Value bet this?

[Paxosmotic]

I apologize for the formatting of this hand.

Villain in this hand is loose pre-flop but generally tight/passive post-flop.

Dealt K/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif

1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP1 raises, 3 folds, Hero calls, 2 folds, 1 call

FLOP: 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif 2/images/graemlins/club.gif Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif [7.5 sb]

Checked to hero who bets, all call

TURN: 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif [5.25 bb]

Check, MP1 bets, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds

RIVER: J/images/graemlins/spade.gif

Check, check

1. Am I missing a value bet on the river when I do this? I would normally read that aggression as his pocket 8s becoming a set, but am I getting too frightened by an out of nowhere bet on the turn?

2. I'm guaranteed position throughout the hand, should I be looking to 3-bet KQs from the button?

[MHarris]

I'm not looking to 3-bet this preflop against a relatively early raiser.

The turn donkbet is weird, but I don't think it indicates 88, since I'd expect 88 to look for a check-raise. I'm thinking at this point I want to get in 2-3BB before showdown. Against a more aggressive opponent, I'd raise, and I'd just call a passive player. If/when checked to on the river, I'd bet.

[ecooke]

Dubious turn bet - raise. This will knock out UTG+1 and MP1 will let you know if really has that 2. Since you were going to call anyway you have invested the same amount, knocked out UTG+1 and now have the option to value bet the river (when you improve or when you don't, if he doesn't reraise the turn I will bet the river, if he does reraise, I will fold) or check behind if he is tricky enough to merit it.

[Grease]

Don't 3-bet PF. You're behind any A and have don't have an equity edge (unless it's a LAG and you isolate, but you knew that. /images/graemlins/wink.gif)

So yeah, bet the river. Since he's passive, I would shy away from raising the turn, but against a more aggressive, I would.

[Grease]

MP1 does not have a 2. He's passive and raised PF. However, knocking UTG+1 out would be nice, but getting 3-bet here by MP1 would blow hard-core. He could even call here with a blow.

I still may decide that I like raising better here though. I'm still thinking.

[Grease]

How passive is MP1 post-flop? Do you have any PT numbers or reads? I am thinking I may raise the turn now, but if he's uber passive, then I wouldn't.

Sorry for all the questions.

[jjacky]

i would definitely bet the river. your 88 read was dubious on the turn and if it would have been correct he would probably not have checked the river. he didn't play it like a hand that could beat you (AA, KK, AQ). my best guess is he has AK or JJ. and he might very well call you off with those hands.

pre flop play is fine

[jjacky]

i think a raise on the turn would be a very bad play.

i don't see why it would be nice to knock UTG+1. if he has a flush draw or a better hand than hero's he won't fold. if he doesn't, the pot odds do not justify a call for him, even if hero calls.

against MP1 we have the same problem: we have him beat he will fold, if not, he won't fold and probably 3-bet it. call and then call or bet the river has a higher expectation if the KQ is good and the same if it is not.