Flush draw and overcard, check and call flop?

[Bill Lumberg]

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
3 folds, MP calls, MP+1 calls, 1 fold, cutoff calls, 2 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: (4.5 SB) J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Hero checks, MP bets, MP+1 folds, cutoff folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Hero checks, MP checks.

River: (3.25 BB) K /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Hero bets, MP folds.

[QTip]

I lead the flop.

[Bill Lumberg]

[ QUOTE ]
I lead the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's my reasoning for not. I've determined my hand to be worth about $2.50 (I'm still thinking about how to determine equity quickly and accurately /images/graemlins/smirk.gif) If I check and MP bets and you get a caller or two, then your equity jumps above $4 and you raise. If someone in later position bets, you go for the overcalls.

[QTip]

Why would you think anyone else would bet? This flop is really quite raggy. Everyone may just fold to your bet.

[imported_leader]

I would lead the flop and the turn once two have folded on the flop. I think you have a significant chance to pick up the pot in both spots. Plus you have a huge draw on the turn. (flush draw + gutshot + overcard) When the king hits on the river you should continue to bet.

[hobbsmann]

I was also going to say lead the flop. I would do this mainly because of the combination of how much equity you have (~13 outs) and the fact the flop is so ugly you will probably be able to take the pot down a fair amount of the time.

[Bill Lumberg]

[ QUOTE ]
I was also going to say lead the flop. I would do this mainly because of the combination of how much equity you have (~13 outs) and the fact the flop is so ugly you will probably be able to take the pot down a fair amount of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, in my equity analysis, I fail to take into account fold equity and implied odds if I do hit my hand? This jacks it up a lot here? I'm really trying to learn how to identify the true worth of hands.

[nepenthe]

In my earlier days I would usually bet out this flop, what with folding and calling equity and cleaning up outs etc. Nowadays I mix it up. Bet/calling, bet/3-betting, c/calling, c/raising all have their merits and drawbacks depending on the situation. Here, given the way you played it, I think a flop c/r has merit once everyone else folds, followed by a continuation turn bet esp. now that you've picked up a gutshot draw to boot.

Given that you c/called the flop and checked the turn, the river bet is quite easy, although you may also consider inducing a bluff depending on reads.

[Nate tha' Great]

I lead out on that flop every time and twice on Mondays.

[Bluffoon]

I bet draws for the already mentioned reasons unless the flop or game texture leads me to believe that there is a significant chance I will get raised if I bet, especially if I think the raise will come from an early position and drop potential callers.

No one has yet mentioned that playing draws aggressively is a good way to keep your opponents from labeling you as weak-tight.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
No one has yet mentioned that playing draws aggressively is a good way to keep your opponents from labeling you as weak-tight.

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It also is a convenient way to mix up your play. I bet at this flop (or one where the J is replace with an A). I don't bet at a similar flop that's more coordinated or has a K in it or has been raised PF. Not that I think there's that much EV difference, it's just a convenient way to help disguise my hand.

[hobbsmann]

[ QUOTE ]

It also is a convenient way to mix up your play. I bet at this flop (or one where the J is replace with an A). I don't bet at a similar flop that's more coordinated or has a K in it or has been raised PF. Not that I think there's that much EV difference, it's just a convenient way to help disguise my hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm less inclined the lead a flop like this if the J was replaced with an A. I feel at SS a lot of donks will limp an Axo, but are going to fold Jxo, so the chance that the above flop replaced with an A hits somebody is greater and thus you are less likely to take down the pot with a single bet.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm less inclined the lead a flop like this if the J was replaced with an A. I feel at SS a lot of donks will limp an Axo, but are going to fold Jxo, so the chance that the above flop replaced with an A hits somebody is greater and thus you are less likely to take down the pot with a single bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok, so here are my counterthoughts:

If I had to choose between a J-high flop and an A-high flop with 3 limpers in the pot with me, I'd rather bet at the A-high. With the J-high flop, I'm going to get people who will call with as little as a single overcard and a backdoor draw or two. With the A-high flop, I have an excellent scare card and people are less inclined to call without an A in their hand.

There's another important factor here that has to do with the "It's good enough to call then you might as well bet" saying. I'm not a fan of that particular saying but there's a situation that's related that you need to be able to recognize - places where stronger hands will bet but not raise. In those situations, you should almost always bet if your hand is worth a call.

With an A-high flop, an Ax hand is virtually always going to bet at the flop and you're going to put in a bet anyway. But when nobody has an A, it's going to get checked through and you'll miss an excellent opportunity to steal the pot.

[hobbsmann]

[ QUOTE ]

Ok, so here are my counterthoughts:

If I had to choose between a J-high flop and an A-high flop with 3 limpers in the pot with me, I'd rather bet at the A-high. With the J-high flop, I'm going to get people who will call with as little as a single overcard and a backdoor draw or two. With the A-high flop, I have an excellent scare card and people are less inclined to call without an A in their hand.


[/ QUOTE ]
So this is a point that I was thinking about when I typed up my above response. I agree that on an A high flop you have a better chance of taking down the pot by betting out if people don't hold an ace, but there is also a higher percent chance that one of the limpers is holding an ace compared to a J. Also on an A high flop if you do get called you've got to think that your K outs are no longer good and thus the value of your hand is further decreased.

Say you take the exact same lines in both the J and A high flops (ie. bet out into 3 limpers) I'm really not sure which situation you will win a higher percentage of the time. On one hand, people are probably going to call more often on the flop with mediocre hands in the J high situation, but you have more equity there because of your K outs and by showing strength on both the flop and turn you'll get people to fold a wide range of non-J holdings by the turn a fair amount. In the case of the A high flop, you will probably get more folds on the flop, but when you do get called you probably have less equity and seemingly have less of a chance of winning the pot if it gets past the flop (I think I buy your argument of people being scared of aces).

It would be interesting if somebody could quantify the relative value of leading into 3 limpers in these two situations.

[Grease]

I bet the flop 99.99% of the time.