any 2.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
Easy fold if he's pushing any 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[Slim Pickens]

OK. I'm making some contradictory statements so I'll clarify.

If your opponent is pushing absolutely any two, it is an easy fold. If your opponent is pushing a wide range of typical 2+2 garbage pushing hands like Ax, Kx, Qxs, suited connectors, you might consider calling. If your opponent is pushing Ax, Kx, and PP's, call. If your opponent is pushing only good hands, fold.

This is why I have my specialty pushing range that includes only crap hands to avoid being dominated by the typical range of calling hands.

SlimP

[ace_in_the_hole]

If your playing for first I don't think you can lay this down. I call and get shown AQ/AJ/KQs if your going for 8% ROI then fold but if your shooting for an ROI above 12% you gotta make this call. IMHO.

[ace_in_the_hole]

To add on...
Put yourself in SB positon he is probably pushing a decent hand and praying that you don't wake up to AK/AA/KK.

[rydazzle]

Thanks for the comments

I had no reason to think this guy was pushing with anything less than premium. He was playing pretty tight along with the rest of us, inlcuding folding to some SB v BB raises by me. I just felt this was really bizarre and out of place, wasnt willing to pay my entire stack to find out what the heck he was doing.

...for bubble play, is it worth risking 2500 to gain 300? Maybe against a small stack, but here he knows that this could cost him the tournament. Maybe this was a play with AA designed to look like a steal?

As far as EV goes, this is a tough one. I call and lose (about 45%-65%) I finish with -buyin. I call and win, I get tons o chips and a great chance at 1 spot. I fold, then I still remain about tied for chip lead with a good chance at 1 spot.

I finshed first in the tournament, maybe this is why I can live with my decision... /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[rydazzle]

Asks the noob, "what's FYP?"

[Slim Pickens]

Fixed your post. I took out the word "even." Any two is a fold, only premium is a fold, but there's a range in the middle where you should call.

[multifast1]

Good job finishing the toruney out in 1st. Some things I'd take into account too was how tightly he was playing prior with big blinds (also keeping in mind that this type of player is more likely to make push/fold moves!) and the buy-in amount. I doubt someone at the $5-$30 tables is going try and "disguise" an AA with an all-in that will only be called by AA or KK. Based on what you said now I'd put him on 88-QQ or even AK.

Good topic and maybe it isn't as "easy" of a call as I thought...

[rydazzle]

[ QUOTE ]
To add on...
Put yourself in SB positon he is probably pushing a decent hand and praying that you don't wake up to AK/AA/KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

I did put myself in SB position, he was playing tight - this is mostly why I folded. I would guess JJ if I had a gun to my head, doesnt want a call but maybe a coin flip is he does. Do I want a coin flip on the bubble tied for the chip lead? Personally, I dont.

It is entirely different if SB was playing aggressively, but I had no evidence to give this much weight.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
If your playing for first I don't think you can lay this down. I call and get shown AQ/AJ/KQs if your going for 8% ROI then fold but if your shooting for an ROI above 12% you gotta make this call. IMHO.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not a matter of "playing for first" or any other such crap. If you told me my opponent had AQ/AJ/KQs, of course I call. If you told me he was pushing any two, I fold.

[Ixnert]

At a quick guess, a call here costs you about half a buyin on average if he's really pushing any two. (Assuming about a 70/20/10 distribution of finishes if you call and win, which may be slightly conservative, but I don't think too much; and a 35/40/20/5 distribution if you simply fold.) This seems large enough that I'd have to be pretty convinced that SB was indeed not pushing premiums and not pushing any two, but *was* pushing medium (and likely dominated) hands to risk it.

[multifast1]

AKs v. Ax = ~75% win
AKs v. any two = ~66% win
AKs v. pp (other than AA/KK) = ~46%

Is the difference between villian having a dominated Ax/Kx hand and a "any two" hand that significant to make a difference between call or fold?

[rydazzle]

[ QUOTE ]
AKs v. Ax = ~75% win
AKs v. any two = ~66% win
AKs v. pp (other than AA/KK) = ~46%

Is the difference between villian having a dominated Ax/Kx hand and a "any two" hand that significant to make a difference between call or fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

I completely agree, especially since "any two" can give AKs almost 70%

[multifast1]

Ok, I just ran the ICM calculations... and I'm not sure if I did them right BUT...

Fold = 2200/7000 chips = 31.4% ICM
Call and win = 5000/7000 chips = 71.4% ICM
Call and lose = 0%

If villian has:
Ax/Kx (75/25 odds)= 53.6% ICM
Any two (66/33 odds)= 47.1% ICM
PP 22-QQ (46/54 odds)= 32.8% ICM

Compared to 31.4% ICM if folding, calling sounds pretty good.

[Slim Pickens]

Somehow, the OP has only 7000 total chips in play. Something is not right. I just reformatteed my hard drive so I'm stuck without any SGA until I get my new reg code. I feel helpless.

[gisb0rne]

I entered these numbers into SnG Power Tools and got...

Raise any 2: -1.8% EV
Raise TT+, AQ+: -8.5% EV
Raise 77+, A9+: -5.3% EV
Raise 22+, A2+, KQ, KJs: -3.1% EV
Raise 22+, A2+, K2+, Q9+: -1.5% EV

So it's clear fold (according to PT). I would guess the reason is largely due to the fact that AKs just doesn't dominate many hands and you are risking an almost guaranteed 3rd while the blinds are not very high relative to your stack size. Would you be happy if you called and he flipped over any pair? I wouldn't. What about if he flipped over JTs or something?

According to the PT you should call with AA no matter what. Call with KK only if you think he raised with 22+, A2+, KQ, KJs or worse. Call with QQ only against a range broader than 22+, A2+, K2+, Q9+. If you think he's raising literally any 2, you can call with as low as 99.

Notice that these pairs all perform better than AKs because really, AKs doesn't perform all that well against anything that doesn't include an A or K.

[Slim Pickens]

I just used your numbers with 8000 chips. Maybe I need to rethink this.

Fold = 2200/8000 chips = 27.5% ICM
Call and win = 5000/8000 chips = 62.5% ICM
Call and lose = 0%

If villian has:
Ax/Kx (75/25 odds)= 46.9% ICM
Any two (66/33 odds)= 41.3% ICM
PP 22-QQ (46/54 odds)= 28.8% ICM

Compared to 27.5% ICM if folding, calling sounds pretty good.

[multifast1]

Edit: read the stats wrong.. Can someone else shed light on the PT stuff? That doesn't make sense at all.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]

Raise TT+, AQ+: -8.5% EV
Raise 77+, A9+: -5.3% EV
Raise 22+, A2+, KQ, KJs: -3.1% EV
Raise 22+, A2+, K2+, Q9+: -1.5% EV
Raise any 2: -1.8% EV

[/ QUOTE ]

It does appear to go through a maximum somewhere in there... somewhere close to +EV... I should know my numbers better than that...

[gisb0rne]

Even if I change the chip counts to 2500/2500/2000/1000 it's still a fold against a raise with any 2.

[Slim Pickens]

Since you've got SGA running and I don't now...

Can you find a modestly plausible range where it is +EV to call? My whole argument so far has been "I think it is there, somewhere above any two."

[the_joker]

If you put him on TT+,A2+,K2+ (a bizarre range) then it's even money. Something like 22+,A2+,K2+, or even 99+,A2+,K2+, is a fold.

[multifast1]

OK, I've lookied into PT once and haven't used it before BUT to me it looks like you're doing raise analysis (whether it's +EV to push or not) rather than call analysis (should I call his all-in based on hand ranges).

[Eihli]

sngPT shows a call being -EV even if the SB pushes any 2 here.

[rydazzle]

correct, this is why I have *approx* (and I hoped no one would care /images/graemlins/wink.gif. The important fact was that I was tied for the chip lead, there was a player just about dead and someone in between.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
sngPT shows a call being -EV [deleted even] if the SB pushes any 2 here.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[gisb0rne]

[ QUOTE ]
If you put him on TT+,A2+,K2+ (a bizarre range) then it's even money. Something like 22+,A2+,K2+, or even 99+,A2+,K2+, is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

It looks like that is probably the only range where it's non-negative EV to call given the original posters chip counts. However, if I adjust the counts to reflect 8000 total chips in a way that favors calling [2500,2500,2000,1000] then there are a lot more calling situations though many of them (like the above one) are completely unrealistic.

With modified chip counts (2500, 2500, 2000, 1000)...
TT+, AQ+: -6.6% EV
77+, A9+: -3.5% EV
22+, A2+, KQ, KJs: -1.4% EV
22+, A2+, K2+, Q9+: +0.2% EV
Any 2: -0.2% EV
22+, A2+, K2+, Q5+, J8+, T8+, 98, 54s, 65s, 76s, 87s: -0.1% EV (my super aggressive player range that i just made up now)

[11t]

Maximize your win-rate and fold.

[11t]

Using that logic I would be far more inclined to call here with TT than AK.

[Slim Pickens]

Yeah. It's OK, but it is important to get the correct total number of chips in play when doing the ICM analysis. As long as the balance of chips is folded, we can just say you have 2.5k, SB has 2.5k, and 3k are elsewhere.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
Using that logic I would be far more inclined to call here with TT than AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would be more inclined to call with TT, but not far more. I'm not sure I'd be inclined enough to actually call with TT. Given what the OP said his read was, I only call in this situation with AA, KK, maybe QQ. The situation changes dramatically as SB's puching range changes, and that change is non-linear, which I think is throwing some people here.

SlimP

[baronzeus]

I haven't read this yet, but this is one of the easiest folds you can make. Read HOH again, it's in there.

[rydazzle]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if I change the chip counts to 2500/2500/2000/1000 it's still a fold against a raise with any 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this distribution changes things, for me at least. Here the 4th player has 1000, not quite dead, where in my example the 4th player had about 2.5x BB.

I may have called in this situation...

[rydazzle]

[ QUOTE ]
I haven't read this yet, but this is one of the easiest folds you can make. Read HOH again, it's in there.

[/ QUOTE ]

You must be alluding to vol II? The multi-table qualifier where he advised to fold AA? Slightly more black and white in his example (playing for entry, not staggered payouts) but in the same vein for sure.

[felson]

Haven't read the other replies. This is a toughie. I assume you haven't seen SB make moves like this in the last 10 min -- if so, then you have got to think you are way ahead here.

I think your equity against non-pair hands is way above 63%. You'll dominate him in many cases, so probably your equity is closer to 70%. And I don't think he has a pair even half the time here.

It's hard for me to imagine that you are anything worse than a coinflip here, and you will usually be way ahead. SB pushes with nothing here pretty often I think. I know I would.

I assume the prize payout scheme is 50%/30%/20%, yes? If you fold, your real money equity is probably ~30%, maybe a little higher. If you call and win, 40% of the time you will have zero. 60% (my estimate) of the time you double up and will usually take first, so your real money equity is ~45% I am guessing. On the average, your real money equity if you call is .6 * .45 = 27%. This argues for a fold.

I guess it's a fold then. I hate it, but it seems like you can wait for a smaller stack to bust first.

[Moonsugar]

Some things on ICM:

It is not just a ratio of stack sizes. It is the equity in the prize pool that the stack sizes should have, according to theory (in all of its limitations). You can never have an equity in the prize pool greater than the top prize, in this case 50%.



ICM Calculator is useful... (http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html)

But this tool is more useful. (http://sitngo-analyzer.com/)

[multifast1]

Moonsugar, thanks! I just could fiure where the disconnect was between my straight-up ICM calculations and what SnG PT was reporting. That does make a little more sense now but I still have a hard time thinking it's that big a difference. I guess I'll fork out the money for SnG PT and mess with it more in depth myself. I hate just reading off the numbers a program spits out without understanding the logic behind it. Thanks again.