2 similar, but slightly different, bubble hands..

[raptor517]

NL Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:13473621 Level:8 Blinds(200/400) - Tuesday, June 28, 03:23:36 EDT 2005
Table Table 17029 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: Itachi86 ( $1650 )
Seat 3: lnd2312 ( $525 )
Seat 6: DARETOCALL1 ( $4310 )
Seat 9: MWelch170 ( $3515 )
Trny:13473621 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Itachi86 [ 9s Ac ]
Itachi86 ??

now the second is slighty different. does the chip balance change how you play this hand?

NL Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:13473621 Level:8 Blinds(200/400) - Tuesday, June 28, 03:23:36 EDT 2005
Table Table 17029 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: Itachi86 ( $1500 )
Seat 3: lnd2312 ( $675 )
Seat 6: DARETOCALL1 ( $4310 )
Seat 9: MWelch170 ( $3515 )
Trny:13473621 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Itachi86 [ 9s Ac ]
Itachi86 ??

[raptor517]

so far no one likes push top fold bottom, which is natural, but the rest of the results are spread out. i wont post my thoughts yet.. but i would like to open a discussion. those who defend each category speak yer minds. holla

[Benholio]

I voted to push both. I can see the argument for folding the top hand, I guess, but I think folding both is way too weak.

This is your last hand with any decent FE, and 600 chips really helps your case here. The shortstack isn't going to come along without a really big hand.

[raptor517]

good, defend yer vote. anyone else? (not sarcastic in any way, if i soudned that way.. apparently i offend people..) holla

[johnnybeef]

I fold both. The second one is pretty close, but shorty still has only enough to cover the blinds, and we all know how loose the monkeys are with their calling standards when they have big stacks.


edit: at the 33s/55s there is no way in hell that the ranges of the two blinds are that tight, especially if i have been pushing a lot lately.

[Nick M]

I vote fold both. One reason which I believe to be very important reason is when you push here, acting before SS, then he should fold like every hand but select monsters. He is hoping you get called and bust. I don't think there is much difference in the 2.

I think a lot of what makes the right play right is what the table is going to look like when you're in the BB and when you're in the SB. When you're in the BB he will be under the gun and will probably move in for either 675 or 525. If he gets called, you can over call for a better chance at knocking him out because it's only 275 or 125 more. This is huge I think.

[DonButtons]

I push both,

top one (525 stack) is closer, but the bottom one is a auto push I think...

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
I push both,

top one (525 stack) is closer, but the bottom one is a auto push I think...

[/ QUOTE ]

thats not good enough.....why?

[Nick M]

SOMEBODY AGREES WITH ME!!!! YEEEAAAAHHHHH!!! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[raptor517]

ok, so i got bored and decided to do a bunch of analysis on this hand, as i havent done that in a while. ive been talking with a bunch of people about this hand, and we are all pretty close to agreement on the calling ranges. i set the sb and bb for calling with 77+, AT+, and KQ. the button will call with 99+, AQ+. for these numbers and calling ranges, these are the results.. this is the first hand btw, i think the second one isnt even close..

$EV Fold 23.2%/$463.61 -> $EV Push 24.5%/$490.19 $EV Diff +1.3%/+$26.58

so, in icm values, its worth it to shove. an interesting thought though, would be.. how much is it worth it to shove any 2 utg? say 23o. is that a hugely -ev play? hmmmm.. thoughts abound /images/graemlins/wink.gif holla

edit..

clearly yall dont think its clear to push the other one, so here are icm numbers on IT, with the same calling ranges.. 77+, AT+, KQ for sb and bb, and for button, 99+ AQ+..

$EV Fold 21.3%/$426.94 -> $EV Push 23.2%/$464.69 $EV Diff +1.9%/+$37.75

i dont put a lot of stock in icm, but i think its a clear shove anyways..

holla

[Deuce2High]

[ QUOTE ]
NL Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:13473621 Level:8 Blinds(200/400) - Tuesday, June 28, 03:23:36 EDT 2005
Table Table 17029 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: Itachi86 ( $1650 )
Seat 3: lnd2312 ( $525 )
Seat 6: DARETOCALL1 ( $4310 )
Seat 9: MWelch170 ( $3515 )
Trny:13473621 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Itachi86 [ 9s Ac ]
Itachi86 ??


[/ QUOTE ]
POOOOOOSH
[ QUOTE ]

now the second is slighty different. does the chip balance change how you play this hand?

NL Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:13473621 Level:8 Blinds(200/400) - Tuesday, June 28, 03:23:36 EDT 2005
Table Table 17029 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: Itachi86 ( $1500 )
Seat 3: lnd2312 ( $675 )
Seat 6: DARETOCALL1 ( $4310 )
Seat 9: MWelch170 ( $3515 )
Trny:13473621 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Itachi86 [ 9s Ac ]
Itachi86 ??

[/ QUOTE ]



FOOOOLD!!! LUCK OUT LATER IF SMALL STACK DOUBLES!

Later Homey


Edit: I also think this hand is a good example of how proper play before the bubble can help tremendously when approaching it. Every chip counts.

[microbet]

I voted fold top, push bottom. I could push the top if the blinds seemed tight. If the blinds were real crazy, I could fold the bottom one.

[llabb]

There is another reason why you need to push both, on top of the ICM #'s. You are most likely to be the one that squares off all-in against the short stack within the next two hands. Next hand, you are BB, and shorty is UTG and needs to push now, which you would autocall with any 2. If shorty does not push, the next hand he is BB and you are SB, and you must auto-push with any 2. Big stacks are likely to let you two duke it out unless they are dealt monsters.

Therefore you are almost sure to be in a 50-50 situation with the shorty in one of the next 2 hands. No problem for the balf the time you bust him and make the money with a fighting chance. But in the half the time you lose and double the shorty up, we are left with four results:

(1) You do not push the current A9 hand, shorty goes all-in next hand, you lose. You now have 1125, ex-shorty has 1150. He has you covered, big stacks will prey on you, and you have to pay blinds before ex-shorty. A -EV situation.

(2) You do not push the current A9 hand, shorty folds next hand, a big stack steals your blind. Hand after that, you are all-in against shorty and lose. You now have 725, ex-shorty has 1150. Absolutely horrible situation.

(3) You push and win the current A9 hand, shorty goes all-in next hand, you lose. You now have 1725, shorty has 1150. Much better situation, as he is still short-stacked and desperate. There is more time for him to bust out against someone else, and for you to pick up a hand. Far more +EV than situation 1.

(4) You push and win the current A9 hand, shorty folds next hand, a big stack steals your blind. Hand after that, you are all-in against shorty and lose. You now have 1325, ex-shorty has 1150. Far more +EV than situation 2.

The chip counts make the case even stronger in the bottom scenario. Because of the above conditions, it is superior to push against any break-even EV calling ranges, and even some -EV calling ranges. Also superior to push with much inferior cards than A9. Too many different scenarios and too much ICM work, though, for me to see how low it's worth going to.

One other thing, when you push the A9 hand, the big stacks' calling ranges are possibly even tighter than is suggested, since they know you must have a hand in order to push when shorty is gonna be blinded to death in the next two hands. Not saying that for sure, since the players are better in the $215's, and I don't play there yet. But from what you guys have written, I doubt all the players in the $215's know all of the above, and call correctly all the time. Just saying that some players may not call with 77 and AT.

Perhaps everyone knows all this and I just wrote a long reply for nothing, but no one's even implied it yet in any of their posts.

[ilya]

I push both of these hands. When there's a short stack at the table and you're the medium stack, I think it's very important to remain agressive when you're first in the pot. The reason's that you're very vulnerable to blind steals from the big stacks, seeing as your calling standards have to be very tight. That's a bad enough situation as it is, but if you tighten up when first in the pot, the big stacks may well realize that you're trying to outlast the shortie and raise your blinds with an even wider range than they normally would have. If you continue to be agressive, however, the big stacks may gather that you're not adjusting to the short stack's presence very much and may well call with a fairly wide range in the blinds. So they might steal a bit less.
Another reason I like pushing is that if you fold, you will almost certainly have to fold the next hand.
And yet another reason is that, while the shortie is in bad shape, he has enough chips to cripple you in an all-in confrontation. And since he's directly on your left, the hand two after this one, which will often be key, will usually have you choosing between doubling him up by folding or setting him all-in with trash. On the surface, it won't cost you much to put him all-in, but losing will be terrible: you will lose all folding equity, and transfer your $$ equity to the worst possible recipient. And you'll have to pay the big blind again before he does.

EDIT: I apologize to llabb for covering some of the same ground, we were writing at the same time and I didn't see his post until after I'd posted mine.

[raptor517]

let me pose a question.. in either situation, is it correct to shove any 2? assume 23o. thoughts? holla

[llabb]

Well, you've done all the analysis, so you tell me. I don't have eastbay's program, and it's too late at night for math. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Ilya's thoughts were great. First half of the post was good psychology regarding the big stacks, second half of the post covered the same thing I did.

Anyway, I'm guessing pushing 23o is a horrible play, but I might push some pretty mediocre hands, anything that has a near-40% chance against the calling range.

By the way, I'm confused about the calling range. I know you talk to some pretty knowledgeable people, and you all play higher stakes than I do. But I would reverse the button and the big stacks' calling ranges, and even further loosen the button's calling range. Button is shorty and would be ecstatic to get any sort of decent shot, given that he has to go all-in on one of the next two hands anyway. As I wrote earlier, mediocre-player big stacks' ranges could even be tighter, since they expect you to have a hand when the shorty's going bust soon, and since they don't want a confrontation and potentially trading places with you.

So rap, what's the ICM for 23o against my reversed calling ranges? How about QJo? 98s?

Lastly, I cannot see how you can defend folding. From the people who tried to, some of their answers don't make sense to me. Not flaming, I'm just learning also, and I could be wrong. But the only reason I see for folding is if the big stacks are not only maniacs, but idiots.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, you've done all the analysis, so you tell me. I don't have eastbay's program, and it's too late at night for math. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Ilya's thoughts were great. First half of the post was good psychology regarding the big stacks, second half of the post covered the same thing I did.

Anyway, I'm guessing pushing 23o is a horrible play, but I might push some pretty mediocre hands, anything that has a near-40% chance against the calling range.

By the way, I'm confused about the calling range. I know you talk to some pretty knowledgeable people, and you all play higher stakes than I do. But I would reverse the button and the big stacks' calling ranges, and even further loosen the button's calling range. Button is shorty and would be ecstatic to get any sort of decent shot, given that he has to go all-in on one of the next two hands anyway. As I wrote earlier, mediocre-player big stacks' ranges could even be tighter, since they expect you to have a hand when the shorty's going bust soon, and since they don't want a confrontation and potentially trading places with you.

So rap, what's the ICM for 23o against my reversed calling ranges? How about QJo? 98s?

Lastly, I cannot see how you can defend folding. From the people who tried to, some of their answers don't make sense to me. Not flaming, I'm just learning also, and I could be wrong. But the only reason I see for folding is if the big stacks are not only maniacs, but idiots.

[/ QUOTE ]

i can defend folding by saying that in icm terms, its not enough +ev to make it worth the push. it is a positive expectation play in the long run, but may not be the MOST +ev play you can make. ie, a fold could be correct.

as for 23o? in the second example, on the bubble, with him having 525 chips.. these are the results for shoving 23o. if the blinds call with 77+, AT+, KQ and the button with 99+, AQ+ (remember, he is hoping for a call from the blinds..).. i think you all might find these results VERY interesting.

$EV Fold 23.3%/$466.51 $EV Push 23.3%/$466.88 $EV Difff +0.0%/+$0.37

so.. what does this tell us? that according to icm, its correct to shove ANY TWO utg. hmmmm. well, its tough to make a folding argument, but maybe later today, i will if i find i get enough hits on this post.. holla

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
$EV Fold 23.3%/$466.51 $EV Push 23.3%/$466.88 $EV Difff +0.0%/+$0.37

so.. what does this tell us? that according to icm, its correct to shove ANY TWO utg. hmmmm. well, its tough to make a folding argument, but maybe later today, i will if i find i get enough hits on this post.. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

ICM doesn't calculate how you'll be in the BB the very next hand and most of the time will have to forfeit it (as either big stack should push any two and you need to fold almost any two).

Also, I'd imagine if you just add one or two calling hands to the bigger stacks' ranges, your ICM numbers will tell you 23o push is quite bad. I think many of the big stacks in the $55s would be on a looser range, especially if you were at the table Raptor, /images/graemlins/wink.gif (I'm assuming, of course, you'd made at least a couple quite aggro pushes so far).

I think I push the both situations with a nice hand like A9o. I think it's even more important to b/c of the fact you're likely losing 400 chips next hand anyways (or going allin vs. shorty with any two vs. his any two - not all that great without the extra cushion you get by winning these blinds).

Yugoslav
PS I forgot to add that while actually playing I'm liable to do anything in these situations...b/c apparently my brain doesn't work during games.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

I like A9 here. It is pretty strong. If you fold, there is always the chance that chip leaders fold (b/c they don't like their hand, or want to keep bubble alive... whatever.) I have seen it all too often that 2nd shortest stack plays too tight and short stack gets handed blinds and finishes ITM. Your hand is too good and will win enough... puusshh!

[pokerlaw]

In the second hand, the small stack could fold 5 more hands before he is chipped out, in the first hand, he can only fold two before he is put all in as the SB. That is why i push the second and fold the first.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
In the second hand, the small stack could fold 5 more hands before he is chipped out, in the first hand, he can only fold two before he is put all in as the SB. That is why i push the second and fold the first.

[/ QUOTE ]

zing. holla

[hobbes9324]

I push both, with a possible hedge - if we've been on the bubble for a while, and I've pushed the last 3 or 3 out of four, I at least consider folding - especially if the chat indicates I might have a spite call thrown at me. But I probably push anyway - A-9 is a pretty fair hand four handed.

But then, I'm a donk......

[lastchance]

I voted Push top fold bottom, but A9 is probably too strong here to fold unless blinds are insane. note: I think Blinds call with a lot more than 77+, AT+, KQ+. I'd make it 44+, A7+, KJ+, at least.

[kamrann]

I'm going to add a totally unconstructive reply, since I don't know what I'd do and can't be bothered thinking about the situation anymore, but anyway just a couple of points to add...

As others have intimated, the ICM model is likely to be way off here. Blinds are huge relative to the two short stacks, relative stack positions and the location of the blinds are everything. The very existence of shorty affects the way you can play here (eg. can't defend your blind against big stacks, who are guaranteed to attack them). These are all things ICM doesn't take into account. Give all this I don't think you can read to much into the ICM results.

I'm a bit miffed by your suggested calling ranges for the blinds. They're getting practically 2:1 on the call (well the BB anyway), winning would put them in with a very high probability of first, and if they lose they are still very very likely to be ITM anyway. I'm pretty sure I'd call with a wider range anyway.

[fluorescenthippo]

in a 50 id fold the top and push the bottom. at a 215 id push both

[tminus]

i push both
but you havent told us anything about the players or how often you pushed prior

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]


i can defend folding by saying that in icm terms, its not enough +ev to make it worth the push. it is a positive expectation play in the long run, but may not be the MOST +ev play you can make. ie, a fold could be correct.

as for 23o? in the second example, on the bubble, with him having 525 chips.. these are the results for shoving 23o. if the blinds call with 77+, AT+, KQ and the button with 99+, AQ+ (remember, he is hoping for a call from the blinds..).. i think you all might find these results VERY interesting.

$EV Fold 23.3%/$466.51 $EV Push 23.3%/$466.88 $EV Difff +0.0%/+$0.37

so.. what does this tell us? that according to icm, its correct to shove ANY TWO utg. hmmmm. well, its tough to make a folding argument, but maybe later today, i will if i find i get enough hits on this post.. holla

[/ QUOTE ]


lol, yea like the BB/SB is going to fold 66 or A9s for 1200 chips. Those ranges seem way tighter than reality to me. I admit Im a bit tighter in the blinds in this situation because I expect UTG to have a bigger hand due to the shortstack, but I'll still gamble with quite a few hands other than the ones you listed given the pot odds Im getting.

[curtains]

btw I push both hands and I dont think its very close.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]

btw I push both hands and I dont think its very close.

[/ QUOTE ]

[aaronk56]

[ QUOTE ]
I like A9 here. It is pretty strong. If you fold, there is always the chance that chip leaders fold (b/c they don't like their hand, or want to keep bubble alive... whatever.) I have seen it all too often that 2nd shortest stack plays too tight and short stack gets handed blinds and finishes ITM. Your hand is too good and will win enough... puusshh!

[/ QUOTE ]

I voted fold both but after reading Dr Jeckyl I realized that I am playing too tight when I'm second short stack and seem to be losing on the bubble too often.