2+2 Stock Trading Competition [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

player24

06-29-2005, 09:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The MarkeWizards series from Jack Schwager. See the interview with Mark Minervini in STOCK MARKET WIZARDS. Poker is specifically mentioned as training tool.

In the other books in the series (interviews with top traders,) poker is mentioned in 3 or 4 interviews.

Search "trading" "Goldman" and "Minervini" using the search feature to learn more. I believe Sklansky has been retained by trading firms in the past to teach poker and general EV concepts.

The correlation is well established.

Please note that "losing-poker" and "losing-trading" are likely highly correlated also.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course, discipline and odds based decision making are beneficial (necessary) attributes for poker players and investors. No one would argue otherwise.

But it is a stretch to say that the correlation between winning poker and winning investment is "well established". Does anyone know whether Warren Buffet is a good poker player? Is Daniel Negranu a good investor? Has anyone actually studied this issue, or have they simply applied theoretical guesswork?

Dan Mezick

06-29-2005, 11:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Let's set one of these up and see how the 2+2ers do trading. There is little doubt winning poker and winning trading are positively correlated.

I'd like to see something structured in at least a 4-month timeframe so the buy-the-breakout, sell-the-breakdown types can't just jump in and get lucky. I also want to be able to go short as well as long, with no leverage. No options. Just pure long or short stock.

Who wants to take participate in this?

[/ QUOTE ]

OK I set it up on Marketwatch.com. Please note I have no experience with the MarketWatch system for setting up this kind of thing. It appears full-featured and ready to go.

The TwoPlusTwo Stock Trading Competition

Here is the structure:

1. 500K starting cash;
2. Long and short stock only-- no options or margin;
3. Start date July 05;
4. End date Sept30 2005;

Here are the details on signing up:

Website:
http://game.marketwatch.com/Competitions/CompetitionHome.asp

Competition ID (enter):
twoplustwoevent001

Password:
fishyfish

Notes:
Before you get to the competition pages, you need to sign up on MarketWatch. When get past that and you sign up for the event, you will asked to enter your actual name and a screen name. This event is set up so your actual name will never display. For the screen name, be sure to use your 2+2 screen name so your posts here and your portfolio results match "by screen name", for anyone that wants to look you up.

Sign up between now and July 04.

Trading commences July 05 2005 and ends September 30 2005.

After September 30 2005, there can only be one winner.

The winner gets to say without bragging that (s)he's the best stock trader on 2+2.

I am cross-posting this on the Psych forum, where I post alot. Anyone else that frequents other forums with some regularity (Theory would be great) are invited to cross-post a link to this thread so it gets around. Maybe we can get 100 or 200 involved here.

Link them to this post since it has all the info in one place needed for background info, and login/participation.

Good luck to all.

Dan Mezick

06-29-2005, 11:46 AM

Regarding correlation, note I said "poker and trading", by this meaning the mechanical, system-type trading approach, not "poker and investing" per se.

I have not seen a single study on this poker:trading correlation, so my assertion is pure theory and in fact "science fiction" at this time. I do believe my assertion to be correct.

Once place where poker, trading and investing intersect heavily is Behavioral Finance (http://www.behaviouralfinance.net/)

Take a look at the "Self Attribution Bias", which for most people is applied to every win and every loss they experience:

The Self-Attribution Bias (http://self-attribution-bias.behaviouralfinance.net/)

player24

06-29-2005, 11:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Regarding correlation, note I said "poker and trading", by this meaning the mechanical, system-type trading approach, not "poker and investing" per se.

I have not seen a single study on this poker:trading correlation, so my assertion is pure theory and in fact "science fiction" at this time. I do believe my assertion to be correct.

Once place where poker, trading and investing intersect heavily is Behavioral Finance (http://www.behaviouralfinance.net/)

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with your hypothesis. I'm just nitpicking.

tek

06-29-2005, 12:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone know whether Warren Buffet is a good poker player?

[/ QUOTE ]

He and Bill Gates are said to be excellent Bridge Players. Gates plays 3/6 limit poker.

player24

06-29-2005, 02:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone know whether Warren Buffet is a good poker player?

[/ QUOTE ]

He and Bill Gates are said to be excellent Bridge Players. Gates plays 3/6 limit poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's all the proof I need. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

wildwood

06-29-2005, 03:14 PM

Hi Dan,
This could be a fun deal. Virtual trading equals playing poker with play money. However, if someone wanted to improve their money poker game then market trading with real money works better because now all the issues of fear, greed, tilt all come into play. I've never been a great fan of paper trading because the emotions don't factor in. fwiw

player24

06-29-2005, 03:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Dan,
This could be a fun deal. Virtual trading equals playing poker with play money. However, if someone wanted to improve their money poker game then market trading with real money works better because now all the issues of fear, greed, tilt all come into play. I've never been a great fan of paper trading because the emotions don't factor in. fwiw

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree to an extent. However, you can reload quickly and easily in play money poker. In this competition, you would not be able to reload your account. So you will have a capital preservation incentive that does not exist in play money poker. This discourages wild risk taking (maniac play), to some extent.

Dan Mezick

06-29-2005, 08:20 PM

Trader tilt is very real. And a huge issue to understand and manage. Under real conditions a typical new student would play ONLY long stock with no margin because of all the factors you list.

If you cannot win at [long stock/no margin] you are just adding variables and kidding yourself if you add anything (for example, short stock) as an additional, allowable type of trade in your method.

Yes, trading play money is not the same--- not nearly. The situation and effect is analogous to playing play money on Party vs. cash on Party.

Rob Blackburn

06-30-2005, 04:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]

The TwoPlusTwo Stock Trading Competition

Competition ID (enter):
twoplustwoevent001

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair warning here, some posters in stud forum ran a little private tourney and put 2+2 in the name so everyone would know it was the right one, and the kind gentlemen at 2+2 were nice enough to report him to the site for using thier name w/o permission.

Maybe consider changing the name of it so it doesn't get shutdown for using the 2+2 name in the identifier. I mean god forbid we wouldn't wnat to infringe on their name.

Just a heads-up.

Dan Mezick

06-30-2005, 08:18 PM

I'll check with Mason on this and get the final word.

Dan Mezick

06-30-2005, 09:53 PM

I checked with Mason, and pleased be advised:

This is not an official Two Plus Two function and Two Plus Two Publishing LLC takes no responsibility.

Emmitt2222

06-30-2005, 10:17 PM

Can you give me any tips on where to go once I sign up. I flat out have no clue what to do. If its too complicated to explain and I have to do all this by myself just tell me and that will be OK, I just dont even know where to click let alone how to invest money. Thanks.

Dan Mezick

07-01-2005, 08:10 AM

On Marketwatch, this is set up to start July 05 so there is nothing to do till then except sign up.

After July 05 there will be new functionality available to add, change, and delete items in the mock portfolio created for you. You will also be able to view everyone else's portfolio and daily/weekly/total portfolio peformance. Etc.

Please note this is a first-time thing so just expect some glitches as we get started.

BradleyT

07-04-2005, 12:35 AM

I signed up but don't think I got asked for a screen name anywhere.

underthegun662

07-04-2005, 03:39 AM

im in. i screwed up during signup and my name is blackchip662

Dan Mezick

07-04-2005, 09:46 AM

Tomorrow is the kickoff, good luck to all. I've got 4 positions I'm ready to establish Tuesday July 5.

Event name:
twoplustwoevent001

Password:
fishyfish

URL:
http://game.marketwatch.com/Competitions/CompetitionHome.asp

STG

07-04-2005, 01:48 PM

I'm in also. Can we have more than 1 portfolio?

Dan Mezick

07-04-2005, 07:43 PM

This is brand new experience with MarketWatch, I believe it is 1 portfolio for the entire contest-- 500K no rebuys, with a 90 day tournament length.

Expect glitches, this way you will not be surprised.

kitaristi0

07-04-2005, 08:48 PM

Well, this should be fun, until i go broke in a week.

savman

07-04-2005, 09:38 PM

i am in....Larkin330, used a poker screen name instead of this one. Dont be surprised if i come in last, but i am hoping to learn some and have fun. good luck all.

wildwood

07-04-2005, 10:02 PM

Hi Dan,
I ran into my glitch signing up. I used a junk email address so I would not be bombarbed with spam. Turns out that is my screen name on the virtual competition.
Wildwood = paral2004lax-ebay

bugstud

07-04-2005, 10:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Dan,
I ran into my glitch signing up. I used a junk email address so I would not be bombarbed with spam. Turns out that is my screen name on the virtual competition.
Wildwood = paral2004lax-ebay

[/ QUOTE ]

mine did the same thing, though my junk email is my named email. since my name will be famous when I win the WSOP /images/graemlins/tongue.gif, it doesn't matter. jameson.painter it is

player24

07-05-2005, 08:45 AM

Lots of problems with screen names, it seems. I screwed up also. I don't think I was never prompted for a screen name at signup.

STG

07-05-2005, 11:15 AM

i just bought my stocks, and everything went ok, but when i look at my portfolio it says I still have 500,000 in cash. With no transactions. Does it take a while to show up?

player24

07-05-2005, 11:19 AM

I had the same experience. There is a time lag.

Dan Mezick

07-05-2005, 11:49 AM

Ok so I go to the competition site on MarketWatch and enter orders today. It was non-obvious to me how to establish positions. I did figure it out, and I share that info now.

Here are the steps for getting your orders in.

1. Click the competition link
a. Stock Trading Competition Link (http://game.marketwatch.com/Competitions/CompetitionHome.asp)
.
2. Enter competition name:
a. twoplustwoevent001
.
3. Enter password:
a. fishyfish
.
4. Look to the lower left, you will see the ‘TRADING TOOLBOX’, here you can enter:
a. SYMBOL
b. QUANTITY
c. ORDER TYPE (buy, sell)
.
5. This is the place to add and liquidate positions. Once you enter the Symbol/Quantity/Order Type info, and click the [Trade] button, you will brought to a trading screen where you can enter all trade details. This is how you add items to the portfolio, and also how you liquidate existing positions.

Please give this a try before you post any problems or glitches getting started. Once you enter orders you are on your way. Give it a try.

One word to the wise. The quotes are delayed 20 minutes, so the price info is 20 minutes stale. Say a stock you are watching just went up $1 in the last 10 minutes. You theoretically could buy it for this competition at the 20-minutes-ago price, and see an instant gain in this little exercise.

It doesnt work that way, however. Orders are not filled instantly. The reality is that all orders take 20 minutes to execute, even Market Orders, so you can't game the system that way.

All your orders apparently fill 20 minutes from when you enter the order.

Good luck to all.

Dan Mezick

07-05-2005, 11:51 AM

It takes 20 minutes, which is the same as the delay on the quote feed they use on MarketWatch for this feature. I just posted 'ESTABLISHING POSITIONS' on this thread on July 05 for readers that may need a few pointers getting started.

Dan Mezick

07-05-2005, 02:03 PM

A note to all:

New participants can come in up to the LAST DAY of this event; signing up by July 05 is not a requirement.

ANYONE CAN SIGN UP AT ANYTIME.

Current participants can help develop this competition by mentioning, talking it up in the 2+2 Forums where you are well known.

For example anyone that frequents the Probability or Theory forums that can make a small mention of it will likely add many new players and make this game much more interesting overall.

Good luck to all.

Dan Mezick

07-05-2005, 02:13 PM

Where are you in terms of being prepared, now?

http://www.traderscalm.com/cq.php

player24

07-05-2005, 04:08 PM

The software has leaves alot to be desired, not the least of which is that in-the-money orders are not always executed.

For example, I had an order to buy stock at price X (order was recorded at 2:33PM) ...stock traded below X several times in the subsequent 82 minutes (until the 4:00PM close), bottoming at(X-.35), yet my buy-to-cover order was not filled.

This statement, taken from the trading-rules section of the website, does not give me alot of confidence: "We will check each stop and limit order every few minutes to see if the stop/limit price has been met until the market close. Day orders will expire if the Stop/Limit price is not met."

From my experience today, execution is sporadic. Based on this fact (my experience) this is not going to be a very good trading test, IMO. It still might work okay if you manage with low turnover and use market orders - but I have lost confidence in the ability to use limit orders and/or high turnover (i.e. trading).

Dan Mezick

07-05-2005, 04:15 PM

The MarketWatch platform is not set up for high-frequency (ie "day") trading. It's better for holding periods of at least 1 day.

Higher-frequency trading will tend to have much higher commission and slippage costs.

If you know of a better platform, perhaps for higher-frequency trading, let us know and we can consider it for the next time.

player24

07-05-2005, 04:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The MarketWatch platform is not set up for high-frequency (ie "day") trading. It's better for holding periods of at least 1 day.

Higher-frequency trading will tend to have much higher commission and slippage costs.

If you know of a better platform, perhaps for higher-frequency trading, let us know and we can consider it for the next time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume (without testing my assumption) that market orders are executed faithfully...and the problems arise (with unknown frequency) on limit orders.

You take away my ability to implement limit trades and I'm staying away from high turnover and I'm staying away from thinly traded stocks (which have a tendency to gap).

I don't know of a better platform for a competition of this type, and I appreciate the fact that you have applied the effort to setup this competition. I posted merely to help people understand that definition of "trading" in this competition is fairly narrow. You have no live feedback on implementation, limit orders are implemented sporadically and you cannot use stops. These limitations push this competition further into an imaginary context, but it can still be fun.

felson

07-05-2005, 05:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The winner gets to say without bragging that (s)he's the best stock trader on 2+2.

[/ QUOTE ]

He can say it, but it will almost certainly be false.

Dan Mezick

07-06-2005, 11:06 AM

Participant "paral2004lax-ebay" is #1 after Day1 with a 1.32% return on a single holding: AUY, Yamana Gold. The price today is 3.80 and the price yesterday was 3.60 or so.

It continues higher today.

I notice the average volume is 294K shares. 294K X 3.80 per share is about 1.1MM in dollars of volume. This means the purchases yesterday by paral2004lax-ebay would have been almost 50% of the total shares traded on Tuesday.

paral2004lax-ebay -- How about some background on this security?

wildwood

07-06-2005, 02:05 PM

Hi Dan,
As I posted earlier wildwood = paral2004lax-ebay on the virtual competition. I never received a screen name option when I registered.
About your question, here are my thoughts. I've been an active stock and commodities trader for quite a long time. I belong to several investing/trading live groups. That doesn't mean I'm a good or bad trader/investor, just giving you some background. I've made every mistake that can be made and probably learned a little along the way. Since the objective of the competition is to win, I think about my strategy just a little differently than my own portfolio. I hold the view that gold is in a secular bull market that has a long way to go. We are just coming off a bottom in precious metals at the same time that you started this competition. Gold juniors are risker, but provide the biggest gains in the cyclical upmoves. So I decided to load the boat with a canadian gold junior listed on the amex. I've already looked closely at your strategy and it's a good one. You're riding the energy trend with a chunk on biotech. CCj seems to be a play on energy and pm's. Four months is the blink of an eye in investing/trading so timing is extraordinarily important here. I theorized that if gold moves up during the next 8 to 12 weeks and oil runs into any corection at all, that would give me an advantage. As far as yamana itself, I listened to a one hour wecast by the ceo at a gold ceo roundtable. I believe it's a promising company, but riskier because of it's small size. I own 500 shares which is a very small part of my assets. I'm much more diversified in my real porfolio, but I'm very heavily weighted in pm's. Read Jim Roger's new book "Hot Commodities" fwiw

edit: To all, do your own research before you buy or sell anything with real money.

Dan Mezick

07-06-2005, 03:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Four months is the blink of an eye in investing/trading so timing is extraordinarily important here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for this post. For our game here, it's winner take all with no rebuys, and the winner gets there by achieving an absolute return greater than the other participants.

Because of this situation is pays to take a swing with 1,2,3 maybe 4 holdings and stay concentrated in a few rather than diversified in many. As we all know this is a recipe for eventual and total disaster with a real account.

The precious metals are pretty wrung out and maybe the timing is excellent for a low risk hi reward play-- thanks again for your post.

Mason Malmuth

07-06-2005, 05:05 PM

Hi Everyone:

Just a reminder that this is not an official Two Plus Two function.

Best wishes,
Mason

gvibes

07-06-2005, 06:22 PM

I have decided that I will put all my money into a single highly volatile stock, and hope that either puts me in first or last (I want some sort of bragging rights).

EDIT: I bought ~240000 shares of INB, a pharamceutical company that has gone down >40% in the last month, and set a 52 week low today. It has nowhere to go but up!!!

wildwood

07-06-2005, 09:05 PM

Hi gvibes,
Good luck in the contest. Anything can happen. But stocks that are making 52 week lows usually means something is wrong. Would you buy a big share in a poker player who lost 40% of his bankroll in the past month with the idea he's got nowhere to go but up? This is why most people get broke in the market. Enron went from $90 to zero in 6 months. The analysts recommended buying it all the way down until it broke below $15. fwiw

Dan Mezick

07-08-2005, 11:53 AM

The winner of this thing will likely:

1. Trade no more than 4 positions at a time;
2. Make picks that do not require precise intra-day entry;
3. Make picks that are in alignment with emerging trends;
4a. Ride winners, and ADD to winners
4b. Cut losers quickly with stops, limiting them to no more than 5% per position (this is probably way too high);
5. Preserve cash(no rebuys) if no home-run probabilities can be perceived and identified.

The structure of this game does not model the real world at all, and as such one can "throw dimes on it" (criticize or belittle, disrespect). Participanting may actually encourage some very bad trading habits, like concentrating all equity in one position-- a 100% sure recipe for trouble in the real trading world.

The reality is that players with some experience who are capable of some adjustments in light of the structure of the game are going to do very well.

The comments and insights from these players (Wildwood for example) are likely going to be very valuable to market students.

Successful trading is more about beliefs than money per se. It will be interesting to see what specific working beliefs are expressed (implicitly and explicitly) by the leaders that appear at the top of the list every week.

I suggest that starting traders would be wise to believe they "may lose/probably will lose" all their trading capital at least one time during the first 4 years of experience.

Sniper

07-08-2005, 12:54 PM

Dan,

While you are correct that most "contest" winners employ a non-diversified short term strategy; I take issue with your closing comment.

[ QUOTE ]
I suggest that starting traders would be wise to believe they "may lose/probably will lose" all their trading capital at least one time during the first 4 years of experience.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would anyone start trading with an expectation of losing all their trading capital?

With a bit of education, anyone can be a successful investor/trader, if they are willing to put in the required time.

Dan Mezick

07-08-2005, 03:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why would anyone start trading with an expectation of losing all their trading capital?

[/ QUOTE ]

To learn the craft while expecting to pay for the lessons. A trader named mark Douglas has written some trading books dealing in psychology. In these books he advocates setting aside some capital for "tuition"-- he suggests a 40K account.

It is probably not a good idea to expect to win at trading unless you have done an enormous amount of psychological and technical work in advance.

This is why I say "tuition" can be expected to be payable. It's like the difference between Party play money and a real cash game.

Perhaps the biggest curse a trader can have is sudden trading success as he first begins to trade with real money.

Trading is a very dangerous business unless and until you learn the craft. It's a professional skill, like being a lawyer, or an engineer.

Most of the more well-known traders have had at least one experience where they faced an "unexpected" drawdown of 50% or more, or even went broke, in the trading account.

These kinds of episodes really are avoidable, in theory.

In reality, they are some of the most important (and profitable) episodic lessons in the life of a trader.

I'm not sure anyone can just decide to be a competent trader, even if they are willing to put in the required time. There are certain personality/temperament properties that help immensely.

Many of these are the same needed for successful poker.

Sniper

07-08-2005, 03:47 PM

I also highly recommend Mark Douglas' books! As you state, psychology plays a major role in trading and poker success.

However, I still disagree that starting with an expectation of losing is the right mindset. One of the benefits new traders have is the ability to learn from the successes and failures of those that have come before them.

While drawdowns are inevitable, the expectation of going bust as the cost of "tuition" is certainly not the right psychological mindset for a new trader.

Do you not agree that the success "traits" for trading and poker, can be learned, by anyone willing to invest the proper and certainly significant amount of time required to learn them?

tek

07-08-2005, 07:01 PM

OMG, I want my entry fee back /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Dan Mezick

07-08-2005, 07:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you not agree that the success "traits" for trading and poker, can be learned, by anyone willing to invest the proper and certainly significant amount of time required to learn them?

[/ QUOTE ]

...to a certain extent. Yes everyone can find a model for the desireable behaviors and imitate them. A good analogy is talent in a sport, say golf. Some participants just have more. In sports, everyone can enjoy the game without being the leader in innate talent.

The same principle is true with poker and trading, but to a much lesser extent ... because of the money aspect.

The rewards from poker and trading come from developing at least some level of mastery, much like an athlete must. In trading you are rewarded for mastery and punished for anything less than minimal mastery of the key behaviors.

With a commitment to mastery comes the price of mastery, which, if you are committed, is a price you are willing to pay.

The price includes a large time investment, and likely, a substantial money investment also. The time investment can be measured in years.

While it's certainly not a 'good' mindset to expect to lose, expecting to win-- immediately-- may point to a desire to get something for nothing.

It's like an intern surgeon expecting to perform flawlessly in his first 100 operating room experiences. This can happen to talented individuals, but such talent is rare.

Note that the surgeon also went to school, paying substantial tuition as well a large investment of time and effort.

Of course, doctors get internship and residency, while traders have no formal process to guide them as they gain mastery. Each must train and figure it out for himself personally.

The issue of "innate trading talent vs. trader training" is the focus of the Turtles, a group of trading newbies taught trend following techniques by the master Richard Dennis.

Yes people can be trained to do this, but they have to love trading. To love trading IMO it must be in your blood to some extent.

Many of the original turtles no longer trade, while many went on to illustrious trading and money management careers.
.
The Turtles Story (http://www.originalturtles.org/story.htm)

You can learn about the system rules they had to follow here:

http://www.originalturtles.org/system.htm#download

[ QUOTE ]
The Turtle Trading System was a Complete Trading System. Its rules covered every aspect of trading leaving no decisions to the subjective whims of the trader. It had every component of a Complete Trading System.

[/ QUOTE ]

AceHigh

07-08-2005, 07:32 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It has nowhere to go but up!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Or bankrupt...remember dead cats don't bounce.

zephed

07-09-2005, 04:40 AM

Stupid newbie question, say I purchase x shares of a stock. I want to place an order to automatically sell if it hits or goes lower than a certain price. What operation do I perform?

Sell + # of shares + stop (price)
or
sell + # of shares + limit (price)
????

What does each operation accomplish?

Warren Whitmore

07-09-2005, 04:54 PM

Count me in!! Sounds great.

Warren Whitmore

07-09-2005, 05:00 PM

Rats, I dident see this post until just now. Is it too late to join?

zephed

07-09-2005, 09:28 PM

I think you can still sign up.

wildwood

07-09-2005, 10:05 PM

Hi Zephed,

Here is an example. Say you buy stock at $10 a share. You can set a stop loss below the market. Let say $8 stop loss. If the stock trades at $8 or lower; your stop loss immediately becomes a market order to sell your shares at the current market price.

Now let's say you have a profit target of $15 for the same stock. You can enter a limit order to sell at $15. This order will only be executed if the market trades at $15 or higher. You are guaranteed to get your price IF the limit order is executed.

Rob Blackburn

07-10-2005, 01:56 AM

Are the executions of the orders super slow?

I tried to place orders when WPTE was having late day fluctuations trying to grab some profit. I placed the orders and still like 10 minutes later the trades were pending so I kept having to backout so I didn't get wacked.

zephed

07-10-2005, 02:34 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Zephed,

Here is an example. Say you buy stock at $10 a share. You can set a stop loss below the market. Let say $8 stop loss. If the stock trades at $8 or lower; your stop loss immediately becomes a market order to sell your shares at the current market price.

Now let's say you have a profit target of $15 for the same stock. You can enter a limit order to sell at $15. This order will only be executed if the market trades at $15 or higher. You are guaranteed to get your price IF the limit order is executed.

[/ QUOTE ]
So I can have both operations simultaneously working on a single stock then. Thanks!

If I want to sell at a lower bound (I understand it doesn't sell at exactly that price always), I use the sell + stop action.

If I want to sell at a certain upper bound, I use the sell + limit function.

That makes sense. I'm a retard.

Also, you say IF the order is executed. What sorts of events will cause a stop or limit order to not be executed?

wildwood

07-10-2005, 07:46 AM

Hi Zephed,
On your first question: As long as the brokerage allows both orders. Certain situations can arise here. Suppose you bought stock at $10.00 ,entered a stop loss at $9.50 and a limit order at $11.00. Now let's say the stop dropped to your stop loss price and your stock was sold, then rose to your limit price before your limit order was cancelled. You could wind up selling stock you don't own. Not likely, but possible.
On your 2nd question, let's say you and 10 other people have limit orders to sell 100 shares each xyz stock at $15.00 That's a total of 1100 shares. Now let's say the market rises to $15.00 and trades 500 shares at that price and then reverses and falls back to $14.00. You can see that 600 shares will not get filled at the limit price unless the stock goes back up.

Dan Mezick

07-10-2005, 10:41 AM

Anyone can jump in right up to the last day. July 5 was the start date and NOT a deadline.

The plus is you take on no "risk" before you sign up and take positions.

The cons are that others get a running start.

Anyone can participate at any time.

OrangeCat

07-10-2005, 12:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Are the executions of the orders super slow?

[/ QUOTE ]

The delays built into VSE (Virtual Stock Exchange) make it difficult to capture quick intraday moves. The trading rules on the VSE site says:

Market Orders
We strive to execute all Market orders within 2 minutes after placed. It is possible that, during periods of extremely heavy trading, the orders may be delayed slightly longer than 10 minutes.

In my experience it was more like 20 minutes before receiving confirmation of a market order. This was for a few hundred shares of moderately active NYSE issues (around 1 mill shares/day).

Sniper

07-10-2005, 12:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
A good analogy is talent in a sport

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think sports analogies work well when compared to trading or poker, as you can't for example put yourself on a rack and stretch yourself into a 7 foot basketball player, even if you wanted to.

[ QUOTE ]
While it's certainly not a 'good' mindset to expect to lose, expecting to win-- immediately-- may point to a desire to get something for nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a big difference between having a burning desire to succeed and having a winning midset vs thinking your going to win BIG immediately. To quote Colin Powell: "There are no secrets to success. It is a result of preparation, hard work and learning from failure."

[ QUOTE ]
It's like an intern surgeon expecting to perform flawlessly in his first 100 operating room experiences. This can happen to talented individuals, but such talent is rare.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know about you, but I certainly wouldn't want my surgeon going into the operation with the mindset that he was going to botch it up /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[ QUOTE ]
The issue of "innate trading talent vs. trader training" is the focus of the Turtles

[/ QUOTE ]

The turtles are a great example of how anyone with the right training and a good system can perform well.

OrangeCat

07-10-2005, 12:56 PM

Zephed,

What wildwood explained is how it works in the real world. The VSE (Virtual Stock Exchange)is a little different. The trading rules on the VSE site says:

If a VSE user in the Individual Competition was interested in buying stock in Company X, and Company X has a trading volume of 100,000 shares at the time the user was placing a trade, the VSE user would be able to buy up to a maximum of 100,000 shares.

If real life, buying a 100K shares of X would significantly affect the price. But it appears VSE will fill the order using the last price as long as the current total volume that day is sufficient. Another way VSE differs from real life is stop orders. If you set a stop loss, a market order to sell is entered when the price is hit. The price you are filled at could be way below the stop price. If a stop limit order is used the order might not get filled at all. It appears the VSE will treat stop limit and stop market orders the same as long as the size of the order is less than or equal to the current total volume that day.

My point is that the VSE does not function like the real world when trading large blocks of low volume stocks. This is a "feature" someone could use to their advantage in the contest. I’m not complaining about it, just making people aware of the differences since this is supposed to be a fun learning experience. Anyway, as I said earlier, I’m making selections as I am in real life regardless of what others do in the contest.

Dan Mezick

07-10-2005, 02:54 PM

...to a certain extent.

gvibes

07-10-2005, 06:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I have decided that I will put all my money into a single highly volatile stock, and hope that either puts me in first or last (I want some sort of bragging rights).

EDIT: I bought ~240000 shares of INB, a pharamceutical company that has gone down >40% in the last month, and set a 52 week low today. It has nowhere to go but up!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

This software sucks. I put in an order for 240000 (I thought), and it only bought me 400 shares. It's already up 17% too. Probably has to do with low trading volume.

So I'm putting all my money into some other, random, crappy company.

Dan Mezick

07-10-2005, 08:21 PM

gvibes,

Marketwatch says you can only buy 100% of the volume on the day you buy.

zephed

07-11-2005, 06:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Zephed,
On your first question: As long as the brokerage allows both orders. Certain situations can arise here. Suppose you bought stock at $10.00 ,entered a stop loss at $9.50 and a limit order at $11.00. Now let's say the stop dropped to your stop loss price and your stock was sold, then rose to your limit price before your limit order was cancelled. You could wind up selling stock you don't own. Not likely, but possible.
On your 2nd question, let's say you and 10 other people have limit orders to sell 100 shares each xyz stock at $15.00 That's a total of 1100 shares. Now let's say the market rises to $15.00 and trades 500 shares at that price and then reverses and falls back to $14.00. You can see that 600 shares will not get filled at the limit price unless the stock goes back up.

[/ QUOTE ]
I read the link about the turtles that Dan posted above. In it, they said that they typically (or never) used stop or limit orders. They were responsible for monitoring each position and if it hit their exit price they placed a market order. What are the pros and cons of each? Is one generally preferred over the other?

Also, I think I'm going to have to buy a good beginner's book so I can stop bugging you. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Don't worry, I'll use the search function to find recommendations.

zephed

07-11-2005, 07:17 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you not agree that the success "traits" for trading and poker, can be learned, by anyone willing to invest the proper and certainly significant amount of time required to learn them?

[/ QUOTE ]

...to a certain extent. Yes everyone can find a model for the desireable behaviors and imitate them. A good analogy is talent in a sport, say golf. Some participants just have more. In sports, everyone can enjoy the game without being the leader in innate talent.

The same principle is true with poker and trading, but to a much lesser extent ... because of the money aspect.

The rewards from poker and trading come from developing at least some level of mastery, much like an athlete must. In trading you are rewarded for mastery and punished for anything less than minimal mastery of the key behaviors.

With a commitment to mastery comes the price of mastery, which, if you are committed, is a price you are willing to pay.

The price includes a large time investment, and likely, a substantial money investment also. The time investment can be measured in years.

While it's certainly not a 'good' mindset to expect to lose, expecting to win-- immediately-- may point to a desire to get something for nothing.

It's like an intern surgeon expecting to perform flawlessly in his first 100 operating room experiences. This can happen to talented individuals, but such talent is rare.

Note that the surgeon also went to school, paying substantial tuition as well a large investment of time and effort.

Of course, doctors get internship and residency, while traders have no formal process to guide them as they gain mastery. Each must train and figure it out for himself personally.

The issue of "innate trading talent vs. trader training" is the focus of the Turtles, a group of trading newbies taught trend following techniques by the master Richard Dennis.

Yes people can be trained to do this, but they have to love trading. To love trading IMO it must be in your blood to some extent.

Many of the original turtles no longer trade, while many went on to illustrious trading and money management careers.
.
The Turtles Story (http://www.originalturtles.org/story.htm)

You can learn about the system rules they had to follow here:

http://www.originalturtles.org/system.htm#download

[ QUOTE ]
The Turtle Trading System was a Complete Trading System. Its rules covered every aspect of trading leaving no decisions to the subjective whims of the trader. It had every component of a Complete Trading System.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]
I read the article on the turtles. Very interesting, and there were parallels with poker.

Were they basically computing an estimate (or researching to get this value) for the probability that a stock will move up or down (and how much each way), and then setting stop and limit rules so that in the long run they should come out ahead?

It seems similar to the concept of pot odds. With a flush draw with one card to come, I'm a 4:1 dog. I lose 4 times (sell at stop price), and win once (sell at limit price). When I win, the pot (or limit price) must be > 4 times what I have to call (stop price) for the play to be profitable.

Of course figuring out the odds is easy in poker. It looks like they used a rough "heuristic" algorithm to calculate the behavior of a stock. Is this correct?

They also discussed "sizing" which is analagous to the limits you play in poker in relation to your bankroll. I'm a little twisted around with those formulas, I may bring them up in here.

If I'm asking annoying questions just tell me to shut up. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

Dan Mezick

07-11-2005, 08:48 AM

It's ironic that we kicked this off last week and:

1. That's the same week Doyle and his group offer 700MM for WPTE; and

2. It goes up 50%; and

3. It's 100% poker related; and

4. It's basically the absolute killer trade of the week; and

5. None of us had it.

wildwood

07-11-2005, 08:55 AM

[ QUOTE ]
They were responsible for monitoring each position and if it hit their exit price they placed a market order. What are the pros and cons of each? Is one generally preferred over the other?

[/ QUOTE ]
Good question. On the first, the pro is "you don't show the market your hand" and the con is "you have to be glued to the screen during open market hours"
On the second, the pro is "you can place your stop order and turn your monitor off and do something else", the con is "you show the market your hand, but this is not significant unless you are trading size"

Market orders get priority execution over stop orders (or limit orders) so fills should be slightly better.

Sniper

07-11-2005, 11:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
4. It's basically the absolute killer trade of the week

[/ QUOTE ]

Looking like a 1 day wonder.... posted the latest WPTE press release in the more related thread.

Dan Mezick

07-11-2005, 11:26 AM

So maybe it's now, a great short sale.

Dan Mezick

07-11-2005, 08:07 PM

I notice that precious metals and basic materials are the leaders in today's market action. The dollar appears to be peaking; that can't hurt these groups.

That makes AUY look like a pretty astute pick back on July 5, if you ask me.

5-day chart of AUY-- Yamana Gold (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=AUY&t=3m&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=&a=&c=)

dandy_don

07-12-2005, 09:45 AM

I'm in. I've given you guys a week's head start. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

OrangeCat

07-12-2005, 01:48 PM

Those not in the competition who want to see what everyone is holding can look here:

http://game.marketwatch.com/Competitions/CompetitionMembers.asp?ShortName=TwoPlusTwoEvent00 1

The top ten after the first week are:

paral2004lax-ebay 8.12 %
DanMezick 2.80 %
zephed56 2.49 %
orangecat32 2.10 %
shawn 2.09 %
teknalysis 1.75 %
badboybenny_gc 1.70 %
kitaristi0 1.61 %
krazyace5 1.27 %
grb 1.23 %

tek

07-13-2005, 08:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
They were responsible for monitoring each position and if it hit their exit price they placed a market order. What are the pros and cons of each? Is one generally preferred over the other?

[/ QUOTE ]
Good question. On the first, the pro is "you don't show the market your hand" and the con is "you have to be glued to the screen during open market hours"
On the second, the pro is "you can place your stop order and turn your monitor off and do something else", the con is "you show the market your hand, but this is not significant unless you are trading size"

Market orders get priority execution over stop orders (or limit orders) so fills should be slightly better.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't have to be glued to the screen: QuoTrek (http://www.quotrek.com/features/default.asp)

tek

07-13-2005, 09:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
On the second the con is "you show the market your hand, but this is not significant unless you are trading size".

[/ QUOTE ]

Size is relative to the issue you are trading...

I prefer mental stop losses to actual stop loss orders on all my trades. Any thoughts on this?

Dan Mezick

07-13-2005, 11:07 PM

Lawrence McMillan says the same re: mental stops.

Discussion of "Mental" Stops
http://www.daytradersbulletin.com/html/protective_stops.html

Trading Commandments
http://www.thestreet.com/c/rs/20030226/transcript.html

Sniper

07-14-2005, 02:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You don't have to be glued to the screen: QuoTrek

[/ QUOTE ]

Quotrek is one example of the Ultimate in "glued to the screen", as your screen goes with you whereever you are.

wildwood

07-14-2005, 10:11 AM

I just want to add to the discussion on mental stops. They are fine, but there is one important point to consider. When your trading in the market, above all, you have to know yourself. If you're long and the stock falls to your mental stop, it's very easy to adjust the mental stop lower and lower and lower. All of a sudden what would have been a small loss turns into a whopper. Always decide your uncle point before you put the trade on because once you're in, you lose your objectivity. Iron discipline is key whether your stop is mental or physical. fwiw

Dan Mezick

07-14-2005, 11:11 AM

wildwood,

Good advice here. I believe it applies to seasones and experienced players only.

Even then, as part of the pre-trade documentation i believe you must write down all the boundaries of the trade such that the "mental" stop is more than a mere thought.

I believe mental-stops can be a major "leak" in the trading game of new players.

I agree completely with your post.

Sniper

07-14-2005, 01:24 PM

Not honoring your stops and doubling down on losers are two of the biggest mistakes that newbie traders make. Right up there with selecting the wrong stocks at the wrong time.

kitaristi0

07-14-2005, 04:19 PM

Yeah. Seems I'm up to number 2 in the rankings.

jdoe

07-16-2005, 02:55 PM

I am JPKRUSE

Dan Mezick

07-17-2005, 03:45 PM

....he has a near 20% gain and no holdings.

Here's the report:

COMPETITIONS >>

Competition ID: TwoPlusTwoEvent001
Member Login:

Total Equity 597,829.90 Total Return 19.57%
Cash 597,829.90 Today's Return 0.00%
Margin 0 This Week's Return 17.49%
Interest Earned 175.94 This Month's Return 19.55%
Interest Paid 0.00

Symbol L/S Quantity Cost Curr Price Change Curr Value Gain/Loss % Chg
(No records found)

WHo can provide more information on the holdings that produced this incredible 10-day return?

jdoe

07-17-2005, 08:01 PM

I just made 3 trades (all shorts) that went well.

1 7/13/2005 8:13:00 PM 7/14/2005 9:02:00 AM Sell Short DTLK 72733 Market Open 4.27 8
2 7/14/2005 11:42:00 AM 7/14/2005 12:02:00 PM Buy To Cover DTLK 72733 Market 4.15 8
3 7/14/2005 3:17:00 PM 7/15/2005 9:01:00 AM Sell Short ELTK 181000 Market Open 2.75 8
4 7/15/2005 12:17:00 PM 7/15/2005 12:43:00 PM Buy To Cover ELTK 181000 Market 2.49 8
5 7/15/2005 2:12:00 PM 7/15/2005 2:34:00 PM Sell Short CLWT 110300 Market 4.78 8
6 7/15/2005 2:50:00 PM 7/15/2005 3:40:00 PM Buy To Cover CLWT 110300 Market Close 4.4 8

Dan Mezick

07-17-2005, 11:15 PM

That's an impressive 2-week return, nice job! Thanks for posting the trades.

I notice your lead would be even greater if you committed 100% of your equity to all of the trades. The first trade, which I see required $310.6K, risked a mere 62% of the $500K starting account equity.

These picks all had huge volume relative to avg.volume, and all were under $5.

Care to share some detail on the selection criteria for these 3 short sale selections?

Sniper

07-17-2005, 11:47 PM

Nice trades.. looks like hes playing overreaction to news.

Added 97K to his port with less than 8 hours of total exposure to the market... 12K/Hr nice /images/graemlins/smile.gif

jdoe

07-18-2005, 02:43 AM

1. I looked for a stock with a crapload of volume under $10 up big for the day.

wanted to commit 100% to every trade but i was doing it from work so i didn't have a lot of time to do it.

i just set it to cover at the end of the day or whenever i had a chance to log in.

I spent a total of 3 minutes on all 3 trades.

Dan Mezick

07-18-2005, 07:20 AM

97K in 3 minutes.

That's roughly 33K a minute or 1.9 million per hour.

Annually, based on 1780 hours per year (everyone needs a little time off) that's 3.5 billion a year annualized.

You are making just about everyone on earth look like an underachiever if the selection and trading process is consistently repeatable over time.

All you need is 500K in cash to start with.

Dan Mezick

07-18-2005, 08:06 AM

It's nice to see this post in flames now. I'm wondering what kind of return the winner of this contest is going to achieve.

If it's 50% or higher, that will get ALOT of attention, and likely inject alot of life into this sleepy forum.

jdoe

07-18-2005, 01:11 PM

I will manage the 2+2 hedge fund

Dan Mezick

07-18-2005, 01:54 PM

Perfect comeback line!!

Yes. We at the The 2+2 Hedge Fund (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=tv&Number=1514016&Forum=Al l_Forums&Words="hedge"&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Main=1514016&Search=true&wh ere=bodysub&Name=11333&daterange=1&newerval=100&ne wertype=w&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyprev=#Post15140 16) have been waiting for you.

David Sklansky is your co-manager of the fund.

When I wrote this post originally, I was tweaking David on the nose about EV, math, gambling, and the applicability of poker to the "real" world.

Now, I really do think this hedge fund would seriously kick some ass.

Again, great comeback line, truly a classic !!

Sniper

07-18-2005, 11:55 PM

If you truly think you have what it takes to run a fund, and want to dip your toe in the waters, you should seriously consider setting up a virtual port on Marketocracy.

They reward the top performers by running an aggregated actual fund based on their trades and actually compensate them from the fund management fees.

The fund symbol is MOFQX and you can get more info on their website.

jdoe

07-19-2005, 12:51 AM

Past performance is not indicative of future results. People can and do lose money blah blah prospectus blah blah.

This is my new 5 point system for stock market success.

Step 1. Pick a stock or something
Step 2. Buy it or short it or whatever.
Step 3. Later, when your boss is not looking, sell it or cover it if your too short or something.
Step 4. If the trade has lost money, Simply um….er…uh…uh… I’ll get back to you on that one.
Step 5. Profit!

jdoe

07-19-2005, 01:09 AM

1. No position can exceed 25% of your total portfolio value.

2. Half your portfolio must be comprised of positions under 10% each.

3. Funds that do not pass the quarterly diversification test will be disqualified from the Marketocracy Performance Rankings.

4. You must fold JT suited under the gun! ALWAYS!

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ ZZZZZZ

Sniper

07-19-2005, 02:00 AM

These rules mimmick the rules under which mutual funds must comply.

tek

07-19-2005, 07:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
1. No position can exceed 25% of your total portfolio value.

2. Half your portfolio must be comprised of positions under 10% each.

3. Funds that do not pass the quarterly diversification test will be disqualified from the Marketocracy Performance Rankings.

[/ QUOTE ]

1. f that
2. ditto
3. ditto

Dan Mezick

07-19-2005, 10:43 AM

For those interested in developing mechanical trading systems, I post these links.

If you have really thought about risk and EV in poker, and/or done alot of trading with a mechanical system, then you will find this work a great read.

The PDF is downloadable and free. I found the text to be very interesting from the point of view of trader AND poker player.

I hope this is helpful to you.

Links:
http://www.tradelabstrategies.com/

http://www.tradelabstrategies.com/customers/release301.htm

jdoe

07-20-2005, 02:20 PM

i spent 25 minutes on this trade.

BUY YAHOO @ 33.60 ish

gunna check it in an hour if i am up 2-3% i will sell. I may hold overnight to see if there is a small bump tomorrow.

stop loss at 32.50 ish

Dan Mezick

07-24-2005, 09:50 PM

It's interesting to see that the leader has a roughtly 10% gain while the least-performer is down somewhere in the range of 15%.

This is anyone's game after 2 weeks. No one is running away with it....yet.

BadBoyBenny

07-28-2005, 10:55 PM

Dan,

How do you see rankings?

Thanks,

Benny

Dan Mezick

07-29-2005, 02:33 PM

1. Sign up for the event

2. Go to: game.marketwatch.com

3. Click the Rankings tab at the top of that page.

You'll see me near the bottom there, especially tomorrow /images/graemlins/wink.gif

skierdude1000

08-01-2005, 03:11 AM

I'm in... time to start buying and selling! I'm really behind you guys...

Dan Mezick

08-10-2005, 04:37 PM

Here's the stats for the top 10 as of Tuesday, August 9th, with 6 days to go to the 1-month mark:

Rank Username Net Worth % Return # Trans
1 jpkruse $732,675.60 46.54 % 24
2 nhamstra $551,609.85 10.32 % 2
3 badboybenny_gc $546,825.12 9.37 % 7
4 nikir2003 $528,806.10 5.76 % 59
5 kansas_rounder $521,279.84 4.26 % 17
6 stoli7 $519,715.74 3.94 % 2
7 shawn $514,622.09 2.92 % 4
8 warren.whitmore $510,825.61 2.17 % 5
9 zephed56 $510,752.23 2.15 % 19
10 tomonopoly $510,297.63 2.06 % 7

jpkruse is up over 45%. In less than a month.
On 500K, that's alot of green.

nhamstra is up 10.32 % on 2 trades.

badboybenny_gc is up 9.37 % on 7 trades.

These returns have been generated in less than a month.

jpkruse, how about posting those 24 trades? Let's all admit this is a pretty darned impressive performance.

BadBoyBenny

08-10-2005, 08:31 PM

I looked at his trades before he took #1 and knew I was blown out. He shorted something that took a dive with almost all of his money.

Obviously he is either brilliant, lucky, or trading with some insider knowledge.

jdoe

08-10-2005, 09:57 PM

I just picked up another 38K in trades today.
Can you say hedge fund?

http://images5.theimagehosting.com/jdoe.JPG (http://www.theimagehosting.com)

jdoe

08-10-2005, 10:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I looked at his trades before he took #1 and knew I was blown out. He shorted something that took a dive with almost all of his money.

Obviously he is either brilliant, lucky, or trading with some insider knowledge.

[/ QUOTE ]

Brilliant? Don't think so
Lucky Maybe
insider knowledge?

This made me chuckle, ....yes I am going to use inside information to win a stock market game on 2+2.

Dan Mezick

08-10-2005, 11:04 PM

Hi There,

I think we can assume some of these game-trades have corresponding real-world trades in real accounts.

jdoe

08-10-2005, 11:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hi There,

I think we can assume some of these game-trades have corresponding real-world trades in real accounts.

[/ QUOTE ]

nope.

I own 15 shares of XRX that i got as a gift 4 years ago. I don't play the market.

jdoe aka jpkruse

Dan Mezick

08-11-2005, 10:58 AM

How about cutting and pasting your trades to date into a post here? That's a pretty incredible return for 1 month-- over 45%.

Many will enjoy examining the trades.

Some of the other traders are enjoying very high 1-day and 1-week momentum. You're #1 even in the short-term, and you are getting chased closely, in the shorter term views. Take a look:

Weekly Rankings : TwoPlusTwoEvent001 Competition
Rank Username Net Worth % Return # Trans
1 jpkruse@yahoo.com $771,308.06 5.27 % 28
2 dandy_don_17@yahoo.com $522,765.25 2.88 % 29
3 DanMezick $481,339.35 2.59 % 14
4 grb@taigabridge.com $510,829.11 2.33 % 7
5 ShakRampage@aol.com $440,726.26 2.33 % 1
6 kansas_rounder@yahoo.com $529,993.82 1.67 % 17
7 deflep1@sbcglobal.net $516,000.66 1.42 % 5
8 badboybenny_gc@hotmail.com $554,356.04 1.38 % 7
9 warren.whitmore@comcast.net $517,590.84 1.32 % 5
10 teknalysis $499,800.37 1.25 % 15

Emperor

08-11-2005, 06:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I just picked up another 38K in trades today.
Can you say hedge fund?

http://images5.theimagehosting.com/jdoe.JPG (http://www.theimagehosting.com)

[/ QUOTE ]

I really like your strategy here.

Historically stock price declines happen faster and with more severity than upward trends. I'm not sure why Buffet isn't doing this if he can't find anything to buy in todays market.

jdoe

08-24-2005, 08:27 PM

Anyone want to loan me $500,000?

Dan Mezick

08-24-2005, 11:25 PM

....only 38 trades. This is phenomenal return.

Rank Username Net Worth % Return # Trans
1 jpkruse $836,411.04 67.28 % 38
2 nhamstra $567,687.74 13.54 % 2
3 badboybenny_gc $550,677.03 10.14 % 7
4 nikir2003 $535,059.13 7.01 % 59
5 deflep1 $525,998.72 5.20 % 5
6 stoli7 $519,850.65 3.97 % 4
7 dandy_don_17 $516,192.87 3.24 % 34
8 grb $511,883.00 2.38 % 10
9 kansas_rounder $509,650.65 1.93 % 20
10 James_Boston $507,786.85 1.56 % 7

I wont lend you 500K but maybe you would like to trade it for me for 20% of any profit you earn over the T-Bill rate.

67% plus. That's a real nice return.

Also, I notice the 3 months are not up yet.

dandy_don

08-25-2005, 11:04 AM

I can't figure out if I got screwed or if I screwed myself...

I placed a sell on YRK (12,600 shares) this morning before I left for work at market price and the stock opened at $56.24, up some $14, but I only received credit for a sell at $40.83; that's a difference of $194,166.00.

Trade #47:
47 8/25/2005 6:26:00 AM 8/25/2005 9:01:00 AM Sell YRK 12600 Market Open 40.83 8

jdoe

08-26-2005, 12:10 AM

http://images5.theimagehosting.com/stock2.1.JPG (http://www.theimagehosting.com)

jdoe

08-26-2005, 12:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
....only 38 trades. This is phenomenal return.

I wont lend you 500K but maybe you would like to trade it for me for 20% of any profit you earn over the T-Bill rate.

67% plus. That's a real nice return.

Also, I notice the 3 months are not up yet.

[/ QUOTE ]

You got a deal

Dan Mezick

08-31-2005, 08:44 PM

It appears I may have an excellent chance to win this thing in the home stretch, by doing absolutely nothing.

jdoe

08-31-2005, 11:07 PM

if by win you mean 2nd place, then yes.

Dan Mezick

09-01-2005, 09:43 AM

Joe,

I'm going to post on CCJ. It's a uranium play. It is now breaking out to new all-time highs on heavy volume after peaking and going through a period of congestion.

All the miserable people (sellers) are now gone. The energy bill just passed. It has huge goodies for nuclear power.

The catalyst here is Katrina.

I now have a legit shot at you. Your performance is truly incredible and I'd love to learn more about your methodology. You appear the clear winner, as of today.

We still have the turn and river to come, on this competition.

Please forgive me if I suck out by the deadline.

Dan Mezick

09-02-2005, 06:48 AM

Here they are. Congrats to "jpkruse" for the incredible lead and 83%-plus return he has going in position #1:

Total Value Rankings : TwoPlusTwoEvent001 Competition

Rank Username Net Worth % Return # Trans
1 jpkruse $915,826.77 83.17 % 41
2 badboybenny_gc $568,598.80 13.72 % 7
3 paral2004lax-ebay $535,403.45 7.08 % 9
4 stoli7 $534,916.95 6.98 % 4
5 nikir2003 $534,515.40 6.90 % 59
6 dandy_don_17 $527,075.10 5.42 % 38
7 deflep1 $524,220.86 4.84 % 5
8 teknalysis $515,234.78 3.05 % 18
9 DanMezick $514,471.72 2.89 % 14
10 grb $512,275.54 2.46 % 10

Stoli7

09-02-2005, 07:45 AM

83% /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

Nice result! /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Kama45

09-02-2005, 08:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Here they are. Congrats to "jpkruse" for the incredible lead and 83%-plus return he has going in position #1:

Total Value Rankings : TwoPlusTwoEvent001 Competition

Rank Username Net Worth % Return # Trans
1 jpkruse $915,826.77 83.17 % 41
2 badboybenny_gc $568,598.80 13.72 % 7
3 paral2004lax-ebay $535,403.45 7.08 % 9
4 stoli7 $534,916.95 6.98 % 4
5 nikir2003 $534,515.40 6.90 % 59
6 dandy_don_17 $527,075.10 5.42 % 38
7 deflep1 $524,220.86 4.84 % 5
8 teknalysis $515,234.78 3.05 % 18
9 DanMezick $514,471.72 2.89 % 14
10 grb $512,275.54 2.46 % 10

[/ QUOTE ]

How did the S & P perform during this time period?

Dan Mezick

09-02-2005, 02:01 PM

Great comeback. Funny !!

jdoe

09-08-2005, 12:35 AM

I should be just over a mill at the end of the week

Dan Mezick

09-11-2005, 08:14 AM

Read 'em and weep. jdoe is the man. There is about two weeks left-- catch him if you can.

Those that have not jumped in are encouraged to do so.

Here's some info on the event structure and the current scores:

TwoPlusTwoEvent001 (TwoPlusTwo Stock Trading Competition Summer/Fall 2005)
Competition Summary
Start Date 7/5/2005
Ending Date 9/30/2005
Starting Cash $500,000.00
Show Real Name In Ranking? No
Allow User to Reset Portfolio? No
Keep all member portfolios public? Yes
Allow Selling Short? Yes
Allow Limit Orders? Yes
Allow Stop Orders? Yes
Allow Margin? No
Minimum Trade Price $2.00
Maximum Trade Price No Maximum
Maximum % Trading Volume 100.00%
Commission per Trade $8.00
Credit Interest Rate 4.00%
Debit Interest Rate 6.00%

RESULTS

jpkruse leads with a 92.13% return. This is a 90-day event that ends on September 30.

Total Value Rankings : TwoPlusTwoEvent001 Competition
Rank Username Net Worth % Return # Trans

1 jpkruse $960,655.96 92.13 % 45
2 badboybenny_gc $565,734.61 13.15 % 7
3 paral2004lax-ebay $551,536.76 10.31 % 9
4 stoli7 $537,709.58 7.54 % 4
5 teknalysis $534,704.85 6.94 % 18
6 dandy_don_17 $533,701.84 6.74 % 45
7 DanMezick $531,354.43 6.27 % 14
8 zephed56 $518,033.46 3.61 % 21
9 deflep1 $517,589.66 3.52 % 5
10 nikir2003 $516,571.99 3.31 % 59

jdoe

09-14-2005, 01:49 AM

check and mate

Total Equity 1,063,687.11 Total Return 112.74%

bob2007

09-15-2005, 11:23 AM

Wow that's amazing man. congrats. How does this compare to your real money trading?

Dan Mezick

09-20-2005, 08:06 AM

Our 3-month trading contest here is entering the home stretch, with only 10 days left til the end of September.

Trader "jpkruse" ("jdoe" here on 2+2) appears unbeatable with an absolute to-date 11-week return of over 112%.

Congratulations to this trader. This is a phenomenal performance. Play money or not, he leads the pack.

The closest runners-up have achieved returns in the 25% area, very respectable yet totally overshadowed by the shocking results of "jpkruse" who has more than doubled his stake in less than 3 months.

Is this trader lucky, or good? 46 trades and 112% return in less than 3 months.

Rank Username Net Worth % Return # Trans

1 jpkruse $1,064,269.68 112.85 % 46

The top 10:

Total Value Rankings : TwoPlusTwoEvent001 Competition
Rank Username Net Worth % Return # Trans
1 jpkruse $1,064,269.68 112.85 % 46
2 nikir2003 $623,960.66 24.79 % 59

3 paral2004lax-ebay $621,936.49 24.39 % 9
4 stoli7 $566,102.31 13.22 % 4
5 ShakRampage $558,114.01 11.62 % 1
6 kitaristi0 $557,795.09 11.56 % 5
7 badboybenny_gc $556,185.49 11.24 % 7
8 nhamstra $551,784.81 10.36 % 2
9 DanMezick $537,155.14 7.43 % 14
10 dandy_don_17 $533,876.39 6.78 % 48

It's good to hear from Mr "jdoe" about his trades. I know he was all-in on some big short positions (probably in retail and airlines) that truly worked out.

A few sentences posted on how he did it (themes, tactics etc) are sure to be a most interesting read.

Lastly, it is NOT over.

It is not too late to take a few big stabs at some big trades. With the leader so far ahead, the rest of us have nothing to lose by adopting this tactic at the end.

wildwood

09-30-2005, 05:40 PM

Congratulations to JPKruse! Well done. Contest over. 640K was the best I could manage. I liked JP's strategy. Very creative and very ingenious. If you annualize the return, it's even more impressive. All the best.

Dan Mezick

09-30-2005, 11:16 PM

Incredible return from JP. Awesome job. No one else even comes close. Congrats to the Champion.

jdoe

10-01-2005, 12:43 AM

Here is my transaction history.

I would have had a lot more if I held my NWAC short a few more weeks.

1 7/13/2005 8:13:00 PM 7/14/2005 9:02:00 AM Sell Short DTLK 72733 Market Open 4.27 8
2 7/14/2005 11:42:00 AM 7/14/2005 12:02:00 PM Buy To Cover DTLK 72733 Market 4.15 8
4 7/14/2005 3:17:00 PM 7/15/2005 9:01:00 AM Sell Short ELTK 181000 Market Open 2.75 8
5 7/15/2005 12:17:00 PM 7/15/2005 12:43:00 PM Buy To Cover ELTK 181000 Market 2.49 8
6 7/15/2005 2:12:00 PM 7/15/2005 2:34:00 PM Sell Short CLWT 110300 Market 4.78 8
7 7/15/2005 2:50:00 PM 7/15/2005 3:40:00 PM Buy To Cover CLWT 110300 Market Close 4.4 8
8 7/18/2005 12:00:00 PM 7/18/2005 12:26:00 PM Sell Short CAFE 42189 Market 14.17 8
9 7/20/2005 11:59:00 AM 7/20/2005 12:19:00 PM Buy To Cover CAFE 42189 Market 12.91 8
10 7/20/2005 1:04:00 PM 7/20/2005 1:31:00 PM Buy YHOO 19325 Market 33.59 8
12 7/22/2005 11:01:00 AM 7/22/2005 11:22:00 AM Sell YHOO 19325 Market 33.43 8
13 7/22/2005 12:04:00 PM 7/22/2005 12:26:00 PM Sell Short GEPT 108000 Market 5.91 8
17 8/4/2005 10:45:00 AM 8/4/2005 11:06:00 AM Buy To Cover GEPT 108000 Market 6.43 8
18 8/4/2005 10:48:00 AM 8/4/2005 11:14:00 AM Sell Short PVLS 680 Market 11.5 8
19 8/4/2005 11:10:00 AM 8/4/2005 11:31:00 AM Sell Short PVLS 30000 Market 10.4 8
20 8/4/2005 11:15:00 AM 8/4/2005 11:38:00 AM Sell Short ORBT 15000 Market 13.05 8
21 8/4/2005 11:19:00 AM 8/4/2005 11:47:00 AM Sell Short PVLS 2800 Market 11.29 8
22 8/4/2005 11:25:00 AM 8/4/2005 11:47:00 AM Sell Short ORBT 500 Market 12.9 8
23 8/4/2005 12:44:00 PM 8/4/2005 1:06:00 PM Sell Short PVLS 3105 Market 11.79 8
24 8/4/2005 12:50:00 PM 8/4/2005 1:14:00 PM Buy To Cover ORBT 15500 Market 12.51 8
25 8/4/2005 1:56:00 PM 8/4/2005 2:19:00 PM Sell Short MEMY 65000 Market 3.224 8
27 8/4/2005 3:13:00 PM 8/9/2005 8:58:00 AM Buy To Cover MEMY 65000 Limit at $3.15 2.9 8
28 8/4/2005 3:18:00 PM 8/9/2005 10:05:00 AM Buy To Cover PVLS 36585 Limit at $9.5 9.35 8
29 8/9/2005 10:50:00 AM 8/9/2005 11:14:00 AM Sell Short MACE 205211 Market 3.25 8
30 8/9/2005 2:50:00 PM 8/9/2005 3:14:00 PM Buy To Cover MACE 205211 Market 2.93 8
31 8/10/2005 9:29:00 AM 8/10/2005 9:54:00 AM Sell Short ATEA 30000 Market 10 8
33 8/10/2005 10:32:00 AM 8/10/2005 10:58:00 AM Buy CMED 22000 Market 17 8
34 8/10/2005 11:21:00 AM 8/10/2005 11:47:00 AM Sell CMED 22000 Market 17.39 8
32 8/10/2005 10:30:00 AM 8/10/2005 12:35:00 PM Buy To Cover ATEA 30000 Limit at $9.1 9 8
35 8/11/2005 9:21:00 AM 8/11/2005 9:47:00 AM Sell Short BCON 265000 Market 2.85 8
36 8/11/2005 9:58:00 AM 8/11/2005 10:30:00 AM Buy To Cover BCON 265000 Stop at $2.8 2.8 8
37 8/11/2005 10:53:00 AM 8/11/2005 11:48:00 AM Sell Short NT 251453 Limit at $3.11 3.11 8
39 8/18/2005 11:52:00 AM 8/18/2005 12:19:00 PM Buy To Cover NT 251453 Market 3.12 8
40 8/18/2005 12:26:00 PM 8/18/2005 12:51:00 PM Sell Short CTTY 48500 Market 16.02 8
42 8/19/2005 10:45:00 AM 8/19/2005 11:06:00 AM Buy To Cover CTTY 48500 Market 15.62 8
43 8/22/2005 9:38:00 AM 8/22/2005 10:02:00 AM Sell Short PANC 72205 Market 11.1 8
44 8/22/2005 12:36:00 PM 8/22/2005 12:58:00 PM Buy To Cover PANC 72205 Market 10.65 8
45 8/22/2005 1:01:00 PM 8/22/2005 1:22:00 PM Sell Short ALO 33914 Market 24.59 8
47 8/23/2005 9:08:00 AM 8/23/2005 9:31:00 AM Buy To Cover ALO 33914 Market 24.52 8
48 8/25/2005 10:52:00 AM 8/25/2005 11:14:00 AM Sell Short AMTA 168989 Market 4.95 8
49 8/25/2005 11:18:00 AM 8/25/2005 2:12:00 PM Buy To Cover AMTA 168989 Limit at $4.55 4.52 8
50 8/29/2005 12:35:00 PM 8/29/2005 12:58:00 PM Sell Short OSTE 162093 Market 5.61 8
53 9/2/2005 2:06:00 PM 9/2/2005 2:26:00 PM Buy To Cover OSTE 162093 Market 5.56 8
58 9/6/2005 12:39:00 AM 9/6/2005 8:57:00 AM Sell Short NWAC 175000 Limit at $3.63 3.63 8
54 9/6/2005 12:36:00 AM 9/6/2005 9:01:00 AM Sell Short NWAC 50000 Market Open 3.7 8
55 9/6/2005 12:37:00 AM 9/6/2005 9:01:00 AM Sell Short NWAC 26315 Market Open 3.7 8
59 9/8/2005 12:02:00 AM 9/13/2005 12:53:00 PM Buy To Cover NWAC 251315 Limit at $3.14 3.07