a couple 15-30 semibluffs

[mike l.]

15-30 good live game. 7 handed in both hands. ive been playing reasonably and showndown nothing yet. must move game so line up is pretty new and always changing.

hand 1 reasonable seeming button openraises, sb calls, i call w/ 76o.

the flop is A98 rainbow. checked to button who bets, we both call.

turn is 3. sb checks, i bet.

hand 2: i have AdQc in the bb. utg fishy limps, next fish raises, my guess is his raise means something but im not too sure so i call. utg calls. 3 of us.

the flop is 7c3d2d. checked to raiser who bets, we both call.

the turn is 7d. i bet.

good bets or spewing chips?

[DpR]

Both would annoy me if I was the guy behind you and didnt have a hand......I think that means they are both OK. I like the second a lot better than the first though.

[Gabe]

I agree. 2nd better than the 1st. the 1st you'll have to bluff again on the river most of the time.

[Michael Emery]

I"m not so sure I like the first as it just seems too likely with the bet and call that your behind to an ace here. If your not behind to an ace, but something like pocket tens instead, you could still be called down as your bet out on the turn dosent appear that strong, to me anyway. Since you have to call a bet it isnt all that bad. Being raised would just be a discomfort. I like the line that you took on the second hand. Hope they worked out.

Mike Emery

[brick]

I like check-raising the turn in hand two.

[roy_miami]

A checkraise on the flop in hand 1 would be pretty sweet.

Hand 2 I like.

[brick]

[ QUOTE ]
A checkraise on the flop in hand 1 would be pretty sweet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed.

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
hand 1 reasonable seeming button openraises, sb calls, i call w/ 76o.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the SB folded you have a marginal call against all but the toughest buttons. But with the SB in you have one opponent too many to outplay and one or two opponents too few to provide value on your draws. IMO this is a fold BTF.

[ QUOTE ]
the flop is A98 rainbow. checked to button who bets, we both call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting out and checkraising have merit, but so does calling.

[ QUOTE ]
turn is 3. sb checks, i bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I was under 30 I'd call this a "donk bet". If I was the button I'd wonder whe you didn't CR or bet the flop and chose to bet now. I'd be calling down or raising very light here. OTOH, had you checked there is a good chance the button might check behind given two of you called the flop bet. But the SB called too, so he probably isn't going anywhere when you bet, even if the button folds.

[ QUOTE ]
hand 2: i have AdQc in the bb. utg fishy limps, next fish raises, my guess is his raise means something but im not too sure so i call. utg calls. 3 of us.

the flop is 7c3d2d. checked to raiser who bets, we both call.

the turn is 7d. i bet.

good bets or spewing chips?

[/ QUOTE ]

There was some merit in betting the flop.

Turn bet is at worst a small mistake, probably a good play. Big advantage is that you squeeze out the middle guy and perhaps promote your ovrercards, pre flop raiser won't put you on the seven but he is hard pressed to pressure you without an overpair. And if he does you have outs.

Don't take my input too seriously though, I'm so tired I'm almost comatose.

~ Rick

[Ryno]

I saved a post from you from way back, on how to play SoCal low-mid limit games. It is gospel and you seem to have forgotten, so I repost it here:

the part about playing smaller limits tighter was not. the rake is high and the players are unbluffable. starting with a really good hand makes it so much easier to win. it's like you just sit there and they give you money. it's lazy poker. i hate playing a lot of hands in little games (even though i know i give up some edge and the ed's book has the hand selection right on target, it's more like how i play 20-40 and up) because it's like getting a paper cut and then bleeding to death from it. you sit down to play a little 8-16 you decide you are the god of all poker compared to these people and you play everything and then suddenly youre stuck $600. yuck. it's easier to just get a big pair and not even look at the board and just bet and bet and bet and once in awhile when they raise look at the board and see the straight and fold.

[Justin A]

I especially like hand 2 because there's a good chance it's not a semibluff but a valuebet.

[mike l.]

i didnt c/r the flop because to me that screams draw, and i think even medicore players have picked up on that. stop and go (or gaybet or donkbet) screams weak ace.

[anatta]

[ QUOTE ]
i didnt c/r the flop because to me that screams draw, and i think even medicore players have picked up on that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, the problem with the check-raise is with the guy calling in the middle it looks drawy. (Still, its EV neutral and if they have nothing they will struggle to fight back even if they suspect draw) If your check-raise comes from the SB here its works much better as this looks like a limit the field with an ace that you called the button raise with. Especially since I am playing tight and MUST have the ace this works. (only fails when BB calls or Button has ace!).

"stop and go (or gaybet or donkbet) screams weak ace."

This is a good observation and I will try to remember! I guess I missed your Vegas trip guys, I am on the road and won't be back til July 11th. Its good to know they still play poker in that town when I leave...and the games are good no less.

[onegymrat]

Hi Mike,

Hand 1: I don't like this call pf because not only do you have an invader in SB, but you are holding a weak hand. At the same time, you will run into these situations too often and now have to find a way to take it away. Your turn bet not only looks odd, but if you are representing a big blind special with a weak two pair, those who know your aggressive play will expect a check-raise rather than a bet out.

Best case scenario, button has [censored] and folds. SB rethinks his small pp and folds also. But most of the time, one will have at least a weak ace or some ridiculous draw and hit some backdoor pair and call down.

[mike l.]

they both worked.

in hand 1 the guy on the button thought and thought and looked at his hand and folded, indicating a pair. sb folded too.

in hand two the preflop raiser thought and thought and folded black AKo face up.

i ran over to gabe all giddy and said "hehehhehhehheheheheee" and then ran back to my table.

[DrSavage]

In a live game I would just bet the flop in hand 1.
Hand 2 is fine i think.

[Mikey]

"i ran over to gabe all giddy and said "hehehhehhehheheheheee" and then ran back to my table."

LOL.

[skp]

I didn't like hand 2 at all. That's the prototypical donkbet. the chances of you making someone believe that you have a 7 (or any kind of hand) is about zero. I only say "about zero" because apparently this particular opponent bought it.

[andyfox]

"the 1st you'll have to bluff again on the river most of the time."

Unless the other guy has 6 high.

[DiceyPlay]

If Mike's holding in the second hand was the same as it was in the first, Mike would have the 7. Reading how Mike plays, him holding a 7 doesn't seem all that unlikely.

But I suppose betting out on the turn when he makes trips is unlikely for him.

But if I knew what you or he looked like, I'd stay far away! Luckily I don't think you guys play the lower limits.

-DP

[andyfox]

You guys really think the check-raise in 15-30 screams draw? In my experience in the 15-30 it means an ace. Check-call means draw.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys really think the check-raise in 15-30 screams draw? In my experience in the 15-30 it means an ace. Check-call means draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I think betting out is much more likely to be a draw also.

[elysium]

hi mike

wanted to thread this earlier but as always of late, had business to attend that has been cutting into my time a little.

basically, after check-calling, betting out is not a great idea in situations where you want the fold. when you check-call the flop, you are really making the first part of your turn play. what you ideally want is for your opponent to think back to the check-call on the flop when you make your play on the turn. so you often check-call the flop to make your opponent think back on your flop action at the point of the turn.

if you aren't going to jar your opponent's thinking process by making a commanding move on the turn, then you usually should not check-call the flop when getting the fold on the turn is important to the sucessful outcome of the hand. it would be better to check-raise the flop, in that case, and betout on the turn. you would then be representing a value betout.

both of these strategies have a lot of risk, and you should only go for the foldout when you think there is a decent chance of getting the fold. eh, i hear you mike, but it never hurts to go over the basics. and besides, i'm typing here, FWIW.

i love to type.

when do you check-call the flop, and check-raise the turn for the foldout? and against whom? well, usually, you check-call/ check-raise the good player, and you check-raise/ betout the player who thinks he good. if you cannot decide whether or not the player will release, but think that he might within an acceptable range vs. pot odds, then do not check-call the flop, but rather check-raise the flop with the intent to betout on the turn. importantly, when you aren't quite sure that your opponent will release often enough to give a foldout attempt clear-cut +ev, then only check-raise the flop with hands that you think have some reasonable chance of being in the lead vis-a-vis pot odds. never attempt to foldout when you are not sure that you're getting correct to do so AND you think you are trailing in the hand more times than the pot is offering.

'he thinks he's a good player and can recognize when he's beat'; chekc-raise the flop, betout on the turn IF he will foldout correct to the odds offered by the pot.

'he is a good player and can recognize when a foldout attempt is being made'; check-call the flop, check-raise the turn IF he will fold correct.

'he may fold, but i'm not sure. i think i'm trailing, but i'm not sure that that i'm trailing'; never check-call the flop, instead check-raise with the intent on betting out on the turn.

and if you know that you're trailing, never attempt to foldout unless you know that you're getting correct odds to do so. if you know that you're trailing then you must know that your opponent will foldout correct to the odds being offered.

there are many exceptions to the above. for example, you may have recently been check-raising a lot with the goods, and may find a flop check-raise will give you a better chance of getting the fold than will a turn check-raise, even if your against a good player who usually will not fold to the turn betout. if there is a good chance that because of your past play, your opponent will think outside of the box in this one hand, then by all means do whatever it takes to take down the pot right then and there.

let's see what you did here in this one mike. i'm looking at hand 2.

what's going on here? you call pre-flop? you can't call pre-flop mike. for crying out loud here already. either you're leading pre-flop, or you're trailing. if you are entering in with that, you either will raise the fish or you will fold. you must never call because you cannot call pre-flop. you can fold pre-flop if you can't raise, but you can never call. why didn't you raise? that's the reason you should have mucked pre-flop. and don't tell me you're slowplaying a little.

you represent trips on the turn. mike, if these opponents will buy that, then you should try to cap pre-flop with that monster.

this is all my fault. i haven't been around to beat the idea of thinking ahead into your alls brains, and i'm coming back to a board that has forgotten what this game is about. for crying out loud man, you aren't going to foldout those two delinquents though you push all-in. and you're trailing. one of them has a 2 or whatever it is. he will call you the whole way. fold on the turn if it's bet.

i'm starting to lose my patients with you people. we're going to stop posting these ludicrous wishbone hands, and begin a 4 week reorientation work study that will put a little backbone back into your game. there shall be no live gaming of any kind during this 4 week period. i'm sending everybody back to hfap and top. i'm bringing tommy angelo back. tommy will be bringing with him his sidekick helpmate mickey muck. you will be able to read tommy's lips about a mickey starter; 'if mickey don't muck,"it's pure gold"'. and that's what you people will soon learn to start with.

and with any luck, mason and the rebi will pitch in maybe on the lecture circuit with a little at the table algebraic calculation of pot odds and stimulating heads-up drills with AJs against an isolated steal-raiser. sound bloody? how about them tag teaming with rick nebiolo and ray zee with an in-class demo on raising with your over-pair to cut down the field. i'll guarantee you this; you'll never see JJ in the same light again.

we're in for some much needed changes around here people. you are going to be taught to think at last by using your brain instead of your bankroll.

[mike l.]

"you are going to be taught to think at last by using your brain instead of your bankroll."

what if we're a little short on both? can we still attend the 4 week seminar?

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
"sound bloody? how about them tag teaming with rick nebiolo and ray zee with an in-class demo on raising with your over-pair to cut down the field."

[/ QUOTE ]

Tonight in NL my KK cut down the field to one opponent (both of us are very deep) with all the money in BTF. Opponent has QJs. Opponent flops two jacks. Five minutes later my AA cut down the field to one opponent with KQo. Lots of money put in BTF. Flop comes Q32. Rest of money goes in on the flop. River comes a queen.

I think you need to find a better teammate for ray zee /images/graemlins/grin.gif

~ Rick