TT -- straightforward hand?

[JimmyV]

Mohegan Sun 3/6, my last hand of the night.

Table is loose and very passive -- I raised UTG at one point with A /forums/images/icons/heart.gif K /forums/images/icons/spade.gif and got four callers for a 4 6 7 flop. I bet the flop and everyone called, UTG+2 bet the turn (a 5) and everyone called (including me, embarrassingly, to close the action), and the 8 came on the river for a five-way chop. Turns out my AK was up against 35 for the flopped straight, T8s for the turned straight, 66 for the flopped set, and something even weirder like T3. Only one of those people ever initiated a bet.

Anyway, last hand of the night, I raise UTG with T /forums/images/icons/spade.gif T /forums/images/icons/club.gif . Cutoff (older guy who's turned over a lot of suited trash) calls, BB (very loose gambling player who narrates the development of her hands) calls.

Flop Q /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 7 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 5 /forums/images/icons/club.gif .

I bet, both players call. This is odd but not surprising. It's hard to put cutoff on Q-no kicker, since he called getting no odds preflop. QJ seems possible, QK I think even he would need to raise. BB I credit with almost nothing, because I've seen her draw with almost no outs over and over, and the vibe from my right side is of 'what the hell, I'm in.'

Turn A /forums/images/icons/club.gif . Nice scare card.

I bet, both players call. I appear to be done with this hand.

In calling the turn BB indicates that she's stuck in this bulls*** hand, bemoans her bad luck in being involved. I believe she has nothing, but am hard pressed to figure out what her draw might be. (Turns out it was JK -- good thing my T never came.)

River is a brick, the 2 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif . We check it down (I've had a couple unsuccessful bluffs this session, and my hand has showdown value). Cutoff has JJ, which makes sense. Perfectly straightforward. So I go home down $6 rather than up $9.

But then someone comments on the A and Q on board, and the cutoff's tenacity. And he says, "If he'd bet the river...," i.e., if I'd bet the river he would have folded.

Does anyone bet the river in this spot? Anyone believe this post-showdown comment, or is it just a lie? Are there really sane-looking older guys out there who will call with what they think is two outs, and then fold on the river for one bet with the pot laying them 8 to 1?

If anyone thinks the cutoff played this well, can they surmise what hand HE put ME on?

Simple to play in this situation -- I think I played it right -- but hard to understand the thought processes out across the table.

[StoneAge]

I think you played it right, JJ would probably be the only hand you could get to lay down that beats you in this situation and I don't think the guy would always lay it down- he might have a "feeling" and call you.

[polarbear]

I don't think the cutoff will fold to a river bet.

In fact, it seems at least three players in the game will never fold to any bet, except perhaps on the river with nothing, from what happened in those 2 hands. In particular, the T3 guy from the first hand, and the BB and cutoff from the other hand.

By the way, when you're against 4 opponents who all call the flop with AK on a 7654 board, putting any more money in the pot is almost always a bad idea.

[bernie]

with a passive table, just limping is fine...

though depending on ones image, sometimes a passive table will fold more-so, so a raise can be fine...

the CO played like crap. preflop, and flop...never made a move, never knew where he stood...

with the nice rag flop, and the appearance of the A, im not betting the river, but ill call one....maybe

but a case can be made bor betting the river...but youd have to have bet the turn also, representing the A to have a shot at folding him...which you did. and since he didnt fold there with his JJ, why would he fold for 1 more bet? he wont...

to understand the thought process.....look at clarkmeisters post on 'how the fish think' it's pretty funny, but is probably close....cant remember where it was at...psychology forum?
read it and it may fill in the blanks a little...

b

also...if others at the table say he wouldve folded the river here...make a note and watch for confirmation on how he plays rivers....if theyre more familiar with his play, they may be telling you some useful information....i watch for this when im in a new room with players i dont know. especially if they seem to have played with one another quite a bit. anything they say about another player on the table, could be useful info...then its a matter of confirmation. and that can put you ahead in the race for info agaisnt new players.. who's going to tell them how you play? they my not know you....get the idea...

may or may not pertain, but something to think about..

[Dynasty]

These quotes from your post have highlighted substantial problems in your thought process.

1. It's hard to put cutoff on Q-no kicker, since he called getting no odds preflop.

2. Are there really sane-looking older guys out there who will call with what they think is two outs, and then fold on the river for one bet with the pot laying them 8 to 1?

3. ...can they surmise what hand HE put ME on?

4. ...but hard to understand the thought processes out across the table.

1. You incorrectly believe that your opponents play hands, including cold-calling raises, with pre-flop odds as a serious consideration. Usually, if they have a hand they think is playable, they will play it no matter what.

2. He isn't thinking that he's drawing to two outs. He's thinking that he has JJ and wants to call with it. He could fold it on the river but it's not the river yet so he thinks he still has a chance.

3. I doubt he put you on a hand at all. Even if he did, he had JJ and wants to call with it. He knows that you are still betting so calling is just about the only option he sees since there's one more card to come.

4. If your opponent doesn't have a thought process, you aren't going to figure it out.

Basically, you are giving your opponent way to much credit for playing his hand in a logical manner. He's calling because he has JJ.

At the Tropicana here in Las Vegas, you can play tic-tac-toe against a chicken. If you beat the chicken, you win something like $25,000. Since I first saw the promotion last summer, the chicken has only lost twice. Does its won-loss record make you think that the chicken is a deep thinking strategical player? If you were playing tic-tac-toe against this chicken, would you be trying to strategically outthink the animal since it has only lost twice in over half a year? Or would you just assume it is doing what it always does day after day and there isn't much you can do to change it's behavior?

[Ed Miller]

At the Tropicana here in Las Vegas, you can play tic-tac-toe against a chicken.

LOL... I have to see this...

[Ulysses]

and since he didnt fold there [turn] with his JJ, why would he fold for 1 more bet? he wont...

I suspect that it wouldn't have made any difference in this hand, but I see hands like this call on the turn and fold on the river all the time - most commonly with a low pair, hoping to spike trips or two pair on the river, otherwise check-folding.

Here's the thought process:

Ace falls on the turn. UTG (who has raised and bet all the way) bets. JJ says "hmmm... maybe he doesn't have the Ace or Queen. If he doesn't have the Ace or Queen, he won't bet the river, so I'll get a free showdown. And even if he does, I can catch a jack at the end. OK. I'll call." Now, BB calls as well.

UTG bets again on the river. JJ says "Damn, I hoped he was bluffing on the turn. Since two people called, he must have AT LEAST the Queen to bet, but probably the Ace. And if he doesn't, BB probably does, so I might as well fold."

[Jim Easton]

look at clarkmeisters post on 'how the fish think' it's pretty funny, but is probably close....cant remember where it was at...psychology forum?

It is "What the fish put you on", posted 1/22/02 in Psychology. Very entertaining, and confirms what I always believed. Combine that with Dynasty's post in this thread and you'll never wonder "what was he thinking?" again.

I used to want to ask that question, but realized the fish wasn't thinking, and there was no reason to make him think he should.

[mauisupaman]

JimmyV,
Why isn't betting the river a viable option? It seems like people call raises preflop with the weirdest things in LL Holdem. And they'll also stick with the longest of draws if they get any part of the flop. So, maybe I'm too aggressive in this situation, but I would've unloaded that last barrel on the river.
A hui hou,
Adam

[Jim Easton]

[STOSH1]

Dynasty, you have totally destroyed my "poker face". Anytime I look across the table, deciding if I'm betting the river, I'll be imagining a chicken playing tic-tac-toe and break out laughing !! /forums/images/icons/laugh.gif

[Georgia Peach]

[Bob T.]

How many times has the chicken won? I bet it is more than twice. I can just see the guy, 'that dang chicken beat me, I want a rematch'.

LMAO

Bob T.

[JimmyV]

Just to clarify -- the cutoff HIMSELF claimed that he would have folded to a river bet. This is what made the hand stick in my mind; it's routine otherwise.

The temptation here is to imagine that I could have won this hand despite the fact that I was drawing dead on the turn; i.e., that the JJ might have folded to a river bet, as he claims he would have (and the KJ might have called with the nut no-pair).

Does the cutoff's claim sound plausible to anyone at all? I tend to think it was just post-showdown deceit.

The chicken thing is perfect.

[Homer]

He's full of it. He wouldn't have folded to your river bet.

[AmericanAirlines]

Hi Dynasty,
Hmm... why do I feel like your response describes me! LOL!

Anyway, in responding about Point #1 you make an interesting point.

So, how would one determine what sufficient pre-flop odds are to start?

Last time I analyzed two card flushes against the Colorado flat bet $5 game I think it looked like it would take 9.3 callers to make playing only the flush worthwhile. Other posters pointed out that two card flush hands also make other hands, so my analysis was pessimistic.

But... same question... how do I know, for example... what pot odds I want to start with say AJo... or any other hand for that matter?

Sincerely,
AA

[Jim Easton]

He's not folding.

[Dynasty]

how do I know what pot odds I want to start with say AJo... or any other hand for that matter?


The more I play and the more I think about the game, the more I don't consider pot odds pre-flop. Most of your hourly rate comes from post-flop bets. When I consider playing a hand, I'm usually thinking "Can I play this hand profitably post-flop?".

With A8o and four limpers to me on the button, the answer is "No" so I fold. With one limper to me on the button, the answer is "Yes". Notice that I actually have better pot odds with four limpers.

With 22 and four limpers to me on the button, the answer is "Yes" so I call. With no limpers to me on the button, the anser is "No" so I fold (although some will raise to try to steal the blinds).

Pre-flop decisions aren't about pot odds. They're about whether you can play the hand profitably post-flop. As long as you're not cold-calling raises pre-flop and aren't open limping with marginal hands, you should be able to stay away from situations with bad pot odds.