the biggest pot i've ever played ... (warning: very long)

[bigredlemon]

7 Card Stud High-Low ($10/$20), Ante $1, Bring-In $3 (hand converter (http://www.geocities.com/greenage22/7StudConverter.hta.txt))

3rd Street - (0.60 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif___folds
Seat 2: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/club.gif___completes___calls
Hero: 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif___brings-in___raises
Seat 6: xx xx 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif___calls___calls
Seat 8: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif___calls___folds

Seat 2 villain is TAG... not but solid. He seems to often make bad judgement calls on the later streets. I'm putting him on something like (A5)6 unsuited, so I'm probably taking the worest of it by trying to get it HU now, but hope to make it payday if I do hit. I don't put him on a baby straight flush since he didn't 3bet.

Seat 7: a little loose but solid and aggressive. I'm scared of him and want him to leave, but think I probably have better pot equity than him. (He'd complete with a better hand.)
Seat 8: loosest of all of us on 3rd but only slightly so. Seems like a strong player nonetheless.


Anyone take a different line here?


4th Street - (6.90 SB)

Seat 2: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif___checks___calls
Hero: 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif___checks___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif___bets

Double yuck. AND seat 2 checks. There is almost no hand i can put him on that he wouldn't bet. He's either slowplaying a big monster draw or he very goofed completing 3rd.

Seat 7 betting here is also showing a LOT of strength given what seat 2 caught. I'm almost certain that not only do I have worst hand, I'm also drawing to the worst hand. But it's just one bet into a huge pot and I'm closing the action. Everyone else agree with folding here?


5th Street - (4.95 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif___bets
Hero: 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif___calls

According to Ray Zee, at the higher limits, everyone is tight. You make you money by making folds when you aren't drawing to the best hand. I think he might have even used this exact example, and even mentioned me by name. It's 1BB to me to win 3, and I'm drawing to the worst hand in both directions. Clear fold?


6th Street - (7.95 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___checks
Hero: 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___bets
Seat 7: xx xx 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif___?

More strange behaviour from seat 2. Even if the four paired him, he would still bet aces up. I'm showing no straight possibilities either, so something is definetly wrong here. The only thing that makes sense is he made a lock on high and felt that I would raise his bet to kick out seat 7, so he could be value checking.

But if he's filled then I need 75% chance of winning low for the bet to be correct. Of 7653A, 10 are dead of 17 cards seen. This give him 28.6% of hitting some low card. Maybe 1/3rd will pair him up, so I'm correct to bet here if seat 2 has no low draw. I can't give seat 7 and free card and so I have to bet it.

Anyone else take a free card here?

6th Street--part two - (7.95 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___checks___raises
Hero: 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif___bets___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif___calls___calls

I suspected this raise might be coming... I guess I was too optimistic in hoping he wouldn't as there's no cards down he could have thaht he wouldn't raise with. Since seat 7 isn't going anywhere I think I have to call it here. The fold button is telling me it needs some love too.

River - (13.95 BB)

Seat 2: xx xx 6/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/club.gif A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif xx___checks___?
Hero: 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif A/images/graemlins/spade.gif 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4/images/graemlins/club.gif___bets
Seat 7: xx xx 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif xx___?

More bizarre behaviour from seat 2. But since I most likely have half of it locked up and seat 7 isn't going to bet anything but a monster here, I lead out.

Total pot: (15.95 BB) -- $319 /images/graemlins/shocked.gif


Thoughts and comments?

When seat 2 turned over his cards... i was rather surprised. I definetly didn't see that possibility.

[mscags]

I think yonu know when you need to fold the hand. I usually like aggressive play on third but not in this situation and some might disagree with me. My thinking is that A35 is a great hand, but it is very easy to brick or catch somedthing to throw you behind plus no additional outs as opposed too something like 345 or 456 where there are tons of cards that help you and even more cards that really help you. Anyway my point being is that I have the same problem you do, once I get so much action in on third I don't want to fold fourth for just one bet. Since you close the action though and the pot is big I don't mind your call. I think folding there is definitely ok too for what your opponents caught, but since you close the action... Continuing, 5th is where you really need to dump your hand. You almost certainly have to be behind in both direction. The Aces must either have Aces up or Aces and a 4 low, and the other villian probably has a better low draw than you as well. Now is the time to save some $$ and fold. I really want to bet sixth by the way that seat 2 has played this hand but when he checkraises I really want to throw up in my mouth. Seat 2's river play is very strange. The river is obvious for you though, and I hope you took down your half. Are you playing in the tourney tonight by the way?

[Andy B]

I don't have a problem with the way you played third. You might want to err on the side of caution, though. You're playing bigger than ever, and this is the sort of hand that can be hard to play on later streets if you catch merely OK.

If you had just called on third, you could fold fourth without looking back. As it is, you're getting almost 9:1 and your call closes the action, so you almost have to take one off. That said, you more than likely have the worst hand, and there's not really anything you can catch to make you a powerhouse.

It does look a little funny when a guy raises with a little card on third, catches a suited Ace, and then checks, but

1) You raised on third behind him and
2) The third player has caught a threatening card.

Fifth is a fold. You have no credible shot at the high, and your low is probably second- or third-best. The pot is pretty small. Get while the gettin's good.

I would probably bet sixth, but checking isn't a disaster by any means. Giving that free card to seat 7 is only a disaster if he would have folded a draw to a better hand to a bet, and I don't think many will do that. While you have a credible high draw, you may not have the best low hand, and I don't think anyone's going anywhere. Seat 2 has played this hand very strangely, and I think you should be concerned about a check-raise. If he does check-raise, a three-bet will put pressure on seat 7, but that's a pretty substantial investment. I don't think there's anything wrong with checking and hoping.

Nice river. It might be a little scary, but it's definitely worth a bet.

[J5983]

Seat 2 looks like (KK), although I don't know why he c/r 6th. 5th is a fold, 6th is a definite 3bet.

[bigredlemon]

I'm not sure why I called 5th. I wouldn't normally call at 1/2 so calling it here wasn't too smart. As for 6th, what do you suppose an optimal seat 7's calling range would be for one bet?
A6 - no straight out and 3,5,6, fairly dead
A3/A5/36 semi dead gut straight and lower low draw

Given how dead all his draws were, I hoped he would fold all of those for one bet.

As for taking down my half... I wasn't sure which half was mine so I ended up just taking everything. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

When I do post results, I think whether villain's hand was strong enough for a c/r might be an interesting topic.

As for the tourney, I already registered.

[bigredlemon]

Nice analysis. I think you're probably one of the best stud8 player, and yet I don't think I've ever seen you post a stud 8 hand?

[bigredlemon]

any particular reason you put him on KK?

[mscags]

I think A3/A5/36 would all be calling hands for him and so would the other hand you listed. A6 maybe not so much be he is still probably gonna take one off. If you thought that you could get him to fold that I like this bet. Glad you took down the whole thing. Nothing is nicer than scooping a pot at a high limit you don't usually play at. Helps the BR a little /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Andy B]

I posted a few during the fall. I seem to do a lot better playing NLHE and high-only stud on Stars, so I stick to that. I'll probably play some $30/60 during Canterbury's Fall Classic, so I'll try to post some hands then.

[Bartholow]

Usual disclaimer that stud/8 is my worst game.

I agree that the hands that make sense to me for seat 2 are high hands, like KK or QQ. Noone else has mentioned this, are we missing somethin or are you guys?

Given that read and probably even without it, I would consider 3-betting 6th. You want seat 7 to fold a better low draw.

[bigredlemon]

My hoping that he would fold wasn't because of any particular read; it was just blind hope that he might fear a raise enough to fold 6th. I ran some sims on twodimes and it turns out that having a gutshot straight A5 was much better for him in terms of pot equity than 35 for the open straight. Presuming he had A5, he needed 1:5 to call, which he correctly can make. He would have to fold for a raise. So on 6th, I had the option of spending 1-2 more bets to get it HU.

According to twodimes, I have only slightly less pot equity against aces up and lower low draw (.49), slightly more pot equity than aces and big pair no low draw (.52 iirc), and being killed if he made a low draw (.09).

Give that range, do I 3bet or flat call?
If I had a better read on what he had this decision might be easier. I had no idea at the time and decided to play it safe. Should I 3bet regardless and risk a cap?

[bigredlemon]

yes that is indeed what he had (KK). I wish I had known that at the time so I could have 3bet 6th. Actually, I'll take sheer luck and rivering a 4 instead.

[J5983]

Why KK?
3rd: I have a big pair, let's try to drive out the bringin.
4th: Uh oh, two low draws... (He should still raise, the pot is big)
5th: Ah ha! Charge!
6th: I have no idea. Maybe he was hoping you would 3 bet, and figured you would just call if you had paired up?
7th: Bah, no boat, hope I only have to call one bet.