Depressing stat

[Toro]

For Yankee fans.

The Yankees are 0 for 25 in games they score 3 runs or less.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
For Yankee fans.

The Yankees are 0 for 25 in games they score 3 runs or less.

[/ QUOTE ]

Winning percentages...

0 RS: 0.000
1 RS: 0.078
2 RS: 0.243
3 RS: 0.322

ML Average.

[touchfaith]

We didn't need a sporting events forum, we need a Yankmees/Blahston forum so that they can be ignored as a whole.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
We didn't need a sporting events forum, we need a Yankmees/Blahston forum so that they can be ignored as a whole.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, we needed a forum for douchebags with oral diarrhea. You'd fit right in.

Go [censored] yourself.

[andyfox]

The Yankees have a mediocre team. They have terrible starting pitching. So they will go through stretches where they play terrible. But since they have pretty good hitting, they will go through stretches where they are pretty good. And as they have only five guys who can hit, if two or three of them go through a tough stretch, they will go through some weeks where they don't score very many runs.

All this adds up to 37-37. They will win somewhere betwen 78 and 85 games. They cannot sustain great play for more than a few weeks at a time because they have a mediocre starting pitching. Period.

[Toro]

"Re: Aren't you guys getting tired of this?"

To tell the truth, Andy, yes. I wish they would win one so I could stop.

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
All this adds up to 37-37

[/ QUOTE ]

Yet the ignorant public hasn't caught on to the fact that they have crappy pitching and are mediocre overall. They keep getting heavily favored in every line without merit and paying off handsomely to all of us who continaully fade them for value.

I'm really surprised there is so much baseball talk on this forum while the Sports Betting forum is a vast wasteland when it comes to baseball discussions. I thought we were all gamblers here?

[The Armchair]

[ QUOTE ]
The Mets have a mediocre team. They have terrible relief pitching. So they will go through stretches where they play terribly. But since they have pretty good hitting and sometimes stellar starting pitching, they will go through stretches where they are pretty good. And as they have only three and a half guys who can hit, if one or two of them go through a tough stretch, they will go through some weeks where they don't score very many runs.

All this adds up to 37-37. They will win somewhere betwen 78 and 85 games. They cannot sustain great play for more than a few weeks at a time because they have a bad bullpen and feast-or-famine lineup. Period.

[/ QUOTE ]

Works for us, too.

[sublime]

toro-

this stat isnt really depressing for a yankee fan. its pretty meaningless. if you take a current .500 team you should be able to find a 'depressing' stat or two. a .380 team and you could find a few more.

[The Armchair]

[ QUOTE ]
toro-

this stat isnt really depressing for a yankee fan. its pretty meaningless. if you take a current .500 team you should be able to find a 'depressing' stat or two. a .380 team and you could find a few more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, it's rather meaningful. This is a team that has grabbed up a lot of SP talent over the years, and when you are so bad when your offense doesn't show up, that demonstrates how badly this team's starters are doing.

[sublime]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
toro-

this stat isnt really depressing for a yankee fan. its pretty meaningless. if you take a current .500 team you should be able to find a 'depressing' stat or two. a .380 team and you could find a few more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, it's rather meaningful. This is a team that has grabbed up a lot of SP talent over the years, and when you are so bad when your offense doesn't show up, that demonstrates how badly this team's starters are doing.

[/ QUOTE ]

i suck at figuring this stuff out. if the league average winning % is .160 when scoring three or less (this cant be correct. a weighted average must be given to 0-3 runs scored), the team is .500 overall then what are the chances of a team going 0-24 over a given stretch when scoring three or less? maybe i can post this in probability.

jack- can you help me with some stats. like how much more often teams land on zero runs as opposed to 3.

[sublime]

bump-

i want to figure this out

[Toro]

[ QUOTE ]
bump-

i want to figure this out

[/ QUOTE ]

They just said it on ESPN. Seems the Mets have won 8 games this year scoring 3 runs or less. Wheels falling off the wagon in the 7th for the yanks.

[sublime]

no i want to figure out the statistical possibilty that it happens.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
no i want to figure out the statistical possibilty that it happens.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it isn't .322. You'd have to figure out how many times they've scored each (0, 1, 2, and 3) and find out their expected won-loss. It's probably somewhere around 5 or 6 games under projection... which isn't hard to do, especially because these games are likely close (see: White Sox and Nats playing way above projeciton in 1 run games).

[sublime]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
no i want to figure out the statistical possibilty that it happens.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it isn't .322. You'd have to figure out how many times they've scored each (0, 1, 2, and 3) and find out their expected won-loss. It's probably somewhere around 5 or 6 games under projection... which isn't hard to do, especially because these games are likely close (see: White Sox and Nats playing way above projeciton in 1 run games).

[/ QUOTE ]

too much work. if my intuition serves me correctly, the 'stat' is just a statistical abberation and doesnt really mean anything (considering thier overall record of course)

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
no i want to figure out the statistical possibilty that it happens.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it isn't .322. You'd have to figure out how many times they've scored each (0, 1, 2, and 3) and find out their expected won-loss. It's probably somewhere around 5 or 6 games under projection... which isn't hard to do, especially because these games are likely close (see: White Sox and Nats playing way above projeciton in 1 run games).

[/ QUOTE ]

5.38 games to be exact.

However, if you factor in the fact that the Yanks have allowed 0 runs 5 times, 1 run 3 times, and 2 runs 8 times, then you get adjusted WPCT's of
0 runs - .000
1 run - .0667
2 runs - .1067
3 runs - .2133

which projects to just 3.37 wins for their 25 games with 3 or fewer runs.

[pryor15]

seems amazing to me that lineup would be held to 3 runs or less 25 times already this year. and you'd think they'd win a 3-1 game or something.

[Afterh0urs]

Assuming that a team has a .160 probability of winning when scoring 3 runs or less, then the probability of them undergoing an 0 for 24 streak is 1/65.66.

[Toro]

The depressing stat streak finally ended at 26 with the Yanks 1-0 victory a few days ago.