88 utg shove problem..

[raptor517]

***** Hand History for Game 2269686069 *****
NL Hold'em $200 Buy-in + $15 Entry Fee Trny:13441718 Level:5 Blinds(75/150) - Monday, June 27, 00:18:09 EDT 2005
Table Table 12083 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: BigSmitty33 ( $1850 )
Seat 4: Lip_Balm ( $1295 )
Seat 6: ganduras ( $1040 )
Seat 8: CherBelle1 ( $1550 )
Seat 9: Simpleton222 ( $3665 )
Seat 10: mush00 ( $600 )
Trny:13441718 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Lip_Balm [ 8d 8c ]
Lip_Balm ?

[durron597]

Easiest. Push. Ever.

[curtains]

PUSH! Folding is simply ridiculous. Cmon man, the questions you ask me on AOL IM are at least interesting!!

[microbet]

Well, not the easiest push in the world, but a push. I think with 77 too, but probably not 66.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
Easiest. Push. Ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is just plain wrong. holla

[microbet]

Hey, man with the million ROI, where do you draw the line?

Below I said good on 77, probably not 66.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

this is just plain wrong. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok that's true. But so is this:

[ QUOTE ]
PUSH! Folding is simply ridiculous. Cmon man, the questions you ask me on AOL IM are at least interesting!!

[/ QUOTE ]

[Myst]

Its marginal either way I think.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

this is just plain wrong. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok that's true. But so is this:

[ QUOTE ]
PUSH! Folding is simply ridiculous. Cmon man, the questions you ask me on AOL IM are at least interesting!!

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

very true, boo to both of you. yers came first so i responded to it. not singling out, lol. i think this play is VERY close. 1150 chips i shove. 1500+ i autofold. so im not so sure. i think it may be close enough to not really matter. who knows. holla

[Apathy]

[ QUOTE ]

PUSH! Folding is simply ridiculous. Cmon man, the questions you ask me on AOL IM are at least interesting!!

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed, post that 25o "AUTO PUSH" hand, much more interesting then this.

[Nick M]

you push 77 but not 66....huh? if you push 77 you push 22 in my eyes. You don't push 22 because why??? You're scared of 66 - 33 that doesn't sound logical. If you push 22 you think you get called by 33???? So if you don't push 22 what are you scared of...66,55,44?? Just wondering what the thought process is behind this. Thanks!

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
you push 77 but not 66....huh? if you push 77 you push 22 in my eyes. You don't push 22 because why??? You're scared of 66 - 33 that doesn't sound logical. If you push 22 you think you get called by 33???? So if you don't push 22 what are you scared of...66,55,44?? Just wondering what the thought process is behind this. Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

Because 88 is a much bigger favorite over A7 than 66 is. Also if the flop comes JJ77x I'd much rather have 88 than 66.

[Nick M]

So you think A7 calls you?

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

this is just plain wrong. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok that's true. But so is this:

[ QUOTE ]
PUSH! Folding is simply ridiculous. Cmon man, the questions you ask me on AOL IM are at least interesting!!

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

very true, boo to both of you. yers came first so i responded to it. not singling out, lol. i think this play is VERY close. 1150 chips i shove. 1500+ i autofold. so im not so sure. i think it may be close enough to not really matter. who knows. holla

[/ QUOTE ]


btw I think its a clear push with 1500 chips too.

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
btw I think its a clear push with 1500 chips too.

[/ QUOTE ]

next time ill be a world champ and autoshove. /images/graemlins/wink.gif holla

[Nick M]

hmmmm another thing...do you think the chances of the cards falling JJ99 are any worse than the chances of the cards falling JJ55 when you hold 66???

[zipppy]

[ QUOTE ]
hmmmm another thing...do you think the chances of the cards falling JJ99 are any worse than the chances of the cards falling JJ55 when you hold 66???

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see the relevance of comparing those two flops. There are more flops and hands that will beat you with a lower pair than middle pair. And the difference is significant enough to make a difference in where you draw the line for pushing.

[Unarmed]

[ QUOTE ]
1150 chips i shove. 1500+ i autofold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you give any thought to calling and calling SB's push with 1500+?

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
you push 77 but not 66....huh? if you push 77 you push 22 in my eyes. You don't push 22 because why??? You're scared of 66 - 33 that doesn't sound logical. If you push 22 you think you get called by 33???? So if you don't push 22 what are you scared of...66,55,44?? Just wondering what the thought process is behind this. Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

You're kidding, right? Make any list of hands you expect to get called with. Anything reasonable will do. I will show you why 22 is significantly worse than 77.

eastbay

[stupidsucker]

myst had the best answer imo...

I made a point to raptor on aim about hands like this...

I am not sure the rest of you are ready for the truth...

I am not sure I am ready for you to know the truth...

I am on tilt and running bad, so I am not sure I know the turth.

[johnnybeef]

The new blind structure and the strategy adjustments that are necessary have not yet been adressed here (to my knowledge). Because of the new level that has been added to the party sng, there is more time to maneuver your chips through correct play in the blinds and properly utilizing situations in which you have a high amount of fold equity. While pushing 88 in this situation is +CEV, it is only slightly +CEV. This is an edge that a good player who knows how to properly extract chips a little later in the tournament should be able to pass on in favor of several better situations that will be available very soon (probably even as soon as the next two hands). I would for this reason tend to fold here 3/4 of the time.

[microbet]

77 is also a lot better against, say A6, then 55 is.

[45suited]

I can't believe that there even needs to be any discussion that 77 is better than 22 in this spot. When I read that comment, my jaw actually dropped, particularly since it came from a quality player.

[Luminous Mist]

[ QUOTE ]
my jaw actually dropped, particularly since it came from a quality player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who says he's a quality player? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

I don't even believe he has a 25% ROI 12 tabling continuous thread yet in the 109s or 215s, so he can't be very good now can he??

Luminous

[Nick M]

ok how about A8+ and say 55+....is this reasonable? I actually don't think you get called by A8 and probably not 55 either, but giving you the benifit here. So how much better is 77 than 22?

EDIT: significantly better I mean...

[Nick M]

humor me...

[Jason Strasser]

[ QUOTE ]
Would you give any thought to calling and calling SB's push with 1500+?

[/ QUOTE ]

Limp folding = bad.

[microbet]

I think I am ready. My mind is wide open. If you don't think others are ready, please feel free to PM me.

[Jason Strasser]

[ QUOTE ]
1150 chips i shove. 1500+ i autofold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are going to have to explain this one. How the heck with 2k chips here would you justify folding 88 UTG? How about a typical standard raise?

WTF HOLLA

[Luminous Mist]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Would you give any thought to calling and calling SB's push with 1500+?

[/ QUOTE ]

Limp folding = bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's advocating limp/calling though...unless he means limp/call SB and limp/fold to everyone else. Which yes, would be awful.

However, is limp/calling viable here? I mean, if the table is pretty aggro this seems like a possible place to double up and a limp may get some highcard/lowcard hands to raise or push on you.

Luminous

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
ok how about A8+ and say 55+....is this reasonable? I actually don't think you get called by A8 and probably not 55 either, but giving you the benifit here. So how much better is 77 than 22?

EDIT: significantly better I mean...

[/ QUOTE ]

46.8% vs 38.8%, or a delta of 8%.

Against a random hand do you consider AQs to be significantly different from QTs? Because the difference between those two hands is LESS than the difference between 77 and 22 in your scenario.

Big difference.

eastbay

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Would you give any thought to calling and calling SB's push with 1500+?

[/ QUOTE ]

Limp folding = bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's advocating limp/calling though...unless he means limp/call SB and limp/fold to everyone else. Which yes, would be awful.

However, is limp/calling viable here? I mean, if the table is pretty aggro this seems like a possible place to double up and a limp may get some highcard/lowcard hands to raise or push on you.

Luminous

[/ QUOTE ]

limp calling is out of the question here. no way, no how.

[Nick M]

appreciate the reply...don't exactly know what the hell i'm looking at but thanks hahaha.

46.8% vs 38.8%, or a delta of 8%

what are you saying...77 wins 46.8% of the time, and 22 38.8%??? Sorry I'm not much of a math guy I just play. Big difference in results when the only hands that create a problem for 22 and not 77 is 55,66 and 77, in the range i choosed. Sure we are not missing each others point??? Thanks again!!!

[bones]

Real quick..

77 can make more straights. 77 can make a higher flush. 77 is counterfeited less. 77 will lose to set over set less.

[The Don]

I am not folding this hand under any circumstances. If I have > 1500 I am making it 400 (< 1500 I push).

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]
appreciate the reply...don't exactly know what the hell i'm looking at but thanks hahaha.

46.8% vs 38.8%, or a delta of 8%

what are you saying...77 wins 46.8% of the time, and 22 38.8%???


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

[ QUOTE ]

Sorry I'm not much of a math guy I just play. Big difference in results when the only hands that create a problem for 22 and not 77 is 55,66 and 77, in the range i choosed. Sure we are not missing each others point??? Thanks again!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

I then restated it in terms for "guys that just play" by saying that the difference between 77 and 22 in that situation is bigger than the difference between AQs and QTs against a random hand.

By thinking about it only in terms of 55, 66, 77, and "otherwise it is a coin flip" is to miss a lot of smaller advantages of 77 that add up. Bones mentioned the important ones.

eastbay

[Nick M]

that is one hot avatar...

so you're saying that coupled with 55,66, and 77 makes it an 8% difference...interesting.

[The Yugoslavian]

[ QUOTE ]
that is one hot avatar...


[/ QUOTE ]

It is if you don't look at the face...

If you want to look at a face please don't go near Skipperbob's posts but feel free to read all of mine, /images/graemlins/smirk.gif.

Yugoslav

[Nick M]

so an 8% difference is big. That is 77 vs 22. So i guess there is basically no difference between 77 and 55. Weird thing this low ceiling style of playing. Don't really get it. But I guess it works if you play it perfect. Thanks for the info.

[johnnybeef]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not folding this hand under any circumstances. If I have > 1500 I am making it 400 (< 1500 I push).

[/ QUOTE ]

and then when a super aggro maniac like myself comes over top of you with a bigger stack then the one you have, what are you doing then?

[AlphaWice]

it has already been discussed that pushing is slightly +CEV.

am I the only one thinking about minraise-push any flop?

[Nick M]

yes that winking navy guy freaks me out...

[45suited]

[ QUOTE ]
am I the only one thinking about minraise-push any flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

YES

[raptor517]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not folding this hand under any circumstances. If I have > 1500 I am making it 400 (< 1500 I push).

[/ QUOTE ]

this is awful advice. holla