Is this push worth the chips?

[Matt R.]

Party $10+1. Is this push with 77 worth the 200 chips in the pot? Calling station land minds abound at this level, which is making me think this might be a bad push. But I really really hate random limpers!

The output on the hand converter seems to be screwed up, but the preflop play should read UTG limps, Hero (UTG+1) pushes, UTG calls.


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

MP1 (t730)
MP2 (t930)
CO (t230)
Button (t1230)
SB (t2165)
BB (t625)
UTG (t1090)
Hero (t1000)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 7/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls t100, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, UTG calls t900.

Flop: (t1150) 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Turn: (t1150) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t1150) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t1150

[citanul]

i fold here.

those possible chips (250) in the pot, i don't believe are worth the risks here. there's many players left behind you, and you've got an UTG limper, which is usually, though not always, much more dangerous than some "random" limper. your hand just isn't that great considering an UTG limper and the number of players behind you. you might want to just do some hand calculations about the chances that someone behind you (including the limper) has a hand you don't want to be called by that they will call with. (this set may or may not include 88 or something, depending on your opposition.)

my decision might change to a push if the blinds are going up either next hand or on your bb.

there being calling stations behind you really do hurt you. you'd rather take much more high percentage shots from the button and behind than to take a likely "coinflip if called at best" spot like this.

citanul

[microbet]

I'm thinking 99+ for a push here.

[flyingmoose]

Could be a huge leak in my game, but I'm shoving this a good portion of the time. Make those nines, and I'm shoving every time.

[Myst]

Like anyting else in poker, it depends, mainly on position, type of opposition, stack size etc.

Here, I wouldnt dare make that push, even with 99 or TT. You are UTG+1, you have a chip stack of 1000, and you have an UTG limper. All three criteria combined together advocate a fold.

[flyingmoose]

[ QUOTE ]
i fold here.

those possible chips (250) in the pot, i don't believe are worth the risks here. there's many players left behind you, and you've got an UTG limper, which is usually, though not always, much more dangerous than some "random" limper. your hand just isn't that great considering an UTG limper and the number of players behind you. you might want to just do some hand calculations about the chances that someone behind you (including the limper) has a hand you don't want to be called by that they will call with. (this set may or may not include 88 or something, depending on your opposition.)

my decision might change to a push if the blinds are going up either next hand or on your bb.

there being calling stations behind you really do hurt you. you'd rather take much more high percentage shots from the button and behind than to take a likely "coinflip if called at best" spot like this.

citanul

[/ QUOTE ]

At an 11, I'm not too concerned about the UTG limper having a big hand. A mini-bet would scare me to death, though.

My main concern is that the UTG limper will "value call" his K9s.

[flyingmoose]

[ QUOTE ]
Like anyting else in poker, it depends, mainly on position, type of opposition, stack size etc.

Here, I wouldnt dare make that push, even with 99 or TT. You are UTG+1, you have a chip stack of 1000, and you have an UTG limper. All three criteria combined together advocate a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like I said, it could be a huge leak in my game. I think I'll stop making pushes like these for a while and see how I like it.

Here's why I was leaning toward a push, though: You have 8 players left at level 4 -- which is absurdly uncommon for an 11. They're probably much tighter than your typical 11 players, meaning you have a decent shot at taking this pot down uncontested.

[microbet]

So your pushing only JJ+ here?

I'm going with 99+, AK. I think push off overcards a lot of the time, win a lot of the time, get called by a lower pair a lot of the time and I think it adds up to being a little looser on pushing.

Anyone else?

[treeofwisdom7]

here maybe this might help.. i did the math for this theory a few days back

with 4 people left to act after you and the blinds T200 you would need 800-900 chips with 66 to push here.. if you think all 4 players are semi tight. so i believe this is a big -EV

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
here maybe this might help.. i did the math for this theory a few days back

with 4 people left to act after you and the blinds T200 you would need 800-900 chips with 66 to push here.. if you think all 4 players are semi tight. so i believe this is a big -EV

[/ QUOTE ]

I may not be thinking clearly with the pre-dinner low blood sugar and all, but I need more explanation to see how this proves anything about the original post or my post (which you may have just errantly replied to). Or even what you really meant at all or if you understand that often the more chips you have, the better a hand you need to push with.

[codewarrior]

You have 10BB, the push or fold are a coin toss here, weighted in favor of the push based on position and the stacks of the remaining players. Well played, bad luck....

[treeofwisdom7]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
here maybe this might help.. i did the math for this theory a few days back

with 4 people left to act after you and the blinds T200 you would need 800-900 chips with 66 to push here.. if you think all 4 players are semi tight. so i believe this is a big -EV

[/ QUOTE ]

I may not be thinking clearly with the pre-dinner low blood sugar and all, but I need more explanation to see how this proves anything about the original post or my post (which you may have just errantly replied to). Or even what you really meant at all or if you understand that often the more chips you have, the better a hand you need to push with.

[/ QUOTE ]

do you want my math or what im trying to say?

what im trying to say is even if it was 5 seated and he was pushing it would be wrong.

i posted the math a few days ago. but i think nobody wants to read my theory..

im just a dumb tree

[microbet]

At this point I'm pot-committed and will look at your math and your theory. I searched for your previous post and didn't find anything that I was confident was what you were referring to.

[treeofwisdom7]

[ QUOTE ]
At this point I'm pot-committed and will look at your math and your theory. I searched for your previous post and didn't find anything that I was confident was what you were referring to.

[/ QUOTE ]
oh lord searching for my [censored] is -EV
i have noidea where it is . i would have to look under every post i put up in the last 3 weeks.

if you really want to know how i got this figure pm me and i'll send it