Learning the right level of aggressiveness

[Barry]

I am a relatively new player, having started playing in earnest last fall, and I am struggling to find the right balance between aggressiveness and too much risk. I play mostly 2/4 PP and visit the CT casinos at least once per month.

I played the following 3 hands last night. I would appreciate any thoughts and comments that you might have. I would characterize this table as loose, slightly aggressive with a mix of good and bad players. All in all it was a great night, made 50 BB in about 300 hands, which I needed as I had been on a losing streak for about a week.

Hand 1 was dealt immediately after I had AK and lost to AA.

I was dealt As Ah in UTG+2. I raise, all fold but the BB, who is a horrible player, who calls. $9 in the pot

Flop - Jc Qh 2h. BB bets, I raise, BB re-raises, I cap, BB calls. $25 in the pot

Turn - Ac BB bets, I raise, BB re-raises, I cap again. $57 in the pot.

River - 4c BB bets again.

When he bets the turn I have him on top 2 pair. Was I too aggressive on the flop or turn here? Is my read right? What should I do on the river?

Hand 2

I'm in the BB w/ 7c 7h. UTG calls, UTG+1 raises, CO, SB, me and UTG calls. 5 players see the flop w/ $20 in the pot.

Flop - 8h 4h 7s. Checked to preflop raiser who bets, CO calls, I checkraise, CO and UTG+1 calls. 3 players and $32 in the pot.

Turn - 5c. I bet, UTG+1 calls, CO raises, I re-raise, both call. Still 3 players w/ $68 in the pot.

River - 5d I bet, UTG+1 folds, CO raises.

Do I worry about 88 or 55 and call or do I re-raise a possible smaller boat or straight? Was I too aggressive earlier?

Hand 3

I’m in CO w/ As 9s. LP, I, SB, and BB call. 4 players and $8 in the pot.

Flop – Js 7h 8s. Checked to me, I bet with nut flush draw and gutshot straight draw, just less than even money to make my hand. SB folds, BB and LP call. 3 players and $14 in the pot.

Turn – 6c. Checked to me again, I bet, BB calls, LP folds. 2 players and $24 in the pot.

River – Jh. Pairs the board, I miss all my outs. Checked to me.

Do I bet out here? Was betting out on the flop and turn OK?

Sorry for the long post, but I would appreciate any insights. Results later.

Thanks,

Barry

[Homer]

Hand 1

Unless your opponent is a total maniac I think you have to just call on the river. You capped the flop and turn and he still bet into you on the river. I think at some point you have to give him credit for having a hand, horrible player or not. However, if you know that he won't bet/go to war with drawing hands, then you know you have him beat (since the only hand that beats you is KT). If this is the case then I would go ahead and raise and call a three-bet.

Hand 2

I would just call on the turn after being raised by CO. After you reraise and he calls, I would put him on a set. If he had a straight he would have reraised. He probably thinks you have the straight at this point. When you bet the river and he raises, I am nearly certain he doesn't have a straight. This means he either has 88, 44, or 55. He would have played all of these hands similarly on the flop and turn, most likely. There are 3 ways to have 88, 3 ways to have 44, and 1 way to have 55. So, you lose 4/7 times in this situation, meaning that a reraise is not good (especially since you will have to pay off a reraise from 88 and 55).

Hand 3

I would definitely bet the river. BB could have easily been on a flush draw, a gutshot straght draw, or something like a pair and a gutshot (97, 87, T6, etc). You want to bet to get him to fold lesser hands than yours, which I think he will do more than 1/7 of the time, especially with the top card pairing, making the bluff profitable. Incidentally, I would have raised preflop with this hand to isolate the LP limper. If you both miss on the flop, you can bet and he will fold, and if an ace flops, there is a good chance you will have the best hand.

-- Homer

[tewall]

Some comments on raising on the end in hand 2. The criteria for raising at the end is the same for betting. You want to have something like a 55% to 60% chance of winning when a raise is called. The key question isn't what are your chances of being ahead at this point, but what are the chances of your being called with a worse hand.

Sklansky's book "The Theory of Poker" has an excellent chapter on this topic.

[bad beetz]

1. Just call the river here, unless this guy is insane, he must have you beat, but I'm guessing he's insane and doesn't

2. I disagree with homer. I think you must re-raise the river. You're ahead of a lot of hands that would raise you here, 88 and 55 compose a small chunk of those hands. Reraise and cross your fingers.
Homer left out a few hands I think are possible, which include 2-pair hands on the turn with a five.

3. played just right. Yes, bet the river, this is a powerfull bluff against one opponent when you bet both the flop and the turn, he will have trouble not believing you.

[Homer]

On hand 2, I assumed that the opponent would not have 85, 75, or 45, since he had coldcalled preflop. But you are right, if there is a chance that the player has one of these hands, then you go ahead and reraise...

-- Homer

[bad beetz]

[Barry]

Hand 1

When he bets into me on the river, I change my read from top 2 pair to a set, which I beat. I raised here; when he reraised, it finally dawned on me, (broadway?; runner, runner flush?). I called and he turned over Kh Th for broadway and a $78 pot. Would anyone play his hand the same way on the flop with a flush and straight draw? I guess that he was even money to make his hand, but a reraise on the flop? This and the previous hand cost me $60. Ouch! The good news is that over the course of the next few hours he lost $250 to the table, most of which I got.

Hand 2

Having been stung by the 1st hand and others like it, I only called the river. He turned over 4d 4s for a smaller full house and I win a $53 pot. Whew. He later told me he read me for a straight. A tough beat for him. Looking at the hand again, perhaps I was too aggressive on the turn as any 6 beats me there and I’m left with perhaps 6 clean outs. On the other hand, that caused CO to read me for a straight and maybe got the extra bet from him on the river.

Hand 3

I bet out, LP folds, and I drag the pot. It might have been interesting if either a spade or T falls or even better Ts. It never occurred to me to raise preflop, with what I view as essentially a drawing hand.

Thanks for the comments; I will continue to work on this part of my game. It is much easier to think about these hands post mortem, but at 70-80 hands per hour, it’s hard to fully analyze the situation real time. Are there any useful memory items, rules of thumb, books, or tables to help? I have and continually refer to HPFAP and Theory of Poker.

My other leak is to know when I’m beat and letting go of a hand. Was hand 1, one of those? I’ll next try to post some hands illustrating that point.

[Tyler Durden]

I'll just do Hand One:

When he bets out again on the turn, you have to figure him for a strong hand (two pair or a set). But that's okay because you've spiked the ace, giving you the second nuts.
Your turn play is excellent. The only thing that beats you is KT. I think that he might have it. He may have been jamming the flop with his open ender and then continued on the turn when it came through. But you also said he's not very good, so may also be overplaying his hand with something you can beat.

Hand Two:

[Homer]

Hand 1

I'd play the same way on the flop with a monster draw like that, as it will get there more than half the time. I don't think you can lay down at any time during the hand. On the flop, there is still a good chance you are ahead, even when three-bet by your opponent. When you make top set on the turn, you are correct to go to war with this player, as you are ahead most of the time, and when you aren't, you have 10 outs to draw to. On the river, I think you need to be willing to accept that your opponent has broadway and simply call.

Thinking while playing

You will be able to analyze hands much more quickly in real-time as you gain experience. Part of it is that you will see similar situations arise over and over, and you will instinctively know what your opponent is likely to have. Part of it is that you will learn to put your opponent on a range of hands and use information gained throughout the hand to narrow that range of hands, until you are reasonably confident that your opponent has a certain hand (or a certain range of hands with a certain probability of him having each hand).

For example, when analyzing hand 2, my thought process on CO goes something like this (from your perspective):

Preflop: "He coldcalled. I know CO is a fairly bad player, so he could be coldcalling with a wide range of hands. He could have two face cards, a medium to small pocket pair, suited connectors, or connectors."

Flop: "He called the preflop raiser's bet. If he had a pocket pair bigger than 8's, he would have raised to narrow the field, so he probably doesn't have that. He could have two overcards, a flush draw, 55, 66, 56, 44, 88, or 9T."

Turn (On his raise): "He is not afraid of the strength I showed by checkraising the flop and leading the turn. I guess he doesn't have overcards, a flush draw, or 9T. So, he was either slowplaying a set (44, 55, 88) or has a straight (66, 56)."

Turn (On his call of the reraise): "If he had the straight he would have four-bet me. I am fairly certain that he doesn't have a straight. He probably thinks I have the straight, which means he has a set and called looking to fill on the river."

River (On his raise): "I checkraised the flop, bet and raised the turn, and now he is raising me on the river. He must have filled. He would not raise me with a straight here as my play indicates that I could be full. He must be raising me with a full house, thinking that I have the straight."

So, by having a thought process like this, you can effectively narrow his range of hands to 44, 55, and 88. I think the way the hand played out, each hand has an equal probability of being his holding, so you have 4 ways to be behind on the river and 3 ways to be ahead, which means that you shouldn't three-bet.

-- Homer

[Jim Easton]

Hand 1:

What hands would he play like that on the flop? Would he try to put you on a hand? Many low limit players don't seem to think about what you might have. He could possibly think you have AK, and he is way ahead with AQ or 22. Would he play KT, specifically KhTh that aggressively on the flop? I would raise on the river and make a crying call if he 3-bets and expect to see KT. I think his most likely hands are 22 or AQ, maybe QJ, assuming he would 3-bet preflop with QQ or JJ.

I do not think you were too agressive at all on this hand.

Hand 2:

What hands does the CO call 2 cold with preflop? Would he call 2 cold with 88? How would he play that 88? What does he think you have? Your check raise looks like a pot building check raise, rather than a narrow the field check raise. He might put you on a heart draw, or a str8, your play on the turn and river eliminates the flush. I would just call on the river. I think there is a good chance he has the 88. He also might have put you on 87s for 2 pair, and he is now raising an overpair, such as JJ or TT, which are probably more likely "call 2 cold hands".

Again, I don't think you were too aggressive at all.

Hand 3:

How reasonable is this opponent? Is he going to call with any pair? Your play could easily be top pair, rather than a draw. If he is going to call you down with any pair, I don't like a bet here. If he is capable of laying down a pair, bet. A quote that sticks in my head (I can't cite the source), is something along the lines of, "Who's the bigger fool, the calling station, or the good player who tries to bluff the calling station?"

[Jim Easton]

I posted my thoughts prior to reading your results.

Hand 1:
I would say he accidently played this one well on the flop. I don't like calling the raise from the BB with KT suited to take it heads up against an EP raise. Don't beat yourself up on this one, you played it well.

Hand 2:
Homer gave a great analysis. Calling 2 cold with 44 without many callers is very fishlike, add that to his notes.

Hand 3:
Well played. Add a player note that he will fold in that situation.

Your library is too small, add Mason's Poker Essays (all 3) and Lee Jones' WLLH.

Reading hands is mostly experience and knowledge of your opponent.

[Barry]

Great comments all. Especially the hand reading insights and library suggestions. Is Brunson's Super System still relevant?

Also, the biggest fool has to be the good player; the calling station doesn't know any better

[tewall]

Regarding analyzing hands in mid stream.

Do exactly what you're doing by thinking about the hands after you play them. Do the same thing with the different situations that are in HEFAP and the other books. Try to analyze them in general terms in terms of the type of hands each player has, the number of opponents and size of the pot.

Another good book which I don't think anyone mentioned is Brier and Ciaffone's book on Mid Limits Holdem play. It has several hundred problems to practice thinking on, and while written for Mid Limits there are many principles which apply to Low Limit play.

[Fitz]

Barry,

I'm really glad to see you posting here; this forum has helped my game more than any other one thing. Posting hands is especially helpful since it makes you think through the hand as you post it, and the feedback is usually excellent.
I always enjoy playing cards with you, and I'll look forward to reading your posts too.

[Ed Miller]

Hand 1: I would just call the river bet. This looks like Broadway.

Hand 2: You should reraise with your boat. You will be best here more than 2/3 of the time I think.

Hand 3: You made a large mistake by failing to raise preflop. You have a strong hand and need to be isolating the limper here. I would go ahead and fire once more, even though you do have an Ace to showdown. I think there is enough chance of pushing BB off a weak pair that a bet is correct.

[Jim Easton]

Whether to get SuperSystem depends on what you want out of a poker book. It is "The Bible" and most good players have read it. However, the structure of limit holdem has changed since it was written, so it won't help much for that game. Chip Reese's 7 card stud section is good and still valid. I'm really not qualified to comment on the other sections, as I don't play those other forms of poker. If you want help with limit holdem, there are better books to study.

[Jim Easton]

Texas Hold'em, General

[bernie]

"My other leak is to know when I’m beat and letting go of a hand. Was hand 1, one of those?"

after i read that hand, i looked back at it....KTh or a smaller set....however, even after the A hits the turn, he isnt slowing down. you said he was a horrible player, not a maniac who goes out of control after the flop. i dont think he played that horrible on this hand though...what makes him a horrible player? loose standards preflop? is that it? just asking...

there are different types of bad players. dont just lump them all in. still keep track of how they play street by street....

the FH hand id have put one more bet in on the river...

hand 3....id bet....you dont have to win that often to be profitable here....and you get the added benefit of not having to show your hand after he folds...

b