Can I fold this? A Canterbury 8/16 hand...

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

Unusually tight 8/16 at Canterbury. This game usually plays California-style, but the blinds have been chopped three times this orbit alone. Nemesis sits to my left, and we've been bitching about how bad the game is. He is up for a table-change ahead of me, and seems to be a tight and solid player. I've been here for two orbits, and have seen him in one pot. Here's the hand:

EP limps in and all fold to hero in MP with KK. I raise and Nemesis immediately three-bets. EP comes along for the ride, and I four-bet. Nemesis puts on the 5-bet cap, and EP tags along. At this point, I really don't know what EP has, could be any two suited broadway cards, a medium A or a middling pair. I can't see Nemesis playing this way with anything other than AA or KK, maybe QQ, or an overplayed JJ or AKs.

Flop is a rainbow of raggy cards. EP bets out, I riaise and Nemesis three-bets. EP folds. I'm worried about AA, but Nemesis has seen me press with an unimproved AK, so he may have something short of AA, and I'm ahead of any other hand. Thinking AA most likely, I call.

Turn is a Q. I check and Nemesis bets. Now I'm behind the two most likely hands, and wonder if I can fold safely. Given the size of the pot, I call, then check and call the brick that hits the river.

How'd I do?

[etizzle]

nh, assuming he knows you are a good player (which you seemed to imply).

[goofball]

I just did the math quickly in my head so scream dn correct if i'm wrong but it looks like you're gettin 6.5-1 on your call down.

Obvisouly if you think his range is only AA-QQ you have an easy fold. If you throw in 2 AKs you're ahead of those 2 hands, and 8 AA/QQ. getting 4-1 it looks good, if you can cut his likely hood of haveing AKs based on the action it's a fold. Toss JJ into his 5betting range and we now have 8 hand we're ahead of (and 8 we're behind). Even adjusting for the decreased likelihood of AKs and Jj based on the action I think we have a call down.

However, especially since he knows you and he's a tight solid player, I'm comfortable putting him on AA-QQ here enough to fold.

[jgorham]

Pokerstove it out. I am not at home, but what I usually do for situations like this is give my opponent AA-QQ and look at equity (it will be quite small). Then I add in JJ (which would be enough to call). Looking at this you can determine what % chance you would need of your opponent playing JJ or even TT in this manner. Compare that to your exact read of him, etc.

In this hand though, I think it is a calldown as you really don't have that much info on this player, so JJ seems pretty likely.

[Moneyline]

I wouldn't fold either. If you knew the guy's playing habits better, then I think you can consider folding. Just playing for two orbits though, I think you have to take this to the showdown. Sometimes, especially live, I've noticed that a seemingly tight player will occasionally go bananas with a random hand in a tight game either to stimulate action on later hands or to put a move on a player he thinks is a rock. Since you were "bitching" about the game, your opponent knows that you are tight and may think you can't handle playing in a tight game. He may have even initiated this conversation to set up a big bluff.

While this probably isn't the best strategy to use, there is enough of a possibility of it to make calling down automatic.

Just my opinion...

[gaming_mouse]

I think it's very unlikely that he plays AK or JJ this way. Since you don't have effective odds to call down hoping he has KK too, I fold the turn.

[BigBaitsim (milo)]

Villian has QQ for the turned set.

Now, lets assume that I should have folded this hand, recognizing that I'm almost certainly near-dead to AA or QQ, but instead assume that the turn is a 4 instead of a Q and he continues to press? Call down hoping for QQ/KK, or fold?

[Gabe]

you can figure it out yourself. you need to weight the non-AA QQ possible hands, then do the math. (you have to make an effort to divorce yourself from the results when you apply probability to him having say JJ.) don't forget your two outer.

[college_boy]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's very unlikely that he plays AK or JJ this way. Since you don't have effective odds to call down hoping he has KK too, I fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see JJ played this way quite a bit.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's very unlikely that he plays AK or JJ this way. Since you don't have effective odds to call down hoping he has KK too, I fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see JJ played this way quite a bit.

[/ QUOTE ]

you see 2+2ers play JJ this way quite a bit?? i don't. at least not if they are playing seriously.