What's the move?

[0evg0]

What's the play here? There's 32 left, I'm in 6th, Villain is in 4th.

No real read on Villain here. Have been at the table with him for over an hour, and he seems fairly solid. He certainly isn't doing this with any 2.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1200, Ante is t75 (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

UTG (t12090)
UTG+1 (t24754)
MP1 (t5016)
MP2 (t24754)
MP3 (t50836)
Villain (t31107)
Button (t25202)
Hero (t26914)
BB (t19194)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="#666666">5 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises t4800</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ???</font>

[Colombo]

I'd probably push here. His calling range on you is only QQ+ and AK. with that strong bet, it looks like an AK at best, probably not AA or KK, unless he is betting stronger to look weak.***

Has the table been very loose or very tight? If the table has been very tight i definately do not see AA/KK here, and probably not QQ. At a loose table, you might see this though.

Anyway, I push and expect to see AK *if* called.

I think this is a great time to double up and be in a position to win.

*** is he a tricky player like this?

[0evg0]

Obviously a fold is out of the question, but I'm wondering if there isn't another option besides pushing. While it is a great position to double up, payouts at this stage are pennies, and I feel I can run over the table anyway.

Is a stop and go on the flop an option?
Is reraising him 2-2.5x an option?

Table has been fairly loose, but nothing crazy. With these big stacks, no pot has gone uncontested preflop, and the question has simply been who can steal it first.

Also, this is the first time I recall seeing a 4xbb raise.

[Colombo]

I dont think you can raise a signifcant amount without pot comitting yourself.

You could always call the bet, i suppose, but then you need to hope for a safe flop and have the skill to play OOP

[sekrah]

What is your table image??

Stop and go is tricky.. because no matter what hits the board, he's probably going to throw another 4800 (or so) out at the pot.. Then what do you do? He could just easy be protecting Q-Q as he would bluffing with A-K, or finding out how good his 7-7 is.

If YOU push all in, he's only going to call you with AA, KK, or QQ (imo!).. He has the odds to call with A-K, but he's gotta know he's nothing more than a coinflip at best, not a good tournament play.


I like a re-raise to 10K-12K.. He'll fold low/middle pairs, He'll come over the top with QQ,KK,AA. He only calls with A-K IMO., if rags hit, the pot is yours.. If he comes over the top, you can chuck it know you did the right thing and saved yourself from being eliminated!! The blinds are a couple levels away from desperation level IMO. If the blinds are another level or two higher, I might go with All-In..

Note: This is all depending on the opponent being a tight-solid player, and yourself being tight-solid.

[petvan]

I've got a lot of learning to do, but here I fold. I don't have much invested, and a good lead on most players and plenty of time to wait for a better spot, or exert leverage on small stacks. I just don't want to put my tourney life on the line, or a third or more of my stack on a hand that can become pretty weak pretty fast.

Maybe I am way to tight (might explain why I don't make many finals ;-)

P

[sekrah]

Actually, that's probably my #2 option to raising to 10-12K.

#1, Raise to $10-$12k for information, (Fold to a Re-Raise)
#2, Fold
#3, Stop and Go
#4, All-in

..

I don't see anything wrong with folding and picking a better spot against a smaller stack.. Jacks is not as strong of a hand as it might appear.. That's a hand that gets alot of people knocked out of a tournament.

[Sam T.]

[ QUOTE ]
#1, Raise to $10-$12k for information, (Fold to a Re-Raise)
#2, Fold
#3, Stop and Go
#4, All-in



[/ QUOTE ]

No offense, but there is some really bad advice here.

No offense, but the villain is a big stack, raising from LP. If the villain isn't doing this with any two, he needs to have his head examined. Most players here would be doing it with any ONE if that one were higher than a ten.

No offense, but raising half your stack and then folding is without a doubt the worst option out there. Are you seriously suggesting the hero take himself to 10BB, and then fold? This is terrible. Think about the issue of long term survival, the chances of going deep, and then do the math! If you raise, he pushes, and shows you AA, you STILL should call. (Okay, maybe not, but just maybe.)

When the betting gets to Hero, there is t7275 in the pot.

Hero raises to ten, the pot is t17275, and the villain only has to call t4400. Unless he was pithed midway through the hand, he has to call. You then have to wonder what to do when an A, K or Q flops, and it's your move. This is a horrible position.

Push, and it's not close.

Sam

[sekrah]

You're probably right. /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

[TxDozerMan]

You are right he may not be doing this with *any* 2, but come on you have the tightest player's range here crushed. Could you imagine a range tighter than this for a big stack in late position?

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 58.8738 % 58.20% 00.67% { JJ }
Hand 2: 41.1262 % 40.45% 00.67% { 77+, ATs+, KJs+, ATo+, KJo+ }

If you don't push him off this you might as well sit out on your blinds. Sure occasionally he will have AA,KK,QQ, but you will pick up a nice pot very often, not to mention letting the table know not to mess with your blinds.

[0evg0]

In case it matters, I have an image as a very agressive player when stealing uncontested pots, and have shown this agression quite a bit. However, I have not gone over the top of raisers at all without a top hand, and have showdown QQ and KK (twice) when I have.

With this guy being looser than normal, and my being more agressive than the norm, I opened up his range of hands that he'd call a push with.

[TxDozerMan]

How wide of a calling range do you put him on? If he is calling here with 99+,AK,AQs I can't get my chips in fast enough. He still folds most of the time and you get a nice boost to your stack uncontested, and when he does call you are not in terrible shape. This is an auto-push for me in the SB with a stack this size.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.5978 % 47.45% 01.14% { JJ }
Hand 2: 51.4022 % 50.26% 01.14% { 99+, AQs+, AKo }

Edit: I am also pushing TT, 99, and usually 88 here, lower than that depends on the player.

[Dobbs1]

If I'm villian, I'm only calling Hero's push with AA-QQ. Given the 4X raise, Villian probably wants the blinds and I expect Villian to fold to my push.

[TxDozerMan]

Yeah, calling range here gets into what does he think I think. Villian could have say 99, or AQ, and think Hero put him on a steal with junk. Villian will have a hard time folding this then. Gets very player dependent here, but I agree I expect Villian to fold here VERY often, thus the reason for the push.

[0evg0]

While I put him on a slightly wider range of hands, I too thought he would fold to a push here. I considered playing a stop and go, but figured with the FE I was getting, and the possibility that I was ahead, I had to push.

He deliberates for the 60 seconds, and then calls with AKo.

Flop is 234
Turn is 2349
River is 2349K

GG me, bad call you.

In case it matters, this was an afternoon $20/2.

[Sam T.]

If he puts you on anything under KK or AA (neither of which seems very likely), he's making the right play. You both played it right, and in a perfect world the board would have given you both the straight so you could split.