Runner-Runner Analysis

[Gene2x]

Knowing that the odds of hitting the runner-runner flush is 1/16, is there a quick way to figure what the pot needs to offer to make it worth investing a small bet to see the turn?

Your hand Ac Kc
Flop: 5c 6s 7h

If five players capped the betting pre-flop and the pot had $80 in it, would you call a $4 bet on the flop? Why? Why not? What if there was a chance someone might raise behind you.

Assume in this instance that hitting an A or K will not win the hand for you.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
Knowing that the odds of hitting the runner-runner flush is 1/16, is there a quick way to figure what the pot needs to offer to make it worth investing a small bet to see the turn?

Your hand Ac Kc
Flop: 5c 6s 7h

If five players capped the betting pre-flop and the pot had $80 in it, would you call a $4 bet on the flop? Why? Why not? What if there was a chance someone might raise behind you.

Assume in this instance that hitting an A or K will not win the hand for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

The general consensus is to give yourself 1.5 outs on the flop for a flush draw. To draw to 1.5 outs you'd need about 30:1, and since the pot is giving you 20:1, you'd fold. Of course in real life you certainly would not fold because of your overcard outs, but you said to discount them.

Also, backdoor flush draws come in one time in 24, not 16.

[Gene2x]

I guess we found an error in Dennis Purdy's Illustrated Guide to Texas Hold'em- page 51. He states odds are 15:1 for runner-runner flush.

[aK13]

(10/47) * (9/46) = 1/24

/images/graemlins/blush.gif

[Gene2x]

1.5 outs for runner-runner flush- but 24:1 is actually 2 outs.

I guess the beginner's mistake would be to rationalize: "The pot is offering me 20 to 1 for me to hit a four-flush which is 5 to 1- good deal, I'll call and if I don't get it I'll just fold to the $8 bet, but if I hit it then the pot will be offering me 11 to 1 or better to hit my flush on the river which is about 5 to 1 again."

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
1.5 outs for runner-runner flush- but 24:1 is actually 2 outs.

I guess the beginner's mistake would be to rationalize: "The pot is offering me 20 to 1 for me to hit a four-flush which is 5 to 1- good deal, I'll call and if I don't get it I'll just fold to the $8 bet, but if I hit it then the pot will be offering me 11 to 1 or better to hit my flush on the river which is about 5 to 1 again."

[/ QUOTE ]

We count 1.5 because there are times when our flushes do not hold up (sets fill up to boats with our flush card).

[Gene2x]

Right. I think I remember seeing that in Dan's book.

Ok. So, you said the pot needs to offer 30:1. Do you mean on the flop? So, in the scenario above, if the pot had $120 in it on the flop, you'd try for the flush card on the turn for $4. But if it only had $100 in it, you'd fold.

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
Right. I think I remember seeing that in Dan's book.

Ok. So, you said the pot needs to offer 30:1. Do you mean on the flop? So, in the scenario above, if the pot had $120 in it on the flop, you'd try for the flush card on the turn for $4. But if it only had $100 in it, you'd fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

We can't runner runner flushes on the the turn /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[Gene2x]

huh?

[Bob T.]

but 24:1 is actually 2 outs.

I guess the beginner's mistake would be to rationalize: "The pot is offering me 20 to 1 for me to hit a four-flush which is 5 to 1- good deal, I'll call and if I don't get it I'll just fold to the $8 bet, but if I hit it then the pot will be offering me 11 to 1 or better to hit my flush on the river which is about 5 to 1 again."

Well, you need 30-1, and you treat it as 1.5 outs, because if you catch well on the turn, you probably have to invest more money on the river.

As an aside, runner runner flush isn't usually something you play for, but it is something that adds value to a marginal hand. For instance, if you have a gutshot, with runner runner flush possibilities, it might make a fold into a playable hand on the flop. Or bottom pair, or someother hand, the extra estimated 1.5 outs might change your play on the flop.