Folding nutflush on river, -ev?? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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vipon

06-26-2005, 12:43 AM

me and my friend are arguing. He says getting roughly 12:1 I should call this. Im saying with turn action there is no way he doesnt at LEAST have a pair. DO I make a "Crying Call" here anyways? Villain is 28/8/25/25

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $3.
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 calls, Hero raises, 6 folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (8.33 SB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds.

Turn: (5.16 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps, Hero calls.

River: (13.16 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 14.16 BB

newholdemguy

06-26-2005, 12:54 AM

can your friend spell? cuz you can't. LOL (aruging)

i call. if you don't, re-read SSHE>

imported_leader

06-26-2005, 12:54 AM

hmmmmm...I think I'd be more likely to fold if he had just called you 3-bet. Since he didn't he could have a smaller flush. Getting 14-1, I guess I'd call.

28/8/25/25 is 25 his AF that's almost unbelievable even over a small sample. If it is 25, you have to call.

imported_leader

06-26-2005, 12:57 AM

[ QUOTE ]
can your friend spell? cuz you can't. LOL (aruging)

i call. if you don't, re-read SSHE>

[/ QUOTE ]

6 posts in and you're already throwing around bombs and justifying your positions be telling people to read SSHE. You have a bright future.

Grease

06-26-2005, 01:04 AM

I would call because there is a very small chance he has a smaller flush, and you are getting a huge overlay. Call, cry, and hope.

You only have to be right 7% or so of the time.

Notorious G.O.B.

06-26-2005, 01:12 AM

I think there is a good chance he has a lower flush. I mean, considering the action on the turn, he was either already full, maybe had a queen and has quads, or has a flush. You pretty much have to call.

Skadet

06-26-2005, 01:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Flop: (8.33 SB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you can safely rule out the Q here. The flat call says "drawing hand" to me. Thinking about it more, I think 66 is a possibility. A flat call gives you a chance to catch a spade.

[ QUOTE ]

Turn: (5.16 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps, Hero calls.

[/ QUOTE ]
Unless UTG is suicidal (or has 66), you're way ahead here. Also, this tells me - again - he doesn't have a Q.

[ QUOTE ]

River: (13.16 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero folds.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hmm. A hard one. Either you're way ahead, or totally destroyed. Like I said before, I'm betting against the Q. 14:1 pot odds make it a tough lay-down.

I call. I'm thinking he has a lower flush, but if I'm beat I want to see that 66!

Jaskohouston

06-26-2005, 02:05 AM

More than anything else this hand seems to fall under the "Don't fold for one bet on the river in a large pot" variety.

chesspain

06-26-2005, 02:11 AM

Now tell me why he can't have a smaller flush?

ihardlyknowher

06-26-2005, 02:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Now tell me why he can't have a smaller flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

Especially since you showed aggression on the flop. Thus, he probably puts you on a Q and doesn't worry about the fact that he doesn't have the nut flush.

chesspain

06-26-2005, 02:30 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Now tell me why he can't have a smaller flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

Especially since you showed aggression on the flop. Thus, he probably puts you on a Q and doesn't worry about the fact that he doesn't have the nut flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero raised preflop and then bet the flop last to act after two players checked. I hardly think that this would cause anyone to put Hero on AQ/KQ.

einbert

06-26-2005, 02:33 AM

bad fold

ihardlyknowher

06-26-2005, 02:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Now tell me why he can't have a smaller flush?

[/ QUOTE ]

Especially since you showed aggression on the flop. Thus, he probably puts you on a Q and doesn't worry about the fact that he doesn't have the nut flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero raised preflop and then bet the flop last to act after two players checked. I hardly think that this would cause anyone to put Hero on AQ/KQ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Combine it with the turn bet/3-bet, and villain could very well think it is safe to cap without the nut flush. Thus, making his play consistent with that holding. Also, don't KQ and AQ get raised preflop a lot?

chesspain

06-26-2005, 03:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Combine it with the turn bet/3-bet, and villain could very well think it is safe to cap without the nut flush. Thus, making his play consistent with that holding. Also, don't KQ and AQ get raised preflop a lot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Given Villain's likely aggressiveness (based upon his PT stats, even at 2.5 rather than 25), he's not going to rush to put Hero on AQ/KQ as you seem to want to do. Hero could easily have a hand like AA/KK with a spade. And whereas villain's flop/turn play could easily be trip queens, I think it could just as easily be a lower flush. However, if villain has a baby flush, he should pretty much know he's dead on the river, and should simply checkfold unless he think Hero was way overplaying AK with one spade on the turn.

However, since the pot contains 14BB at the end, I can't see folding to what may be a desparation bet/fold bluff by an aggressive player who can't bear to see how his baby flush went bad.

ihardlyknowher

06-26-2005, 03:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Combine it with the turn bet/3-bet, and villain could very well think it is safe to cap without the nut flush. Thus, making his play consistent with that holding. Also, don't KQ and AQ get raised preflop a lot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Given Villain's likely aggressiveness (based upon his PT stats, even at 2.5 rather than 25), he's not going to rush to put Hero on AQ/KQ as you seem to want to do. Hero could easily have a hand like AA/KK with a spade. And whereas villain's flop/turn play could easily be trip queens, I think it could just as easily be a lower flush. However, if villain has a baby flush, he's pretty much dead on the river, and should simply checkfold unless he think Hero was way overplaying AK with one spade on the turn.

However, since the pot contains 14BB at the end, I can't see folding to what may be a desparation bluff by an aggressive player.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really think many people expect you to 3-bet AA/KK on the turn with that board? Any hand that warrants a raise on the turn, has AA & KK beat.

chesspain

06-26-2005, 04:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]

You really think many people expect you to 3-bet AA/KK on the turn with that board? Any hand that warrants a raise on the turn, has AA & KK beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Remember that Villain doesn't know what Hero is holding--and he certainly can't know that Hero is holding a big spade. The read on Villain is that he is AGGRESSIVE. This means that he could be checkraising here with a Q, or with a baby flush, or even with a hand like 88/99/AJ with a spade, which which he could be loose enough to have called that flop. Until Hero three-bets, Villain might think he could push Hero off of a big pair, especially if Hero has no spade.

So no, I do not think Hero is automatically behind when he first faces this checkraise.

And on that note, I'm off to bed.

Jeff W

06-26-2005, 04:09 AM

Call. He will have a flush 1/15 times.

Btw, it is not at all clear what those statistics mean. I can't tell which one is hands, which one is AF, which one is WtSD...

Notorious G.O.B.

06-26-2005, 05:26 AM

Who knows, maybe he bet his flush before glancing at the river card. I've done that. Or, maybe he's high.

psyduck

06-26-2005, 06:10 AM

Are you kidding me? Of course I call. Villain will have a smaller flush more than 1/14 times. I know that the flop smoothcall and the turn action reeks of a queen, but villain isn't going to be capping when there's 3 to a flush on the board. A smaller flush is quite likely. In fact, the fact that the queen came out HELPS your hand, because it makes it less likely that he has the last queen (using Baye's formula I think...).

Jesus christ, what a horrible fold.

darker_days

06-26-2005, 06:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Now tell me why he can't have a smaller flush?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Especially since you showed aggression on the flop. Thus, he probably puts you on a Q and doesn't worry about the fact that he doesn't have the nut flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is villian really going to bet into the hero thinking he might fold quads?

jjacky

06-26-2005, 03:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Flop: (8.33 SB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero bets, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think you can safely rule out the Q here. The flat call says "drawing hand" to me. Thinking about it more, I think 66 is a possibility. A flat call gives you a chance to catch a spade.

[ QUOTE ]

Turn: (5.16 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG caps, Hero calls.

[/ QUOTE ]
Unless UTG is suicidal (or has 66), you're way ahead here. Also, this tells me - again - he doesn't have a Q.

[ QUOTE ]

River: (13.16 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero folds.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hmm. A hard one. Either you're way ahead, or totally destroyed. Like I said before, I'm betting against the Q. 14:1 pot odds make it a tough lay-down.

I call. I'm thinking he has a lower flush, but if I'm beat I want to see that 66!

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't think you can rule out a queen given the flop action. if he has a queen he might slow play it. he can't get a flush draw to fold anyway.

the turn action looks like a boat, but might be a lower flush imo.

i agree with you that hero is way ahead or totally destroyed on the river since a split is impossible here /images/graemlins/wink.gif

but seriously: i agree that hero gets proper odds to call.

baronzeus

06-26-2005, 03:50 PM

He'll have quad Q here more often than a lower flush.

ihardlyknowher

06-26-2005, 04:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So no, I do not think Hero is automatically behind when he first faces this checkraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have agreed with this all along.

aK13

06-30-2005, 04:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
More than anything else this hand seems to fall under the "Don't fold for one bet on the river in a large pot" variety.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most overused concept ever.

jason_t

06-30-2005, 04:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
More than anything else this hand seems to fall under the "Don't fold for one bet on the river in a large pot" variety.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most overused concept ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ironic (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=smallholdem&Number=2759134 &Forum=,All_Forums,&Words=&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&M ain=2757913&Search=true&where=&Name=30613&daterang e=&newerval=&newertype=&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyp rev=#Post2759134).

SippinSoma

06-30-2005, 05:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
More than anything else this hand seems to fall under the "Don't fold for one bet on the river in a large pot" variety.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most overused concept ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ironic (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=smallholdem&Number=2759134 &Forum=,All_Forums,&Words=&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&M ain=2757913&Search=true&where=&Name=30613&daterang e=&newerval=&newertype=&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyp rev=#Post2759134).

[/ QUOTE ]

Owned.

DCIAce

06-30-2005, 05:13 PM

I think it's an easy call. I think you win this hand at least 10% of the time against J /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif or something similar.

DocMartin

07-01-2005, 12:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ironic (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=smallholdem&Number=2759134 &Forum=,All_Forums,&Words=&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&M ain=2757913&Search=true&where=&Name=30613&daterang e=&newerval=&newertype=&olderval=&oldertype=&bodyp rev=#Post2759134)

[/ QUOTE ]

That was funny. I dont have the balls to fold here either.