kamrann
06-25-2005, 09:10 PM
Could anyone actually fold this? If I do I'm down to 1600 and its a straight race between the three of us to make the money.
Party Poker $50 + $5, Big Blind is 400 (4 handed)
<font color="#008800">Hero (2070)</font>
UTG (1545)
BTN (1635)
SB (4750)
Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
2 folds, <font color="#CC0000">SB goes all-in for 4750</font>, <font color="#008800">Hero goes all-in for 2070</font>, SB is returned 2680.
Flop: 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000CC">(2 players)</font>
Turn: 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000CC">(2 players)</font>
River: 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000CC">(2 players)</font>
Total Pot: 4140
I called, he had 65o. I don't own Eastbay's tool, but I did some ICM calculations, and if I did them right, I needed an EV of about 0.63 to call here. AKo just barely makes that against any two, and against tighter ranges drops below.
Now, taking into account ICM's flaws, there are arguments both ways. If I double up, I can be the one doing the bullying, so I'd probably have a slightly higher equity than ICM says. On the other hand, if I fold, I'm in a slightly better situation than the other two short stacks, since I'm on their right so I can attack their blinds without having to get through the big stack.
So, can you really justifiably fold here? I wouldn't have believed it, but ICM seems to say so, unless I buggered my calculations. Thoughts?
Party Poker $50 + $5, Big Blind is 400 (4 handed)
<font color="#008800">Hero (2070)</font>
UTG (1545)
BTN (1635)
SB (4750)
Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
2 folds, <font color="#CC0000">SB goes all-in for 4750</font>, <font color="#008800">Hero goes all-in for 2070</font>, SB is returned 2680.
Flop: 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000CC">(2 players)</font>
Turn: 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000CC">(2 players)</font>
River: 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000CC">(2 players)</font>
Total Pot: 4140
I called, he had 65o. I don't own Eastbay's tool, but I did some ICM calculations, and if I did them right, I needed an EV of about 0.63 to call here. AKo just barely makes that against any two, and against tighter ranges drops below.
Now, taking into account ICM's flaws, there are arguments both ways. If I double up, I can be the one doing the bullying, so I'd probably have a slightly higher equity than ICM says. On the other hand, if I fold, I'm in a slightly better situation than the other two short stacks, since I'm on their right so I can attack their blinds without having to get through the big stack.
So, can you really justifiably fold here? I wouldn't have believed it, but ICM seems to say so, unless I buggered my calculations. Thoughts?