Daily Hand Post : AQs in the SB

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey guys,

Routine plays in common situations.

Folded to CO (31/8.5) who raises. Button coldcalls (35/14, CC 18%), I 3-bet from the SB with A /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gif, both call. 3 to the flop for 10 SB's.

Flop comes: 9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif6 /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I bet, CO calls, Button folds. HU to the turn for 6 BB's.

Turn comes: A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Edit: Messed up the flop.

GoT

[Joe Tall]

EVERYTIME I'M FIRST TO RESPOND TO YOUR POST, YOU FCK IT UP, NEWB!

This flop does change things, of sorts, where did the 744r flop go? I'll wait 10 mins to see what the next flop will be.

/images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[toss]

I guess a turn check/raise is a lot better than the bet/3-bet line I was thinking.

[Emmitt2222]

Oh sweet, I just learned about this sweet turn c/r move and this is the perfect spot. Board is drawless so its not a killer if its checked through, but the A is a scare card so if checked to he will probably bet and you can get the c/r in. Sweet.

[BWebb]

Check-raise. Not worried about a free card and if he checks behind you will get called on the river with all sorts of hands he would have folded had you bet the turn.

P.S. It was nice meeting you in Vegas. I have some vague memory of you treating me and others to something on Magoo night. If this is the case, thanks. However, you are also the reason I dropped $300 in 5 minutes at the craps table that night. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Grease]

At first I thought bet, but after mulling it over, I really like a c/r here, (I was kinda helped out by reading the other responses, thanks guys).

Thanks for expanding my mind, GoT.

[GuyOnTilt]

Just so everybody doesn't get sucked into the "obvious" turn check-raise here, I'm still somewhat unsure of this hand.

GoT

[nepenthe]

I like a turn bet/call if raised, then (donk)bet-call the river line.

[scrub]

[ QUOTE ]
Just so everybody doesn't get sucked into the "obvious" turn check-raise here, I'm still somewhat unsure of this hand.

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a prime example of why Joe should let threads percolate a bit before he replies, and why most hand posts shouldn't contain complete action for the hand.

scrub

[Joe Tall]

This is a prime example of why Joe should let threads percolate a bit before he replies, and why most hand posts shouldn't contain complete action for the hand.

Hey! I'm going back to hiding in my corner. /images/graemlins/frown.gif GoT's first flop w/744r btw and I changed my reply to his post.

[aK13]

Hmm...how does a check/call, bet/call sound?

I think if we check/raise him on the turn and he's got a mid PP TT-KK, he's gonna fold, but we might be able to squeeze an extra bet out of him on the river if we donkbet the river.

I also think it's going to cost us less when we're behind something like AK or A9 or AA(4BB), as he will surely 3bet our check/raise on the turn, but we will be obligated to call down (I think? or at least I don't have the discipline to raise/fold). If we check/call, bet/call river, we lose only 3BB. If we're ahead on the turn after we raise, his likely holdings are AJ or AT, and I don't think he's going to 3bet here fearing a bigger kicker. So from these hands, we earn the same from both lines, but we lose less when we're behind.

[GuyOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]
EVERYTIME I'M FIRST TO RESPOND TO YOUR POST, YOU FCK IT UP, NEWB!

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't hate. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[ QUOTE ]
This flop does change things, of sorts, where did the 744r flop go? I'll wait 10 mins to see what the next flop will be. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I was thinking of this hand and looking at the wrong HH. I definitely blame PT.

GoT

[Justin A]

Bump so that we may consider the check/call check/raise line, and also his little brother the check/call bet line.

[goofball]

this depends hugely on game conditions/opponent.

I almost always just keep the lead here. Preflop raisers who keep betting after no one has shown resistance are difficult to put on a hand.

I believe checking induces our villian to play correctly too. If he has a draw he'll take the free card, if he has a pair he might take the free card or he might bet planning on folding to a checkraise. If villian has a monster he'll just punish us either way but with a c/r it's villian's choice whether the turn get 3bet as opposed to our's.

[aK13]

[ QUOTE ]
this depends hugely on game conditions/opponent.

I almost always just keep the lead here. Preflop raisers who keep betting after no one has shown resistance are difficult to put on a hand.

I believe checking induces our villian to play correctly too. If he has a draw he'll take the free card, if he has a pair he might take the free card or he might bet planning on folding to a checkraise. If villian has a monster he'll just punish us either way but with a c/r it's villian's choice whether the turn get 3bet as opposed to our's.

[/ QUOTE ]

What draws do you expect him to have here?

If he's going to check and take a free card, he would have folded to our turn bet anyway. This is a very clear WA/WB situation.

[party36master]

I like bet/call, Donkbet/fold.

I think a turn checkraise pushes CO off a hand like KK, who was waiting for the turn to raise. If you bet, he may call you down or raise the turn.

Same comment for AJ, AT. Bet, he may raise.

Then donkbet the river, and you can safely fold to a second raise.

[thejameser]

bet until raised and then call down.

[Paxosmotic]

CO could open with a huge range of hands here and might see our 3-bet as a resteal. I see no reason to give up the lead on this hand yet. Bet here and check the river to induce a bluff. If raised here you can safely call down, I believe.

[party36master]

[ QUOTE ]
I like bet/call, Donkbet/fold.

I think a turn checkraise pushes CO off a hand like KK, who was waiting for the turn to raise. If you bet, he may call you down or raise the turn.

Same comment for AJ, AT. Bet, he may raise.

Then donkbet the river, and you can safely fold to a second raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me go into this in more detail.
Comparing Bet/call Donkbet/fold to the turn checkraise.

Suppose CO has JJ. If I'm CO, I raise the turn. I can push hero off of KK, QQ, a weak-tight AQ, AJ, or AT. (AJ and AT are pre-flop 3 bet possibilities due to defending against the blind steal). Of course I fold to river donkbet.
So turn checkraise wins 1 bet, and Bet/Call Donkbet wins 2 bets.
Same type of analysis w/QQ KK.

Now suppose I'm CO with AJ or AT. I raise the turn. I don't fold, otherwise why did I call the flop. I raise, to gain small fold equity to push hero off of AQ, AJ, plus my hand is good against KK, QQ, JJ, etc.
The donkbet on the river is now tough. I consider calling.
Again, the turn checkraise wins 1 bet, since I would fold.
So turn checkraise wins 1 bet, Bet/call donkbet wins 2 or 3 bets.

As hero, against AK or a set, turn checkraise loses 2 bets, and Bet/call donkbet loses 3 bets.

I think if you believe CO will play this way, and spin the math, Bet/call donkbet is better.

[WillMagic]

[ QUOTE ]
check the river to induce a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

ewwwwwwwwwwwwwww

Will

[DeathDonkey]

I think a turn CR would be sweet for meta-game purposes, but cost you a bet in this hand.

-DeathDonkey

[Paxosmotic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
check the river to induce a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

ewwwwwwwwwwwwwww

Will

[/ QUOTE ]
A guy with a 31vpip opened from CO and has shown no aggression since we played back at him. Do we honestly think this guy has anything? He'll almost certainly fold to our bet on the river, why not check to and let him bet into us, a la the Amazingly Standard AQs play?

[chief444]

I'm thinking CO's most likely holdings here are a worse A or other overcard combinations such as KT-KQ, JT, QT, QJ, or even K8, Q8, etc depending on how much he attempts to steal. It seems likely that any pair would raise the flop with button still in. So you're probably way ahead here most of the time, way behind a smaller percentage of the time, and he may be drawing to more outs than I'm thinking a smaller percentage of the time. But it's not a very draw heavy board.

However, I still like a check/raise because he'll bet a worse ace and call down. Bet/3-bet is another option if he'll raise any Ace but I don't think he would, or at least he wouldn't always.

The other thing is, even if he is behind without an ace he will still bet the turn sometimes.

If you think he would just call the flop with T9-K9 or other possible pair +5 out combinations though then it seems betting becomes a better option because he's probably loose enough to call down to a bet but may check through the turn or may fold to a check/raise if he does bet. Basically, if he plays a little loose and fairly aggressive postflop I think check/raising is better. If he plays more than a little loose and passive postflop then I think betting is better. If he plays well postflop then I like to check/raise a decent amount on the turn anyway.

[Trix]

I bet and call down if raised.

check-call, bet may be better if you weren´t going to play more as it wont matter with your shania then, but normally I dont want to be in a spot here where I can´t have the A when I bet.

[goofball]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
this depends hugely on game conditions/opponent.

I almost always just keep the lead here. Preflop raisers who keep betting after no one has shown resistance are difficult to put on a hand.

I believe checking induces our villian to play correctly too. If he has a draw he'll take the free card, if he has a pair he might take the free card or he might bet planning on folding to a checkraise. If villian has a monster he'll just punish us either way but with a c/r it's villian's choice whether the turn get 3bet as opposed to our's.

[/ QUOTE ]

What draws do you expect him to have here?

If he's going to check and take a free card, he would have folded to our turn bet anyway. This is a very clear WA/WB situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or it's not. Villian can have any number of straight draws or straight/overcard draws. on a 964A board, (remember he opened from the CO). It's more like a way ahead/way ahead situation. We're behind about 6 hands here, and ahead of about 50. A good number of those 50 though (who are willing to put more money in the pot) are drawing to thiings like 4 or 5 outs. Let's not let catch one for free.

I thought I posted my line last night. I like a betcall bet line. Folding to the second river raise isn't really set in stone though.

[Bluffoon]

I think you are only going to lose a worse hand with a check raise. I bet the turn and bet the river again if called on the turn. I see almost any ace raising the turn and I want to see the showdown so I call a turn raise then check call the river if raised. This loses the least to better hand and lets the worse ace hang himself with his own rope.

[private joker]

I like a check-raise here. Any worse ace will bet, and then call down your raise (his loose stats indicate he has trouble folding when beaten, though you didn't provide any PF-A). Also, if it checks through, I don't think giving a free card is that dangerous, and it's more likely a river bet will be called because he may think his mid-PP could be good after the weak turn action. Bet this turn and you could lose hands that are drawing extremely thin.

If you get 3-bet after you checkraise, you can probably lay down -- since it will be AK or 2 pair (A9?) quite often, giving you 3 outs at best, dead to a set at worst. But I really doubt you're getting 3-bet. Check-raise and lead the river. You'll get 3 more BBs out of him.

If you bet the turn and get raised, you don't know where you are. Is he raising AT/AJ? or is he raising AK/A9? You can't securely 3-bet, so you have to call and check the river, which he may check behind for a free showdown, costing you money when he has AJ or smaller.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
I like a check-raise here. Any worse ace will bet, and then call down your raise

[/ QUOTE ]

A worse ace will also raise a pretty high percentage of the time, making GoT the same amount, and potentially more if he wants to get frisky and 3-bet.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]

A worse ace will also raise a pretty high percentage of the time,

[/ QUOTE ]

Without his postflop aggression factor, I don't know that we can count on this, especially since our PF 3-bet is pretty scary. This is even more true for a mediocre player who doesn't know that it means there's a good chance we have TT-KK.

In fact, based on this guys PF stats, he seems a little passive if anything. I'd say a worse A with those stats is only raising maybe 50% of the time. I could be way off though...

[private joker]

Well, I think the pertinent question is when our turn bet is raised, how often are we ahead vs. how often are we behind? I think that hands which bet when we check and just call our c/r are more often losers than the hands that raise our bet. Since we can fold to a 3-bet on the turn (at least I think so, it might be close), I think we lose the least when we're behind and gain the most when we're ahead.

[party36master]

[ QUOTE ]

If you bet the turn and get raised, you don't know where you are. Is he raising AT/AJ? or is he raising AK/A9? You can't securely 3-bet, so you have to call and check the river, which he may check behind for a free showdown, costing you money when he has AJ or smaller.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree you have to call the turn.

Why check the river? AK or better is going to bet the river, and you're going to call. AJ or worse may in fact call the river ifyou bet. There is some small chance that another AQ would fold the river if you bet.
You're not going to get bluffed by a worse hand if you bet the river. You can fold to a raise. Pick up a value bet if AJ calls.

[WillMagic]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
check the river to induce a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

ewwwwwwwwwwwwwww

Will

[/ QUOTE ]
A guy with a 31vpip opened from CO and has shown no aggression since we played back at him. Do we honestly think this guy has anything?

He'll almost certainly fold to our bet on the river, why not check to and let him bet into us, a la the Amazingly Standard AQs play?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he will call with more hands than he will bet if we check. Villain is 31/8.5, which means he is not a maniac - he is slightly loose/passive.

Against loose passives, value betting is the shiznizzle and inducing bluffs is not the shiznizzle.

You seriously need to reevaluate your river play. I guarantee that you do not value bet nearly enough, and that it is costing you a significant amount of money at whatever limit you are playing.

Will

[Jonny Melon]

I like leading this turn. I think a lot of opponents will smell a rat when you check here and check behind, especially if they don't have a pair. We have no indication that our opponent is a LAG here.

Also, I want the equity of being able to lead without the ace in a future hand and getting my opponent to fold the turn.

Jon

[oreogod]

I bet out on the turn. If he raises I think its a call. You could get a little crazy and three-bet him (which is another reason I like the bet line.). I think CR here could lead to u losing more than u need to.

I like a CR if u have AK.

[Brunger]

Why do we want to check. That is more likely to be a scare card for him because it is even less likely that it hit him because we hold one. Also if he does have an ace we may be raised giving us a chance to 3-bet because if he had AK we, I assume, would be likely to see a cap pre-flop. If he has an A9 type hand we probably would have been raised on the flop. So I like just betting with the intention of a 3-bet.

[sthief09]

how bout a check-call, check-raise?

[MrEngenic]

I usually keep betting in these situation. I'd occasionally throw in a check/call, bet/call in this spot if I had to give up on many hands before and I suspect I'm being bluffed off the best hand alot. I'd also try bet and check raise river vs some players who call down with anything and always bet if checked to.

I think all sorts of plays are valid depending on your opponent, what you have done in previous hands etc. Metagame