Daily Hand Post: an interesting spot with AJs [Archive]

jason_t

06-27-2005, 02:16 AM

Villain is 74/7/.9 after 50 hands.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: I am Button with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, I raise, 2 folds, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, I call, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets, I....

toss

06-27-2005, 02:18 AM

I'm thinking raise to knock out UTG+1 and check behind on the river UI. I'm placing MP2 on a flush draw.

Willluck

06-27-2005, 02:26 AM

this is an easy raise, IMO.

Shillx

06-27-2005, 02:29 AM

Too bad you don't have 2500 hands on this guy since he has a .9 AF

Cases can be made for both raising and calling but I like rasing since there is a good chance that he has a draw in this spot and we would like UTG+1 to fold a pair if that is what he has.

Of course this is an easy call if the dude would never bet a draw.

Brad

Nick C

06-27-2005, 02:49 AM

I would call.

I've read the responses up until this point, and I'm not really sure why we're putting Villain on a draw. I mean, a draw is possible, certainly, but it's not exactly the first thing I suspect from this 74/7/.9 guy who bet into the PFR.

Those aren't exactly passive numbers from a player this loose, but I do think there's a good chance he has a pair, quite likely a king.

If MP2 does just have a draw, though, I do agree that getting UTG+1 out, if possible, would be a good thing. And MP2 doesn't have to be betting a draw all that often for a raise to be a good idea.

Maybe I'm being too quick to put him on a made hand.

private joker

06-27-2005, 03:03 AM

Does anyone else fold this flop? With his stats, Villain almost always has a K betting into the PFR. That gives us 3 outs plus a backdoor flush draw (and a backdoor Broadway). I think the flop call is pretty thin.

Entity

06-27-2005, 03:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else fold this flop? With his stats, Villain almost always has a K betting into the PFR. That gives us 3 outs plus a backdoor flush draw (and a backdoor Broadway). I think the flop call is pretty thin.

[/ QUOTE ]

Someone who plays 74% of his hands yet manages an aggression factor of .9 is actually quite aggressive. You've given him far too narrow of a range of hands here.

KDawgCometh

06-27-2005, 03:08 AM

I think a raise here would be a good idea. the villian has a very high aggro factor for someone who plays 3/4 of their hands. You could very well have the best hand here(at least between you and the villian, and getting HU with the villian is a good idea. I think your jack outs might be a little dirty as he could be on just a oesd. Your ace outs are probably good here, and like I said, you could very well have the best hand. I think I lean towards raising it here and take a free showdown UI

KDawgCometh

06-27-2005, 03:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Maybe I'm being too quick to put him on a made hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are. he has a very high aggro factor for someone who plays 74% of his hands. he could be on any draw, or just betting into us just to see what we are gonna do, since a total bluff is certainly not out of the question

private joker

06-27-2005, 03:13 AM

<blockquote>Svar på:<hr />
<blockquote>Svar på:<hr />
Does anyone else fold this flop? With his stats, Villain almost always has a K betting into the PFR. That gives us 3 outs plus a backdoor flush draw (and a backdoor Broadway). I think the flop call is pretty thin.

[/ QUOTE ]

Someone who plays 74% of his hands yet manages an aggression factor of .9 is actually quite aggressive. You've given him far too narrow of a range of hands here.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's possible, but even if we put him on a lower pair then we have 6 outs plus the backdoors. Still not great. I really don't see him betting a draw into a PFR that's likely to raise, blowing out his one other customer, UTG+1. That's if he's thinking. If he's not thinking, then he'll check and call his draw until he hits it. Either way, I see these horribly loose PF players (50+ VPIP) almost always betting made hands here (often top pair), especially when it's directly in front of a PFR. I'm just not sure we have enough equity to continue. If we do, it's really thin.

KDawgCometh

06-27-2005, 03:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else fold this flop? With his stats, Villain almost always has a K betting into the PFR. That gives us 3 outs plus a backdoor flush draw (and a backdoor Broadway). I think the flop call is pretty thin.

[/ QUOTE ]

Someone who plays 74% of his hands yet manages an aggression factor of .9 is actually quite aggressive. You've given him far too narrow of a range of hands here.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's possible, but even if we put him on a lower pair then we have 6 outs plus the backdoors. Still not great. I really don't see him betting a draw into a PFR that's likely to raise, blowing out his one other customer, UTG+1. That's if he's thinking. If he's not thinking, then he'll check and call his draw until he hits it. Either way, I see these horribly loose PF players (50+ VPIP) almost always betting made hands here (often top pair), especially when it's directly in front of a PFR. I'm just not sure we have enough equity to continue. If we do, it's really thin.

[/ QUOTE ]

honestly, I wouldn't doubt that we don't hold the best hand on the flop between us and the villian. players like this villian can be prone to betting into the PFR just to see their reaction

jason_t

06-27-2005, 03:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else fold this flop? With his stats, Villain almost always has a K betting into the PFR. That gives us 3 outs plus a backdoor flush draw (and a backdoor Broadway). I think the flop call is pretty thin.

[/ QUOTE ]

His stats are actually fairly aggressive for a player that loose. I have two backdoor draws, two overs if he has a pair less than a K and a better hand if he has a flush draw or is just donk betting. His range of hands here is pretty wide and I don't think the flop call is close.

Evan

06-27-2005, 03:30 AM

I'm not responding to any of your hands until you're playing 3/6. This is ridiculous.

Also, if you haev stats on UTG+1 you should post them here.

jason_t

06-27-2005, 03:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Also, if you haev stats on UTG+1 you should post them here.

[/ QUOTE ]

74/0/.2 and goes to showdown 54% of the time but this only over 25 hands.

thirddan

06-27-2005, 03:37 AM

then why not raise the flop and maybe knock out the third player?

SippinSoma

06-27-2005, 03:58 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not responding to any of your hands until you're playing 3/6. This is ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

+1, but not that you care anyway. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Rico Suave

06-27-2005, 09:16 AM

private joker:

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else fold this flop? With his stats, Villain almost always has a K betting into the PFR. That gives us 3 outs plus a backdoor flush draw (and a backdoor Broadway). I think the flop call is pretty thin.

[/ QUOTE ]

I just thought I would weigh in here and let you know that you are not alone.

I do agree with some of the others, that a 74% VPIP with a .9 aggression factor will likely be betting a wider range than just a K here, but we also have to consider that this is over 50 hands.....which is quite small to get a good idea of AF.

8.5:1 with 1 overcard, 2 backdoor draws, on a 2 tone board not closing the action....I am not sure how the flop call can be considered "not close." I don't think it is bad....just closer than what others have said.

--Rico

silvershade

06-27-2005, 09:58 AM

I say call, the raise doesnt make much sense to me here. It's not like you can confidently say you are ahead on high card A, villain may be aggressive but he also doesnt need much to be in the lead here so I reckon you ought to assume you are behind.

If behind then a raise here simply cuts your odds. Your 4-1 on the flush draw and the pots only offering 5-1 for a call, thats 2.5-1 you are getting on a raise, implied odds might make up the difference but I think its doubtful.

Of course aside of the flush you might hit an Ace ( the Jacks are very dubiouis here I think ), but those Ace outs could easily be counterfeited so it seems like a poor investment to me. Villain on A9 or A7 leaves you paying him off if you hit after all and not vice versa, not to mention the Ace of clubs if UTG+1 ( or even villain for that matter ) is on the other flush draw and doesnt drop.

crunchy1

06-27-2005, 10:08 AM

I'm raising that flop with two backdoor draws and an overcard if there's a reasonable chance that I'll be able to check-behind on the turn.

Given the stats you posted on Villian - it seems that the chances of getting checked to on the turn are pretty good.

dealer_toe

06-27-2005, 12:05 PM

I think this is a spot that villain re-donks the turn after our flop raise pretty often. It's been said he's pretty agg. for his VPIP. That's a lot worse than just calling the flop.

I like the flop call, turn raise. For one it almost certainly gets us a free showdown. If we just call the turn and a brick spade/heart comes, MP could be leading a busted flush or straight draw and push us off the best hand. And when our draw does come in we got that extra BB in on the turn.

chief444

06-27-2005, 12:17 PM

I'm raising because I wouldn't feel comfortable folding the river with a good ace against this opponent anyway.

I think the flop is close between calling, raising, and folding. If UTG+1 is really loose I'd at least consider folding. But the call certainly isn't bad.

jason_t

06-29-2005, 01:40 AM

Brunger

06-29-2005, 01:46 AM

have been owned. Probably a stubborn call. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

thirddan

06-29-2005, 01:46 AM

fold...when you bets out again i can't really see him having a missed flush draw...you have represented strength and he doesn't seem to care, and you only have A hi...

gaming_mouse

06-29-2005, 02:10 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else fold this flop? With his stats, Villain almost always has a K betting into the PFR. That gives us 3 outs plus a backdoor flush draw (and a backdoor Broadway). I think the flop call is pretty thin.

[/ QUOTE ]

His stats are actually fairly aggressive for a player that loose. I have two backdoor draws, two overs if he has a pair less than a K and a better hand if he has a flush draw or is just donk betting. His range of hands here is pretty wide and I don't think the flop call is close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are wrong. The two clubs taint your ace outs as well as your b/d straight outs, which are already of medium/weak variety as far as b/d straights go.

After 50 hands, the .9 AF is not very reliable. If you had seen this guy bet bottom pair or a draw OOP into more than 2 players before, I would feel better about the call, but even then I think it's close.

jason_t

06-29-2005, 02:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else fold this flop? With his stats, Villain almost always has a K betting into the PFR. That gives us 3 outs plus a backdoor flush draw (and a backdoor Broadway). I think the flop call is pretty thin.

[/ QUOTE ]

His stats are actually fairly aggressive for a player that loose. I have two backdoor draws, two overs if he has a pair less than a K and a better hand if he has a flush draw or is just donk betting. His range of hands here is pretty wide and I don't think the flop call is close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are wrong. The two clubs taint your ace outs as well as your b/d straight outs, which are already of medium/weak variety as far as b/d straights go.

After 50 hands, the .9 AF is not very reliable. If you had seen this guy bet bottom pair or a draw OOP into more than 2 players before, I would feel better about the call, but even then I think it's close.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're missing the point: if he has a club draw then I likely have the best hand and don't need to improve.

gaming_mouse

06-29-2005, 02:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]

You're missing the point: if he has a club draw then I likely have the best hand and don't need to improve.

[/ QUOTE ]

If that was your read then you should have raised. My thought is that most players with these numbers don't bet their draws. I'll concede that this is debatable, but that is why I said I'd be much more comfortable if you had some notes on him.