anyone let this one go?

[aba20]

Anyone find a fold either on the turn or river?


Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls, CO calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls, MP3 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, MP3 calls, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, UTG folds, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (12 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

River: (15 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, MP3 calls.

Final Pot: 18 BB

[einbert]

No, you're probably beat but the pot is too large IMO. Plus you have 4 outs vs his most likely holding on the turn.

I think he will play AJ this way often enough for a profitable river call.

[kamelion44]

I'm not sure I call preflop, but maybe I'm just playing too many tables. As far as the postflop action, how aggressive is your opponent? No read, not even PV stats?

[SinCityGuy]

On the turn you get counterfeited, but you're getting 14 to 1 to call on your 4-outer (you only need 10.5 to 1). The SB most likely has AA, KK or QQ, with a much lesser chance of JJ.

I would fold the river.

[aba20]

no reads at the time. But now I know he is very aggressive. I also feel Like once I get to the river I need to call one more bet just based on the size of the pot.

[jjacky]

yes, i think so too. you can't fold the turn because you have 4 outs and you can't fold the river for one more bet in this big pot.
however, i would have folded preflop, but i think it was close.

[ecooke]

All four of your outs are live so the Turn is a clear call as long as you can be sure MP3 will not raise behind.
With that said, I can't put the SB on any hands you can beat on the River (assuming not tricky opponent): AA, KK, QQ, JJ. River fold looks standard against ABC opponent - otherwise since the pot is very large you should call.

[Grease]

This is exactly the situation you don't want to be in on the river, but you're there, and you have to make the best of it. There is a small probability he could have AJ. Is it more than 6%? I think so...

I would call with a tissue in hand.

PF is pretty marginal, but I won't knock it. One more limper would have been nice, but it's not the most debatable street.

[ecooke]

[ QUOTE ]
PF is pretty marginal, but I won't knock it. One more limper would have been nice, but it's not the most debatable street.

[/ QUOTE ]
With all due respect, the PF call for one more from the BB is the most -EV play in this hand. All J5s has going for it is the s (4th nut flush!). No big card, no connectedness, no nothing. This hand is junk.

Not folding folped top two against a villain likely to have a big pocket pair will not a long term loser make. But playing any two suited from the BB for a raise is huge mistake.

[Grease]

Player is getting 9-1 when it's all said and done (assuming no other raises), and he's got position on the raiser.

I would definitely play this here, especially because he can raise the SB if he flops a good hand. It's less likely he'll get trapped in a raising war if he flops a flush draw. Do you never play J5s against a raise, or aren't there enough people in?

[ecooke]

[ QUOTE ]
I would definitely play this here, especially because he can raise the SB if he flops a good hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
The equity for J5s is just so small that flopping a "good hand" won't happen often enough to make calling profitable. Getting caught with action action on a lone 4th nut flush draw is also bad news as drawing hands prefer very passive play.

[Grease]

You totally missed the whole odds thing I put up. 9-1! It's huge. What sort of overlay do you need here to play this? If you flop a good hand, you are in great position to build a big pot. Don't assume another flush draw is out PF either.

[MHarris]

I play hands like this from the BB against a PF raise and show a small profit in such situations. 9:1 is about what I'm looking for to kick in the call here.

[MHarris]

The turn card counterfeited you, and you have the correct odds to peel one off, since it appears your 4 outs are all live. But that's the last dime I'm putting in this pot without improvement. I hate advocating a fold for a single river bet in a big pot, but I really don't think you're good 1 in 16 here, unless SB is a real LAG.

[ecooke]

I live for pot odds and Howard Lederer is my poker hero, I did not overlook the 9:1 odds given extended by the pot.
Personally, I don't think there much value in ever playing J5s - but if UTG raised and 7 or 8 cold called I can't imagine I'd fold getting 17:1.

[mtdoak]

Looks like you were counterfitted on the turn....however, you should call down.

[aba20]

I used to not call in situations like this and it used to be a leak in my game. Getting 9-1 you need to make this call. This was exactly the flop I was looking for and made the guys with Aces pay. But making this call you must beable to let go on the flop if it appears you are dominated (or counterfeited, which I couldn't do).