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View Full Version : Odds for hitting openenden straight- or flush draw on the flop.


Have
06-27-2005, 01:02 PM
Hey

It's a holdem question.

I know if I have a suited connector I have approx. 1:8 for hitting a openended straight and approx. 1:8 for hitting a flush on the flop.

How do I calculate the odds for hitting either the openended straight draw or the flush draw or nothing at all on the flop with a suited connector?.

BruceZ
06-27-2005, 01:36 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Hey

It's a holdem question.

I know if I have a suited connector I have approx. 1:8 for hitting a openended straight and approx. 1:8 for hitting a flush on the flop.

How do I calculate the odds for hitting either the openended straight draw or the flush draw or nothing at all on the flop with a suited connector?.

[/ QUOTE ]

For suited connectors that can make 4 straights (54s-JTs), the probability of flopping a flush draw or 8-out straight draw is 19.1% or 4.2-to-1. The calculation is tricky as you have to either count the number of flush draws alone, and add that to the total number of straight draws, or count the number of straight draws alone, and add that to the total number of flush draws. The calculations in this post (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=355216&page=&view=&sb =5&o=&vc=1) are accurate and have been verified several ways by several different people.

maddog2030
06-28-2005, 11:06 PM
Well I saw you guys working on these kind of complicated probability questions for flops in holdem by hand and thought you were insane. So I wrote a little program today when I was bored at work. It calculates all possible flops and all possible draws given a set of hole cards. I've used it on simple cases that have been calculated many times and it agrees there. It also agrees on in this case (0.19117346938775510204081632653061). I'll see if I can dig up some more complicated situations and see if it agrees.

Also, if it seems to be giving everything correctly, perhaps we can use it to work on a list of commonly asked %'s and sticky them if you want. Just a suggestion since it's a lot easier to plug it into this than try to consider 15 different situations by hand to solve just 1 problem.

maddog2030
06-28-2005, 11:31 PM
Oh, let me just say, it calculates EVERY possibility. This includes hitting a pair + OESD and things along those lines.